ARGENTINA LIGA PROFESIONAL ARGENTINA
24.04.2026 20:00
Estadio Guillermo Laza
Referee: Luis Lobo Medina, Argentina
Deportivo Riestra
Match Timeline
Independiente
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
4'
Pedro Ramírez
Deportivo Riestra
13'
M. Bracamonte
Deportivo Riestra
🟨
18'
Mateo Perez
Independiente
🟨
41'
Juan Randazzo
Deportivo Riestra
🟨
49'
Jonathan Goitia
Deportivo Riestra
🟨
63'
Ivan Marcone
Independiente
🔄
66'
M. Perez Curci ↔ L. Millan
Independiente
🔄
66'
S. Montiel ↔ F. Tempone
Independiente
🟨
68'
Jonathan Herrera
Deportivo Riestra
🔄
68'
J. Herrera ↔ G. Obredor
Deportivo Riestra
🔄
68'
M. Bracamonte ↔ N. Watson
Deportivo Riestra
80'
P. Ramirez
Deportivo Riestra
🔄
83'
P. Ramirez ↔ R. Sayavedra
Deportivo Riestra
🔄
83'
M. Smarra ↔ G. Flores
Deportivo Riestra
🟨
85'
Gonzalo Flores
Deportivo Riestra
🟨
85'
Facundo Zabala
Independiente
🔄
87'
F. Zabala ↔ M. Valenzuela
Independiente
🔄
87'
M. Abaldo ↔ F. Valdez
Independiente
🔄
90+2'
A. Alonso ↔ A. Stringa
Deportivo Riestra

Deportivo Riestra vs Independiente Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 65.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 57.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
65.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
57.7%
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Riestra Win 16.2%
Draw 18.2%
Independiente Win 65.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Riestra0.67
Independiente1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Riestra Deportivo Riestra
WWDLW
4 GF / 12 GA
Independiente Independiente
WLDWL
26 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
0.27
Average Goals Scored
1.73
0.8
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
3
BTTS Yes
11
0
Over 2.5
6
3.29
Shots on Goal
4.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Riestra Deportivo Riestra 15 matches
Independiente Independiente 15 matches
Deportivo Riestra Statistic Independiente
1 Wins 6
7 Draws 6
7 Losses 3
4 Goals For 26
12 Goals Against 19
0.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.73
0.8 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
3 BTTS Yes 11
5 Over 1.5 13
0 Over 2.5 6
0 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 4
11 Failed To Score 0
3.29 Shots On Goal 4.14
10.14 Total Shots 13.07
4.21 Corners 6
39.8% Ball Possession 53.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Riestra expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Independiente in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente having the stronger overall control. Independiente carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 9 with 131 points while Deportivo Riestra sit 20 on 107, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Independiente. Deportivo Riestra have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Deportivo Riestra Analysis

Deportivo Riestra approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 107 points from 87 matches. Across the season they have posted - wins, - draws, and - defeats, and the 0:0 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Alonso (2 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Independiente Analysis

From their first 87 matches, Independiente have collected 131 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted - wins, - draws, and - losses, while the 0:0 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on G. Avalos (9 goals), M. Abaldo (4 goals), I. Malcorra (1 goals), with creative support from G. Avalos (5 assists), I. Malcorra (3 assists), S. Arias (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Riestra won 2 times, Independiente won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:4 from Deportivo Riestra's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (83.8%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Riestra 5-3-2 / Independiente 4-3-3
H2H summary: Deportivo Riestra wins 2, draws 1, Independiente wins 2

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
D L W L L
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W D D D W
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D D D D W
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
D D L L W
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
L D W L L
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
L D L W L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
L D W L L
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
W W L L W
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W D W W W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W W D W L
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
W W W L W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L W D W L
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
D L L W W
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D W W L D
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
D D L W L
Knockout Phase