ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Pride Park
Referee: S. Allison
Derby
Match Timeline
Oxford United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
22'
J. Banel · Assist: S. Szmodics
Derby
🟨
26'
David Ozoh
Derby
🔄
62'
J. Donley ↔ Jeon Jin-Woo
Oxford United
🔄
62'
M. Peart-Harris ↔ A. Emakhu
Oxford United
🔄
71'
D. Ozoh ↔ O. Fraulo
Derby
🔄
71'
D. Sanderson ↔ S. Langas
Derby
🟨
76'
Sammie Szmodics
Derby
🟨
80'
Cameron Brannagan
Oxford United
🔄
84'
Y. E. Konak ↔ M. Harris
Oxford United
🔄
86'
J. Banel ↔ M. Johnston
Derby
🟨
87'
Oscar Fraulo
Derby
🟨
88'
Derry Murkin
Derby
🔄
89'
B. Spencer ↔ W. Vaulks
Oxford United
🔄
90+1'
D. Murkin ↔ C. Forsyth
Derby
🔄
90+1'
S. Szmodics ↔ L. Salvesen
Derby

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 72.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 57.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
72.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
57.8%
-
Probability Distribution
Derby Win 69.9%
Draw 8.2%
Oxford United Win 21.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Derby1.37
Oxford United1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Derby Derby
WWDLW
62 GF / 56 GA
Oxford United Oxford United
WLDWL
42 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
0.95
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
28
BTTS Yes
24
22
Over 2.5
20
3.44
Shots on Goal
3.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Derby Derby 43 matches
Oxford United Oxford United 44 matches
Derby Statistic Oxford United
18 Wins 10
9 Draws 15
16 Losses 19
62 Goals For 42
56 Goals Against 56
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 0.95
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
28 BTTS Yes 24
33 Over 1.5 30
22 Over 2.5 20
11 Over 3.5 8
11 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 17
3.44 Shots On Goal 3.43
10.63 Total Shots 11.89
4.44 Corners 4
43.5% Ball Possession 40.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Derby's more proactive style and Oxford United's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Derby arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 63 points compared to Oxford United in 22 on 44, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Oxford United. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Derby Analysis

Derby sit 8 with 63 points after 42 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 18 wins, 9 draws, and 15 losses, while the 61:53 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on C. Morris (12 goals), P. Agyemang (10 goals), B. Brereton Diaz (7 goals), with creative support from J. Ward (7 assists), C. Elder (5 assists), P. Agyemang (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. Although they are without C. Elder, J. Widell Zetterstrom, B. Clark, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

