Derby vs Birmingham Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
All Markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
75.1%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
82.5%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
70.3%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 1-2 |
-
|
- |
Probability Distribution
Derby Win 20.3%
Draw 4.7%
Birmingham Win 75.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Derby1.11
Birmingham1.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
Derby
WWDLW
13 GF / 18 GA
Birmingham
WLDWL
18 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.8
1.64
Average Goals Conceded
1
6
BTTS Yes
7
7
Over 2.5
7
3.2
Shots on Goal
3.4
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Derby
11 matches
Birmingham
10 matches
| Derby | Statistic | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Wins | 5 |
| 2 | Draws | 5 |
| 6 | Losses | 0 |
| 13 | Goals For | 18 |
| 18 | Goals Against | 10 |
| 1.18 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.8 |
| 1.64 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1 |
| 6 | BTTS Yes | 7 |
| 10 | Over 1.5 | 8 |
| 7 | Over 2.5 | 7 |
| 3 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 2 | Clean Sheets | 3 |
| 3 | Failed To Score | 1 |
| 3.2 | Shots On Goal | 3.4 |
| 10 | Total Shots | 11.6 |
| 4.8 | Corners | 6.4 |
| 44% | Ball Possession | 49.6% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
H2H Analysis
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Derby won 8 times, Birmingham won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:18 from Derby's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.
1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Derby 4-2-3-1 / Birmingham 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Derby wins 8, draws 4, Birmingham wins 3
Standings
Championship
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7:1 | 6 | 11 |
D
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 3 | 10 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7:4 | 3 | 10 |
L
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:7 | 2 | 10 |
W
W
W
D
L
|
|
| 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:6 | 2 | 10 |
W
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6:7 | -1 | 10 |
L
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:8 | 2 | 9 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11:7 | 4 | 8 |
W
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13:10 | 3 | 8 |
D
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 10 |
Birmingham
Away
|
5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7:6 | 1 | 7 |
D
D
W
D
D
|
| 11 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6:4 | 2 | 6 |
D
W
L
D
D
|
|
| 12 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8:8 | 0 | 6 |
W
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 13 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8:9 | -1 | 6 |
W
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 6 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 15 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6:7 | -1 | 6 |
L
W
D
D
D
|
|
| 16 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6:7 | -1 | 5 |
L
D
L
W
D
|
|
| 17 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 5 |
L
L
D
D
W
|
|
| 18 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 5 |
D
D
W
L
L
|
|
| 19 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11:6 | 5 | 4 |
D
D
W
W
L
|
|
| 20 |
Derby
Home
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5:10 | -5 | 4 |
L
W
L
D
L
|
| 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4:9 | -5 | 4 |
L
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 22 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 3 |
L
L
D
D
D
|
|
| 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 3 |
W
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6:12 | -6 | 2 |
L
D
L
L
D
|
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One