Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
69.9%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
72.4%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.8%
|
- |
Derby
Oxford United
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Derby
43 matches
Oxford United
44 matches
| Derby | Statistic | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wins | 10 |
| 9 | Draws | 15 |
| 16 | Losses | 19 |
| 62 | Goals For | 42 |
| 56 | Goals Against | 56 |
| 1.44 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.95 |
| 1.3 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.27 |
| 28 | BTTS Yes | 24 |
| 33 | Over 1.5 | 30 |
| 22 | Over 2.5 | 20 |
| 11 | Over 3.5 | 8 |
| 11 | Clean Sheets | 8 |
| 4 | Failed To Score | 17 |
| 3.44 | Shots On Goal | 3.43 |
| 10.63 | Total Shots | 11.89 |
| 4.44 | Corners | 4 |
| 43.5% | Ball Possession | 40.5% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Derby's more proactive style and Oxford United's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Derby arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 63 points compared to Oxford United in 22 on 44, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Oxford United. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.
Derby sit 8 with 63 points after 42 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 18 wins, 9 draws, and 15 losses, while the 61:53 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on C. Morris (12 goals), P. Agyemang (10 goals), B. Brereton Diaz (7 goals), with creative support from J. Ward (7 assists), C. Elder (5 assists), P. Agyemang (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. Although they are without C. Elder, J. Widell Zetterstrom, B. Clark, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.
With 44 points from 42 games and a place of 22, Oxford United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 10 wins, 14 draws, and 18 defeats with a 41:54 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on W. Lankshear (9 goals), C. Brannagan (6 goals), Ciaron Brown (3 goals), with creative support from B. De Keersmaecker (5 assists), M. Helik (4 assists), C. Brannagan (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without B. De Keersmaecker, T. Goodrham, G. Leigh, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.
Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Derby won 4 times, Oxford United won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:8 from Derby's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.
Derby
2
0
5
5
8
6
Lineups
Derby
SC Freiburg
Derby
Alfreton Town
Derby
Sheffield Utd
Derby
QPR
Derby
Norwich
Derby
Southampton
Derby
Stoke City
Derby
Coventry
Derby
Birmingham
Derby
Portsmouth
Derby
Millwall
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
Derby
Blackburn
Derby
Hull City
Derby
Watford
Derby
Swansea
Derby
Ipswich
Derby
Bristol City
Derby
West Brom
Derby
Charlton
Oxford United
Aldershot Town
Oxford United
Millwall
Oxford United
Sheffield Wednesday
Oxford United
Wrexham
Oxford United
Watford
Oxford United
Portsmouth
Oxford United
Hull City
Oxford United
Southampton
Oxford United
Charlton
Oxford United
Blackburn
Oxford United
Preston
Oxford United
West Brom
Oxford United
Stoke City
Oxford United
Middlesbrough
Oxford United
Sunderland
Oxford United
Norwich
Oxford United
Coventry
Oxford United
Sheffield Utd
Oxford United
Birmingham
Oxford United
Leicester
Derby
Sheffield Utd
Derby
Stoke City
Derby
Birmingham
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
Derby
Blackburn
Derby
Swansea
Derby
Ipswich
Derby
West Brom
Derby
Leeds
Derby
Wrexham
Derby
Middlesbrough
Derby
Portsmouth
Derby
Millwall
Derby
Leicester
Derby
Watford
Derby
Hull City
Derby
QPR
Derby
Norwich
Derby
Southampton
Derby
Charlton
Oxford United
Aldershot Town
Oxford United
Millwall
Oxford United
Portsmouth
Oxford United
Southampton
Oxford United
Preston
Oxford United
Stoke City
Oxford United
Middlesbrough
Oxford United
Coventry
Oxford United
Sheffield Utd
Oxford United
Leicester
Oxford United
Milton Keynes Dons
Oxford United
Ipswich
Oxford United
Charlton
Oxford United
Blackburn
Oxford United
Swansea
Oxford United
Norwich
Oxford United
West Brom
Oxford United
Sheffield Wednesday
Oxford United
Wrexham
Oxford United
Watford
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 97:45 | 52 | 95 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 2 | 46 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 80:47 | 33 | 84 |
W
D
D
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 46 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 64:49 | 15 | 83 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 4 | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 82:56 | 26 | 80 |
W
D
W
D
D
|
|
| 5 | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 72:47 | 25 | 80 |
L
L
D
D
W
|
|
| 6 | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 70:66 | 4 | 73 |
W
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 7 | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69:65 | 4 | 71 |
D
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 8 |
Derby
Home
|
46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 67:59 | 8 | 69 |
L
W
L
W
L
|
| 9 | 46 | 19 | 8 | 19 | 63:56 | 7 | 65 |
L
D
W
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 57:56 | 1 | 64 |
D
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 11 | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 57:59 | -2 | 64 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 12 | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 59:59 | 0 | 62 |
W
L
D
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 66:66 | 0 | 60 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 14 | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 55:62 | -7 | 60 |
L
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 46 | 16 | 10 | 20 | 61:73 | -12 | 58 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 16 | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53:65 | -12 | 57 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 51:56 | -5 | 55 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 18 | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 49:64 | -15 | 55 |
D
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 19 | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 44:58 | -14 | 53 |
L
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 20 | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 42:56 | -14 | 52 |
L
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 21 | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 48:58 | -10 | 51 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 22 |
Oxford United
Away
|
46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 45:59 | -14 | 47 |
L
W
L
L
W
|
| 23 | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 58:68 | -10 | 46 |
W
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 24 | 46 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 29:89 | -60 | 0 |
W
L
L
D
D
|