Oxford United Analysis

With 44 points from 42 games and a place of 22, Oxford United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 10 wins, 14 draws, and 18 defeats with a 41:54 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on W. Lankshear (9 goals), C. Brannagan (6 goals), Ciaron Brown (3 goals), with creative support from B. De Keersmaecker (5 assists), M. Helik (4 assists), C. Brannagan (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without B. De Keersmaecker, T. Goodrham, G. Leigh, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Derby won 4 times, Oxford United won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:8 from Derby's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.8%)
Predicted formations: Derby 4-2-3-1 / Oxford United 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Derby 3, Oxford United 3
H2H summary: Derby wins 4, draws 2, Oxford United wins 2
Stats
Derby Derby
Oxford United Oxford United
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
0
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
8
Blocked Shots
6
7 Corner Kicks 3
14 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 2
67% Ball Possession 33%
15 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Goal 0
5 Shots off Goal 5
8 Blocked Shots 6
8 Shots insidebox 5
7 Shots outsidebox 6
2 Goalkeeper Saves 1
507 Total passes 247
440 Passes accurate 180
1.03 expected_goals 0.67
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Derby
Formation
Oxford United
J. Widell Zetterstrom
J. Widell Zetterstrom
J. Ward
J. Ward
D. Sanderson
D. Sanderson
M. Clarke
M. Clarke
D. Murkin
D. Murkin
L. Travis
L. Travis
D. Ozoh
D. Ozoh
B. Brereton Diaz
B. Brereton Diaz
S. Szmodics
🎯
S. Szmodics
J. Banel
J. Banel
C. Morris
C. Morris
J. Cumming
J. Cumming
S. Long
S. Long
M. Helik
M. Helik
C. Brown
C. Brown
B. Spencer
B. Spencer
Y. E. Konak
Y. E. Konak
C. Brannagan
C. Brannagan
S. Mills
S. Mills
J. Donley
J. Donley
M. Peart-Harris
M. Peart-Harris
W. Lankshear
W. Lankshear
Derby 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
J. Widell Zetterstrom
G
23
J. Ward
D
28
D. Sanderson
↓ 71'
D
5
M. Clarke
D
2
D. Murkin
↓ 90+1' 🟨 88'
D
27
L. Travis
M
18
D. Ozoh
↓ 71' 🟨 26'
M
25
B. Brereton Diaz
M
19
S. Szmodics
🎯 22' ↓ 90+1' 🟨 76'
M
34
J. Banel
⚽ 22' ↓ 86'
M
9
C. Morris
F
Substitutes
31
J. Vickers
G
4
D. Batth
D
37
O. Eames
M
3
C. Forsyth
↑ 90+1'
D
15
L. Salvesen
↑ 90+1'
F
29
O. Fraulo
↑ 71' 🟨 87'
M
6
S. Langas
↑ 71'
D
22
M. Johnston
↑ 86'
D
54
C. Allen
Oxford United 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
J. Cumming
G
2
S. Long
D
6
M. Helik
D
3
C. Brown
D
15
B. Spencer
↓ 89'
D
5
Y. E. Konak
↓ 84'
M
8
C. Brannagan
🟨 80'
M
17
S. Mills
M
33
J. Donley
↓ 62'
M
44
M. Peart-Harris
↓ 62'
M
27
W. Lankshear
F
Substitutes
21
M. Ingram
G
9
M. Harris
↑ 84'
F
4
W. Vaulks
↑ 89'
M
24
H. ter Avest
D
32
Jeon Jin-Woo
↑ 62'
M
11
O. ter Haar Romeny
F
10
A. Emakhu
↑ 62'
F
38
J. McDonnell
M
37
C. Makosso
D
Last matches: Derby
24.07.26
Fri
Derby
SC Freiburg
1
3
L
17.07.26
Fri
Derby
Alfreton Town
2
0
W
02.05.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Utd
1
2
L
25.04.26
Cha
Derby
QPR
3
2
W
21.04.26
Cha
Derby
Norwich
1
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
Derby
Southampton
1
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Derby
Stoke City
2
0
W
03.04.26
Cha
Derby
Coventry
2
3
L
21.03.26
Cha
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
W
16.03.26
Cha
Derby
Portsmouth
1
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Derby
Millwall
0
1
L
07.03.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
2
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Derby
Blackburn
3
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Derby
Hull City
2
4
L
21.02.26
Cha
Derby
Watford
0
2
L
14.02.26
Cha
Derby
Swansea
2
0
W
07.02.26
Cha
Derby
Ipswich
1
2
L
30.01.26
Cha
Derby
Bristol City
5
0
W
23.01.26
Cha
Derby
West Brom
1
1
D
20.01.26
Cha
Derby
Charlton
2
1
W
Last matches: Oxford United
21.07.26
Fri
Oxford United
Aldershot Town
3
1
W
02.05.26
Cha
Oxford United
Millwall
0
2
L
25.04.26
Cha
