ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
18.04.2026 11:30
Pride Park
Referee: S. Allison
Derby
Match Timeline
Oxford United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
22'
J. Banel · Assist: S. Szmodics
Derby
🟨
26'
David Ozoh
Derby
🔄
62'
J. Donley ↔ Jeon Jin-Woo
Oxford United
🔄
62'
M. Peart-Harris ↔ A. Emakhu
Oxford United
🔄
71'
D. Ozoh ↔ O. Fraulo
Derby
🔄
71'
D. Sanderson ↔ S. Langas
Derby
🟨
76'
Sammie Szmodics
Derby
🟨
80'
Cameron Brannagan
Oxford United
🔄
84'
Y. E. Konak ↔ M. Harris
Oxford United
🔄
86'
J. Banel ↔ M. Johnston
Derby
🟨
87'
Oscar Fraulo
Derby
🟨
88'
Derry Murkin
Derby
🔄
89'
B. Spencer ↔ W. Vaulks
Oxford United
🔄
90+1'
D. Murkin ↔ C. Forsyth
Derby
🔄
90+1'
S. Szmodics ↔ L. Salvesen
Derby

Derby vs Oxford United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 72.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 57.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
72.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
57.8%
-
Probability Distribution
Derby Win 69.9%
Draw 8.2%
Oxford United Win 21.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Derby1.37
Oxford United1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Derby Derby
WWDLW
62 GF / 56 GA
Oxford United Oxford United
WLDWL
42 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
0.95
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
28
BTTS Yes
24
22
Over 2.5
20
3.44
Shots on Goal
3.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Derby Derby 43 matches
Oxford United Oxford United 44 matches
Derby Statistic Oxford United
18 Wins 10
9 Draws 15
16 Losses 19
62 Goals For 42
56 Goals Against 56
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 0.95
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
28 BTTS Yes 24
33 Over 1.5 30
22 Over 2.5 20
11 Over 3.5 8
11 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 17
3.44 Shots On Goal 3.43
10.63 Total Shots 11.89
4.44 Corners 4
43.5% Ball Possession 40.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Derby's more proactive style and Oxford United's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Derby arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 63 points compared to Oxford United in 22 on 44, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Oxford United. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Derby Analysis

Derby sit 8 with 63 points after 42 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 18 wins, 9 draws, and 15 losses, while the 61:53 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on C. Morris (12 goals), P. Agyemang (10 goals), B. Brereton Diaz (7 goals), with creative support from J. Ward (7 assists), C. Elder (5 assists), P. Agyemang (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. Although they are without C. Elder, J. Widell Zetterstrom, B. Clark, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

Oxford United Analysis

With 44 points from 42 games and a place of 22, Oxford United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 10 wins, 14 draws, and 18 defeats with a 41:54 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on W. Lankshear (9 goals), C. Brannagan (6 goals), Ciaron Brown (3 goals), with creative support from B. De Keersmaecker (5 assists), M. Helik (4 assists), C. Brannagan (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without B. De Keersmaecker, T. Goodrham, G. Leigh, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Derby won 4 times, Oxford United won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:8 from Derby's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.8%)
Predicted formations: Derby 4-2-3-1 / Oxford United 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Derby 3, Oxford United 3
H2H summary: Derby wins 4, draws 2, Oxford United wins 2

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8
Derby Home
46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
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Relegation