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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
17.10.2026 14:00
Pride Park

Derby vs Stoke City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 79.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
79.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Derby Win 12.4%
Draw 8.4%
Stoke City Win 79.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Derby1.19
Stoke City1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Derby Derby
WWDLW
16 GF / 23 GA
Stoke City Stoke City
WLDWL
20 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.53
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
9
BTTS Yes
10
8
Over 2.5
8
3.67
Shots on Goal
3.7

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Derby Derby 15 matches
Stoke City Stoke City 14 matches
Derby Statistic Stoke City
3 Wins 6
4 Draws 3
8 Losses 5
16 Goals For 20
23 Goals Against 19
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
9 BTTS Yes 10
13 Over 1.5 11
8 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 1
3.67 Shots On Goal 3.7
12 Total Shots 11.4
5.78 Corners 4.4
48.9% Ball Possession 43.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Stoke City's more proactive style and Derby's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Stoke City. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Stoke City carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 13 points while Derby sit 22 on 5, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Stoke City look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Derby expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Stoke City in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Stoke City having the stronger overall control.

Derby Analysis

Derby approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 22 with 5 points from 8 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 7:14, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through B. Clark (1 goals), S. Szmodics (1 goals), C. Morris (1 goals), with creative support from B. Clark (1 assists), S. Szmodics (1 assists), C. Morris (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Stoke City Analysis

From their first 8 matches, Stoke City have collected 13 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, while the 13:12 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Bocat (2 goals), E. Galbraith (2 goals), S. Gallagher (2 goals), with creative support from E. Bocat (2 assists), E. Galbraith (1 assists), S. Gallagher (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Derby won 5 times, Stoke City won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:14 from Derby's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.6%)
Predicted formations: Derby 4-2-3-1 / Stoke City 3-5-2
H2H summary: Derby wins 5, draws 4, Stoke City wins 5

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:7 9 23
W W W W L
2 10 6 3 1 20:14 6 21
W W D D W
3 10 4 5 1 17:11 6 17
W W D W L
4 10 5 2 3 12:10 2 17
W L L D W
5 9 4 4 1 23:12 11 16
D D W W W
6 10 5 1 4 17:16 1 16
L W W W D
7 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
W W D W L
8 9 3 5 1 11:8 3 14
D D D D L
9 9 4 2 3 16:14 2 14
L L W W D
10 10 4 2 4 16:16 0 14
L W D D L
11 10 4 2 4 12:14 -2 14
L D W L L
12 10 3 5 2 10:13 -3 14
D D L D D
13 9 5 2 2 20:10 10 13
W L W W D
14 10 4 1 5 15:18 -3 13
W L W W L
15 9 3 3 3 12:11 1 12
W L L W L
16 10 2 5 3 11:15 -4 11
L D W L D
17 9 3 2 4 7:11 -4 11
L L W W D
18 10 2 4 4 16:15 1 10
W L W L D
19 9 3 0 6 17:19 -2 9
L L L W W
20 8 2 2 4 9:11 -2 8
L D D W L
21 10 1 5 4 15:19 -4 8
D W D L D
22 10 2 2 6 8:19 -11 8
L L L L W
23
Derby Home
9 1 3 5 8:15 -7 6
D D L L L
24 10 1 1 8 8:20 -12 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One