Oxford United
Sheffield Wednesday
4
1
W
21.04.26
Cha
Oxford United
Wrexham
0
1
L
11.04.26
Cha
Oxford United
Watford
2
0
W
06.04.26
Cha
Oxford United
Portsmouth
2
2
D
03.04.26
Cha
Oxford United
Hull City
1
1
D
21.03.26
Cha
Oxford United
Southampton
0
2
L
14.03.26
Cha
Oxford United
Charlton
1
1
D
11.03.26
Cha
Oxford United
Blackburn
1
0
W
06.03.26
Cha
Oxford United
Preston
3
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
West Brom
2
1
W
25.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Stoke City
1
2
L
21.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Middlesbrough
0
0
D
15.02.26
FA
Oxford United
Sunderland
0
1
L
10.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Norwich
0
3
L
07.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Coventry
0
0
D
03.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Sheffield Utd
1
3
L
31.01.26
Cha
Oxford United
Birmingham
0
2
L
24.01.26
Cha
Oxford United
Leicester
2
1
W
H2H: Derby vs Oxford United
18.04.26
H2H
Derby
Oxford United
1
0
W
18.10.25
H2H
Oxford United
Derby
1
0
L
11.02.25
H2H
Derby
Oxford United
0
0
D
22.10.24
H2H
Oxford United
Derby
1
1
D
29.12.23
H2H
Oxford United
Derby
2
3
W
15.08.23
H2H
Derby
Oxford United
1
2
L
11.03.23
H2H
Oxford United
Derby
2
3
W
30.07.22
H2H
Derby
Oxford United
1
0
W
Last matches: Derby
02.05.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Utd
1
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Derby
Stoke City
2
0
W
21.03.26
Cha
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
W
07.03.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
2
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Derby
Blackburn
3
1
W
14.02.26
Cha
Derby
Swansea
2
0
W
07.02.26
Cha
Derby
Ipswich
1
2
L
23.01.26
Cha
Derby
West Brom
1
1
D
11.01.26
FA
Derby
Leeds
1
3
L
04.01.26
Cha
Derby
Wrexham
1
2
L
01.01.26
Cha
Derby
Middlesbrough
1
0
W
20.12.25
Cha
Derby
Portsmouth
1
1
D
10.12.25
Cha
Derby
Millwall
1
1
D
06.12.25
Cha
Derby
Leicester
1
3
L
22.11.25
Cha
Derby
Watford
2
3
L
04.11.25
Cha
Derby
Hull City
2
1
W
25.10.25
Cha
Derby
QPR
1
0
W
21.10.25
Cha
Derby
Norwich
1
0
W
04.10.25
Cha
Derby
Southampton
1
1
D
30.09.25
Cha
Derby
Charlton
1
1
D
H2H at home: Derby
18.04.26
H2H
Derby
Oxford United
1
0
W
11.02.25
H2H
Derby
Oxford United
0
0
D
15.08.23
H2H
Derby
Oxford United
1
2
L
30.07.22
H2H
Derby
Oxford United
1
0
W
Last matches: Oxford United
21.07.26
Fri
Oxford United
Aldershot Town
3
1
W
02.05.26
Cha
Oxford United
Millwall
0
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Oxford United
Portsmouth
2
2
D
21.03.26
Cha
Oxford United
Southampton
0
2
L
06.03.26
Cha
Oxford United
Preston
3
1
W
25.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Stoke City
1
2
L
21.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Middlesbrough
0
0
D
07.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Coventry
0
0
D
03.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Sheffield Utd
1
3
L
24.01.26
Cha
Oxford United
Leicester
2
1
W
09.01.26
FA
Oxford United
Milton Keynes Dons
1
1
D
01.01.26
Cha
Oxford United
Ipswich
1
2
L
20.12.25
Cha
Oxford United
Charlton
0
1
L
09.12.25
Cha
Oxford United
Blackburn
1
1
D
06.12.25
Cha
Oxford United
Swansea
0
2
L
25.11.25
Cha
Oxford United
Norwich
1
1
D
08.11.25
Cha
Oxford United
West Brom
1
2
L
25.10.25
Cha
Oxford United
Sheffield Wednesday
2
1
W
22.10.25
Cha
Oxford United
Wrexham
0
1
L
04.10.25
Cha
Oxford United
Watford
1
2
L
H2H away: Oxford United
18.04.26
H2H
Derby
Oxford United
1
0
L
11.02.25
H2H
Derby
Oxford United
0
0
D
15.08.23
H2H
Derby
Oxford United
1
2
W
30.07.22
H2H
Derby
Oxford United
1
0
L

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8
Derby Home
46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Derby 3 missing
-
C. Elder
Questionable Toe Injury
OUT
-
J. Widell Zetterstrom
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
B. Clark
Questionable Injury
OUT
Oxford United 3 missing
-
B. De Keersmaecker
Missing Fixture Shoulder Injury
OUT
-
T. Goodrham
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
G. Leigh
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT