Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
All Markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|
Probability Distribution
Derby Win 0%
Draw 0%
Birmingham Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Derby1.04
Birmingham1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Derby
WWDLW
9 GF / 10 GA
Birmingham
WLDWL
11 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.83
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
0.67
5
BTTS Yes
3
4
Over 2.5
4
4
Shots on Goal
2
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Derby
7 matches
Birmingham
6 matches
| Derby | Statistic | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Wins | 4 |
| 1 | Draws | 2 |
| 4 | Losses | 0 |
| 9 | Goals For | 11 |
| 10 | Goals Against | 4 |
| 1.29 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.83 |
| 1.43 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.67 |
| 5 | BTTS Yes | 3 |
| 6 | Over 1.5 | 4 |
| 4 | Over 2.5 | 4 |
| 2 | Over 3.5 | 2 |
| 1 | Clean Sheets | 3 |
| 1 | Failed To Score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots On Goal | 2 |
| 15 | Total Shots | 10 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 55% | Ball Possession | 55% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
H2H Analysis
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Derby won 8 times, Birmingham won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:18 from Derby's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.
Predicted formations: Derby 5-3-2 / Birmingham 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Derby wins 8, draws 4, Birmingham wins 3
Last matches: Derby
15.08.26
Cha
Derby
Charlton
1
2
L
04.08.26
Fri
Derby
Rotherham
1
1
D
01.08.26
Fri
Derby
Burton Albion
0
1
L
31.07.26
Fri
Derby
Mansfield Town
3
1
W
28.07.26
Fri
Derby
Valencia
1
2
L
24.07.26
Fri
Derby
SC Freiburg
1
3
L
17.07.26
Fri
Derby
Alfreton Town
2
0
W
02.05.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Utd
1
2
L
25.04.26
Cha
Derby
QPR
3
2
W
21.04.26
Cha
Derby
Norwich
1
2
L
18.04.26
Cha
Derby
Oxford United
1
0
W
11.04.26
Cha
Derby
Southampton
1
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Derby
Stoke City
2
0
W
03.04.26
Cha
Derby
Coventry
2
3
L
21.03.26
Cha
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
W
16.03.26
Cha
Derby
Portsmouth
1
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Derby
Millwall
0
1
L
07.03.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
2
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Derby
Blackburn
3
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Derby
Hull City
2
4
L
Last matches: Birmingham
15.08.26
Cha
Birmingham
Sheffield Utd
0
0
D
31.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Barcelona
2
2
D
25.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Crewe
2
1
W
22.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Burton Albion
1
0
W
15.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Solihull Moors
3
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Huddersfield
3
1
W
02.05.26
Cha
Birmingham
Portsmouth
1
1
D
25.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Bristol City
2
1
W
22.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Preston
2
1
W
18.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Hull City
1
1
D
12.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Wrexham
2
0
W
06.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Ipswich
1
2
L
03.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Blackburn
0
1
L
21.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
Derby
0
1
L
14.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
Sheffield Utd
1
1
D
11.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
QPR
1
0
W
07.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
Charlton
0
1
L
02.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
Middlesbrough
1
3
L
25.02.26
Cha
Birmingham
Millwall
0
3
L
21.02.26
Cha
Birmingham
Norwich
2
1
W
H2H: Derby vs Birmingham
21.03.26
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
W
26.12.25
H2H
Birmingham
Derby
1
1
D
30.01.22
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
2
2
D
10.09.21
H2H
Birmingham
Derby
2
0
L
24.04.21
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
1
2
L
29.12.20
H2H
Birmingham
Derby
0
4
W
22.07.20
H2H
Birmingham
Derby
1
3
W
28.09.19
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
3
2
W
19.04.19
H2H
Birmingham
Derby
2
2
D
03.11.18
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
3
1
W
13.01.18
H2H
Birmingham
Derby
0
3
W
23.09.17
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
1
1
D
08.04.17
H2H
Birmingham
Derby
1
2
W
27.12.16
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
