ECUADOR LIGA PRO
24.05.2026 20:30
Estadio George Capwell
Referee: Alex Fabricio Cajas Torres, Ecuador
Emelec
Match Timeline
Macara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
21'
L. Klimowicz · Assist: J. Ruiz
Emelec
🟨
33'
José Luis Marrufo
Macara
39'
L. Klimowicz · Assist: F. Pizzini
Emelec
🔄
46'
T. Chamba ↔ M. Miranda
Macara
🔄
46'
J. Espinoza ↔ M. Tello
Macara
🟨
53'
Luis Ayala
Macara
🔄
61'
F. Pizzini ↔ A. Mina
Emelec
🔄
65'
L. Klimowicz ↔ J. Gonzaga
Emelec
🔄
65'
J. Ruiz ↔ A. Viteri
Emelec
🔄
65'
J. Klinger ↔ T. Espinoza
Macara
🔄
65'
J. Chala ↔ F. Posse
Macara
🟨
71'
Angelo Mina
Emelec
🔄
76'
A. Mina ↔ S. Quintero
Emelec
🔄
77'
G. Napoli ↔ B. Tobar
Emelec
🔄
83'
J. Marrufo ↔ M. Medranda
Macara

Emelec vs Macara Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 56.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
56.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Emelec Win 43.6%
Draw 16.8%
Macara Win 39.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Emelec0.9
Macara1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Emelec Emelec
WWDLW
10 GF / 16 GA
Macara Macara
WLDWL
16 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
0.71
Average Goals Scored
1
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
5
BTTS Yes
7
2
Over 2.5
8
3.14
Shots on Goal
4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Emelec Emelec 14 matches
Macara Macara 16 matches
Emelec Statistic Macara
4 Wins 5
4 Draws 4
6 Losses 7
10 Goals For 16
16 Goals Against 19
0.71 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
5 BTTS Yes 7
10 Over 1.5 11
2 Over 2.5 8
1 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 5
3.14 Shots On Goal 4.5
11.21 Total Shots 13.21
5.07 Corners 5.21
49.5% Ball Possession 50.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Emelec expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Macara in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Macara having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Macara arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Macara.

Emelec Analysis

Emelec are currently 13 in the standings with 16 points from 14 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 10:16 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Luca Klimowicz (2 goals), R. Caicedo (2 goals), I. Guerrico (1 goals), with creative support from A. Mina (2 assists), Luca Klimowicz (1 assists), I. Guerrico (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Macara Analysis

Macara approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 19 points from 14 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 14:15 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Franco Posse (4 goals), F. Paz (3 goals), M. Tello (2 goals), with creative support from F. Paz (2 assists), J. Klinger (2 assists), Franco Posse (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Emelec won 5 times, Macara won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:13 from Emelec's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.2%)
Predicted formations: Emelec 4-1-4-1 / Macara 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Emelec wins 5, draws 6, Macara wins 4

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 2 3 66:28 38 68
D W W W W
2 27 14 5 8 31:26 5 47
W W L W W
3 27 13 6 8 35:27 8 45
W L D W W
4 27 12 8 7 47:25 22 44
D W D L W
5 27 12 5 10 27:22 5 41
L W W L W
6 27 10 9 8 28:22 6 39
L W D L D
7 27 10 7 10 29:30 -1 37
L W D W W
8 27 9 9 9 33:34 -1 36
W D D W W
9 27 9 9 9 27:30 -3 36
W W D D L
10 27 9 8 10 29:30 -1 35
L L W L D
11 27 9 8 10 23:32 -9 32
W L W D L
12 27 9 5 13 23:35 -12 32
L D L L L
13 27 8 6 13 31:41 -10 30
L L W D L
14 27 9 2 16 26:38 -12 29
W L L L L
15 27 6 6 15 17:29 -12 24
L L L D L
16 27 5 5 17 14:37 -23 20
W L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs