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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA B
01.10.2026 20:30
Estadio Polideportivo Sur
Envigado
Match Timeline
Orsomarso
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
43'
Orsomarso
Orsomarso
🔄
46'
M. Cuero ↔ D. Dawson
Envigado
🔄
46'
J. Hernandez ↔ B. Campaz
Orsomarso
🟥
51'
D. Dawson
Envigado
🟨
52'
Envigado
Envigado
🟨
53'
Orsomarso
Orsomarso
🔄
53'
A. Rodriguez ↔ M. Betancurt
Envigado
🔄
60'
J. Barreiro ↔ J. Munoz
Orsomarso
🔄
60'
S. Arrechea ↔ R. A. Benitez Hernandez
Orsomarso
🔄
67'
Y. Rodallega ↔ E. Londono
Envigado
🟨
74'
Envigado
Envigado
🟨
75'
Orsomarso
Orsomarso
🔄
75'
K. M. Gomez ↔ D. Matamba
Orsomarso
🟨
78'
Orsomarso
Orsomarso
🔄
81'
S. Acuna ↔ J. Palacio
Envigado

Envigado vs Orsomarso Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.6%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 56%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.6%
- ▥
BTTS No
56%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Envigado Win 68.6%
Draw 9.2%
Orsomarso Win 22.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Envigado1.27
Orsomarso0.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
Envigado Envigado
WWDLW
45 GF / 29 GA
Orsomarso Orsomarso
WLDWL
20 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
0.83
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
17
BTTS Yes
7
15
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Envigado Envigado 33 matches
Orsomarso Orsomarso 24 matches
Envigado Statistic Orsomarso
16 Wins 6
9 Draws 8
8 Losses 10
45 Goals For 20
29 Goals Against 27
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 0.83
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
17 BTTS Yes 7
23 Over 1.5 14
15 Over 2.5 6
4 Over 3.5 4
14 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 12
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Envigado's more proactive style and Orsomarso's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Envigado arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 51 points compared to Orsomarso in 12 on 26, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Orsomarso arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Orsomarso having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Orsomarso.

Envigado Analysis

Envigado come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 51 points from 31 matches. Their overall return of 14 wins, 9 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 40:28 reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Orsomarso Analysis

Orsomarso approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 26 points from 23 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 8 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 17:23 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Envigado won 4 times, Orsomarso won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:0 from Envigado's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.8%)
H2H summary: Envigado wins 4, draws 0, Orsomarso wins 0

Standings

Primera B: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 12 2 1 29:13 16 38
W W W W W
2 15 10 2 3 27:15 12 32
W L W W W
3 15 9 4 2 20:10 10 31
W W L D W
4 15 9 2 4 24:14 10 29
W W L W W
5 15 7 5 3 23:15 8 26
L L W D W
6 15 6 5 4 16:14 2 23
W W D W L
7 15 6 2 7 21:20 1 20
W L W L W
8 15 5 5 5 15:14 1 20
L W W L D
9 15 4 7 4 13:14 -1 19
D D L W L
10 15 4 5 6 13:17 -4 17
D L L D W
11 15 4 5 6 13:17 -4 17
L W W L D
12 15 2 7 6 15:20 -5 13
L D D D D
13 15 2 7 6 14:19 -5 13
D L D L D
14 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
D W L L L
15 15 1 6 8 12:23 -11 9
L L L D W
16 15 1 4 10 9:23 -14 7
L L L L L
Promotion - Primera B (Apertura - Quadrangular)