W
16.01.16
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
0
3
L
Last matches: Derby
28.07.26
Fri
Derby
Valencia
1
2
L
02.05.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Utd
1
2
L
18.04.26
Cha
Derby
Oxford United
1
0
W
06.04.26
Cha
Derby
Stoke City
2
0
W
21.03.26
Cha
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
W
07.03.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
2
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Derby
Blackburn
3
1
W
14.02.26
Cha
Derby
Swansea
2
0
W
07.02.26
Cha
Derby
Ipswich
1
2
L
23.01.26
Cha
Derby
West Brom
1
1
D
11.01.26
FA
Derby
Leeds
1
3
L
04.01.26
Cha
Derby
Wrexham
1
2
L
01.01.26
Cha
Derby
Middlesbrough
1
0
W
20.12.25
Cha
Derby
Portsmouth
1
1
D
10.12.25
Cha
Derby
Millwall
1
1
D
06.12.25
Cha
Derby
Leicester
1
3
L
22.11.25
Cha
Derby
Watford
2
3
L
04.11.25
Cha
Derby
Hull City
2
1
W
25.10.25
Cha
Derby
QPR
1
0
W
21.10.25
Cha
Derby
Norwich
1
0
W
H2H at home: Derby
21.03.26
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
W
30.01.22
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
2
2
D
24.04.21
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
1
2
L
28.09.19
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
3
2
W
03.11.18
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
3
1
W
23.09.17
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
1
1
D
27.12.16
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
W
16.01.16
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
0
3
L
Last matches: Birmingham
15.08.26
Cha
Birmingham
Sheffield Utd
0
0
D
25.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Crewe
2
1
W
22.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Burton Albion
1
0
W
15.07.26
Fri
Birmingham
Solihull Moors
3
0
W
02.05.26
Cha
Birmingham
Portsmouth
1
1
D
18.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Hull City
1
1
D
06.04.26
Cha
Birmingham
Ipswich
1
2
L
21.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
Derby
0
1
L
07.03.26
Cha
Birmingham
Charlton
0
1
L
25.02.26
Cha
Birmingham
Millwall
0
3
L
21.02.26
Cha
Birmingham
Norwich
2
1
W
31.01.26
Cha
Birmingham
Oxford United
2
0
W
20.01.26
Cha
Birmingham
Sheffield Wednesday
2
0
W
17.01.26
Cha
Birmingham
Swansea
1
1
D
10.01.26
FA
Birmingham
Cambridge United
3
2
W
01.01.26
Cha
Birmingham
Watford
0
3
L
20.12.25
Cha
Birmingham
Sheffield Utd
0
3
L
09.12.25
Cha
Birmingham
QPR
1
2
L
06.12.25
Cha
Birmingham
Southampton
1
3
L
26.11.25
Cha
Birmingham
West Brom
1
1
D
H2H away: Birmingham
21.03.26
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
L
30.01.22
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
2
2
D
24.04.21
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
1
2
W
28.09.19
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
3
2
L
03.11.18
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
3
1
L
23.09.17
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
1
1
D
27.12.16
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
L
16.01.16
H2H
Derby
Birmingham
0
3
W
Standings
Championship
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 2 | 3 |
W
|
|
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 3 |
W
|
|
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 3 |
W
|
|
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 3 |
W
|
|
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 3 |
W
|
|
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 3 |
W
|
|
| 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 3 |
W
|
|
| 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 3 |
W
|
|
| 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 0 | 1 |
D
|
|
| 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 0 | 1 |
D
|
|
| 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 0 | 1 |
D
|
|
| 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 0 | 1 |
D
|
|
| 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
D
|
|
| 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
D
|
|
| 15 |
Birmingham
Away
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
D
|
| 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
D
|
|
| 17 |
Derby
Home
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 0 |
L
|
| 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 0 |
L
|
|
| 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 0 |
L
|
|
| 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 0 |
L
|
|
| 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 0 |
L
|
|
| 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 0 |
L
|
|
| 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 0 |
L
|
|
| 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | -4 |
L
|
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One