FRANCE › LIGUE 2
18.04.2026 12:00
Stade de l'Aube
Referee: F. Benchabane
Estac Troyes
Match Timeline
Boulogne
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Adrien Monfray
Estac Troyes
⚽
47'
T. Bentayeb · Assist: Y. Titi
Estac Troyes
🟨
62'
Siad Gourville
Boulogne
🔄
66'
N. Fatar ↔ V. Burlet
Boulogne
🔄
66'
S. Duflos ↔ N. Binet
Boulogne
🔄
73'
T. Bentayeb ↔ R. Ripart
Estac Troyes
🔄
76'
J. Martin ↔ C. Fatou
Boulogne
🔄
82'
K. Diawara ↔ M. Detourbet
Estac Troyes
🔄
85'
J. Bultel ↔ A. Pinot
Boulogne
🔄
86'
A. El Farissi ↔ S. Paillard
Boulogne
🔄
87'
M. Adeline ↔ A. Phliponeau
Estac Troyes

Estac Troyes vs Boulogne Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.9%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Estac Troyes Win 57.4%
Draw 7.3%
Boulogne Win 35.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Estac Troyes1.61
Boulogne1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Estac Troyes Estac Troyes
WWDLW
64 GF / 37 GA
Boulogne Boulogne
WLDWL
32 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.83
Average Goals Scored
1.03
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
20
BTTS Yes
15
20
Over 2.5
14
5.03
Shots on Goal
3.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Estac Troyes Estac Troyes 35 matches
Boulogne Boulogne 31 matches
Estac Troyes Statistic Boulogne
21 Wins 9
7 Draws 10
7 Losses 12
64 Goals For 32
37 Goals Against 40
1.83 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
20 BTTS Yes 15
27 Over 1.5 18
20 Over 2.5 14
11 Over 3.5 7
12 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 11
5.03 Shots On Goal 3.43
13.29 Total Shots 10.4
4.35 Corners 4.03
50.4% Ball Possession 44.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Estac Troyes's more proactive style and Boulogne's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Estac Troyes arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 58 points compared to Boulogne in 12 on 36, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Boulogne. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Estac Troyes Analysis

Estac Troyes approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 58 points after 30 outings. The return of 17 wins, 7 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 51:30, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through T. Bentayeb (16 goals), M. Adeline (9 goals), Renaud Ripart (5 goals), with creative support from M. Adeline (8 assists), Mathys Detourbet (5 assists), T. Bentayeb (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 12 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Boulogne Analysis

Boulogne are currently 12 in the standings with 36 points from 30 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 9 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 30:38 reflects mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking weight is carried by C. Fatou (6 goals), Amine El Farissi (4 goals), N. Fatar (3 goals), with creative support from Amine El Farissi (3 assists), A. Platret (3 assists), C. Fatou (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Estac Troyes won 3 times, Boulogne won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:7 from Estac Troyes's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.17 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.7%)
Predicted formations: Estac Troyes 4-1-4-1 / Boulogne 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Estac Troyes wins 3, draws 1, Boulogne wins 2

Standings

Ligue 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 20 7 7 60:33 27 67
L W W W L
2 34 16 14 4 50:31 19 62
W D D W D
3 34 18 6 10 59:38 21 60
W L L L W
4 34 16 10 8 45:37 8 58
D W W L W
5 34 15 13 6 45:39 6 58
W W D W W
6 34 14 14 6 53:35 18 56
W D D W D
7 34 15 7 12 49:39 10 52
L W W W D
8 34 14 9 11 41:31 10 51
D L W W D
9 34 12 9 13 48:62 -14 45
L L L W W
10 34 11 10 13 53:45 8 43
L L W L L
11 34 10 10 14 42:49 -7 40
L L L L D
12 34 8 15 11 33:39 -6 39
W W D L D
13 34 9 10 15 38:44 -6 37
W W D L D
14 34 9 10 15 35:52 -17 37
W W D L D
15 34 9 9 16 34:49 -15 36
L L L L D
16 34 6 14 14 30:48 -18 32
W D W L D
17 34 5 13 16 23:39 -16 28
L W D W L
18 34 6 6 22 37:65 -28 24
L L L L L
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