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FRANCE › LIGUE 2
12.10.2026 18:45
55'
3 - 1
Stade Gaston-Gérard
Referee: Marc Bollengier
Dijon
Live Timeline
Metz
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
19'
H. Vargas Ríos · Assist: Paul Bellon
Dijon
🟨
23'
Jean Ruiz
Metz
⚽
24'
Ange Lago
Dijon
⚽
32'
Júlio Tavares · Assist: Paul Bellon
Dijon
⚽
44'
Pape Moussa Fall · Assist: Jessy Deminguet
Metz

Dijon vs Metz Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.5%
Odds 2.83
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.74
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.5%
2.83 ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
1.57 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.74 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.9%
1.52 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Dijon Win 56.5%
Draw 6.5%
Metz Win 37%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dijon1.72
Metz1.82
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dijon Dijon
WWDLW
29 GF / 19 GA
Metz Metz
WLDWL
34 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
2.07
Average Goals Scored
2.13
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
12
BTTS Yes
13
9
Over 2.5
10
5.43
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dijon Dijon 14 matches
Metz Metz 16 matches
Dijon Statistic Metz
6 Wins 7
6 Draws 6
2 Losses 3
29 Goals For 34
19 Goals Against 19
2.07 Avg Goals Scored 2.13
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
12 BTTS Yes 13
13 Over 1.5 14
9 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 7
1 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 2
5.43 Shots On Goal 4
12.71 Total Shots 13.43
3.57 Corners 4.57
53.6% Ball Possession 50.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Metz's more proactive style and Dijon's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Metz. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Dijon expected to line up in 4-1-3-2 and Metz in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Metz having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Dijon Analysis

Dijon are currently 9 in the standings with 9 points from 7 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 10:10 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Júlio Tavares (3 goals), Samy Olivier Chouchane (3 goals), J. Marié (1 goals), with creative support from Júlio Tavares (1 assists), J. Marié (1 assists), T. Dong (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Metz Analysis

Placed 5 with 10 points from 7 outings, Metz continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 10:7 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by P. Fall (5 goals), J. Deminguet (2 goals), T. Savanier (1 goals), with creative support from J. Deminguet (2 assists), T. Savanier (2 assists), F. Miguel (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Dijon won 4 times, Metz won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:22 from Dijon's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.79 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.5%)
Predicted formations: Dijon 4-1-3-2 / Metz 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Dijon wins 4, draws 6, Metz wins 4

Standings

Ligue 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 21:8 13 19
W D L W W
2 8 5 2 1 12:9 3 17
W W W W L
3 8 4 3 1 8:5 3 15
W D W L D
4 8 3 5 0 15:9 6 14
D D W D W
5 8 4 1 3 9:7 2 13
W W L L W
6 8 4 1 3 10:9 1 13
W L L W D
7 8 3 2 3 9:8 1 11
W W L D D
8 8 2 5 1 5:6 -1 11
D D W D D
9
Metz Away
7 2 4 1 10:7 3 10
D L W D D
10
Dijon Home
7 2 3 2 10:10 0 9
W W D L D
11 8 2 2 4 10:13 -3 8
L L W D D
12 8 2 2 4 10:13 -3 8
L L W D L
13 8 2 2 4 9:13 -4 8
D W L W D
14 8 2 2 4 8:13 -5 8
L D W L W
15 8 2 1 5 14:18 -4 7
L L L L D
16 8 0 6 2 4:6 -2 6
D L D D D
17 8 0 6 2 6:9 -3 6
L D D D D
18 8 1 2 5 10:17 -7 5
L D L L L
Promotion - Ligue 1
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Promotion - Play Offs: Final)
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3