ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
02.05.2026 11:30
Pride Park
Referee: T. Nield
Derby
Match Timeline
Sheffield Utd
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
S. Szmodics
Derby
🟨
18'
Sondre Langås
Derby
🟨
26'
Matt Clarke
Derby
🟨
45+2'
Harrison Burrows
Sheffield Utd
🟨
54'
Japhet Tanganga
Sheffield Utd
🔄
60'
J. Banel ↔ B. Clark
Derby
62'
T. Cannon · Assist: P. Bamford
Sheffield Utd
🔄
64'
O. Arblaster ↔ J. Rothwell
Sheffield Utd
🔄
64'
T. Cannon ↔ T. Chong
Sheffield Utd
🔄
64'
F. Seriki ↔ K. Hoever
Sheffield Utd
🔄
68'
B. Brereton Diaz ↔ M. Johnston
Derby
69'
S. Peck · Assist: G. Hamer
Sheffield Utd
🔄
72'
G. Hamer ↔ D. Ings
Sheffield Utd
🔄
74'
C. Forsyth ↔ O. Fraulo
Derby
🔄
75'
D. Ozoh ↔ L. Salvesen
Derby
🔄
85'
C. O'Hare ↔ J. Riedewald
Sheffield Utd
🟨
89'
Bobby Clark
Derby
🟨
90+7'
Sammie Szmodics
Derby
🟨
90+7'
Tahith Chong
Sheffield Utd

Derby vs Sheffield Utd Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 76.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 71.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
76.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
71.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Derby Win 65.9%
Draw 0%
Sheffield Utd Win 34.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Derby1.48
Sheffield Utd1.4
Recent Form (Last 5)
Derby Derby
WWDLW
67 GF / 60 GA
Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd
WLDWL
67 GF / 69 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.46
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
30
BTTS Yes
26
24
Over 2.5
27
3.5
Shots on Goal
4.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Derby Derby 46 matches
Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 46 matches
Derby Statistic Sheffield Utd
20 Wins 17
9 Draws 6
17 Losses 23
67 Goals For 67
60 Goals Against 69
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.46
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
30 BTTS Yes 26
35 Over 1.5 34
24 Over 2.5 27
12 Over 3.5 16
12 Clean Sheets 10
4 Failed To Score 11
3.5 Shots On Goal 4.2
10.76 Total Shots 13.57
4.52 Corners 6.78
44.1% Ball Possession 53%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Derby's more proactive style and Sheffield Utd's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Sheffield Utd arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sheffield Utd. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Derby Analysis

From their first 45 matches, Derby have collected 69 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 20 wins, 9 draws, and 16 defeats, together with a 66:57 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through C. Morris (12 goals), P. Agyemang (10 goals), B. Brereton Diaz (7 goals), with creative support from J. Ward (8 assists), C. Elder (5 assists), Matthew Clarke (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Sheffield Utd Analysis

Sheffield Utd approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 57 points from 45 matches. Across the season they have posted 17 wins, 6 draws, and 22 defeats, and the 64:65 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on P. Bamford (12 goals), C. O'Hare (9 goals), Andre Brooks (6 goals), with creative support from Gustavo Hamer (11 assists), C. O'Hare (7 assists), F. Seriki (5 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 8 wins, 2 draws, and 12 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with S. Sachdev unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Derby won 3 times, Sheffield Utd won 9 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:21 from Derby's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.62 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Derby 4-2-3-1 / Sheffield Utd 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Derby 0, Sheffield Utd 1
H2H summary: Derby wins 3, draws 1, Sheffield Utd wins 9

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8
Derby Home
46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
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Relegation