URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.4%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Maldonado Win 58.4%
Draw 11.7%
Juventud Win 29.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Maldonado1.63
Juventud1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado
WWDLW
36 GF / 22 GA
Juventud Juventud
WLDWL
33 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.71
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
13
BTTS Yes
18
11
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 21 matches
Juventud Juventud 27 matches
Deportivo Maldonado Statistic Juventud
12 Wins 8
4 Draws 6
5 Losses 13
36 Goals For 33
22 Goals Against 41
1.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
13 BTTS Yes 18
16 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 15
5 Over 3.5 7
7 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 4.33
0 Total Shots 13.5
0 Corners 4.33
0% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Deportivo Maldonado's more proactive style and Juventud's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Juventud arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Deportivo Maldonado arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 40 points compared to Juventud in 13 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Juventud.

Deportivo Maldonado Analysis

Deportivo Maldonado come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 40 points after 20 matches. They have recorded 12 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a 36:21 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, which underlines an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Juventud Analysis

Juventud sit 13 with 22 points after 21 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 25:33, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Maldonado won 1 times, Juventud won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:7 from Deportivo Maldonado's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.3%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Maldonado 4-3-1-2 / Juventud 4-3-1-2
H2H summary: Deportivo Maldonado wins 1, draws 1, Juventud wins 3
Last matches: Deportivo Maldonado
18.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
0
1
L
10.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Albion FC
1
1
D
06.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Atletico Torque
4
2
W
31.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
3
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
1
1
D
18.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
3
1
W
11.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Boston River
2
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro
1
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Albion FC
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
4
2
W
05.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Liverpool Montevideo
2
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Central Espanol
1
2
L
24.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Atletico Torque
1
0
W
20.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerro Largo
1
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Wanderers
0
0
D
02.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
2
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Penarol
1
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
2
0
W
Last matches: Juventud
17.07.26
Pri
Juventud
Albion FC
1
0
W
11.07.26
Pri
Juventud
Atletico Torque
1
3
L
05.07.26
Pri
Juventud
Danubio
1
1
D
06.06.26
Pri
Juventud
Club Nacional
1
2
L
31.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Wanderers
2
5
L
16.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Progreso
2
0
W
10.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Wanderers
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
20.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Penarol
2
2
D
12.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Progreso
1
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
30.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Boston River
1
2
L
25.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Cerro
0
1
L
22.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Albion FC
0
1
L
16.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Danubio
1
4
L
13.03.26
CON
Juventud
Independiente Medellin
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Club Nacional
3
1
W
06.03.26
CON
Juventud
Independiente Medellin
1
1
D
02.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Deportivo Maldonado
1
2
L
H2H: Deportivo Maldonado vs Juventud
02.03.26
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
2
1
W
28.07.18
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
0
1
L
03.03.18
H2H
Juventud
Deportivo Maldonado
2
0
L
25.02.12
H2H
Juventud
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
01.10.11
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
1
3
L
Last matches: Deportivo Maldonado
10.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Albion FC
1
1
D
31.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
3
0
W
18.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
3
1
W
11.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Boston River
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Albion FC
1
2
L
11.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Club Nacional
4
2
W
24.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Atletico Torque
1
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
02.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
2
1
W
14.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
2
0
W
22.11.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Atenas
0
0
D
08.11.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Colón
1
1
D
26.10.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
La Luz
1
1
D
11.10.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Colón
0
2
L
05.10.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Artigas
6
1
W
21.09.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Uruguay Montevideo
3
0
W
07.09.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Fenix
0
2
L
23.08.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Atenas
0
1
L
15.08.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Tacuarembo
2
0
W
27.07.25
Seg
Deportivo Maldonado
Cerrito
1
0
W
H2H at home: Deportivo Maldonado
02.03.26
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
2
1
W
28.07.18
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
0
1
L
01.10.11
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
1
3
L
Last matches: Juventud
17.07.26
Pri
Juventud
Albion FC
1
0
W
05.07.26
Pri
Juventud
Danubio
1
1
D
06.06.26
Pri
Juventud
Club Nacional
1
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
20.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Penarol
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
25.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Cerro
0
1
L
16.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Danubio
1
4
L
13.03.26
CON
Juventud
Independiente Medellin
1
2
L
02.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Deportivo Maldonado
1
2
L
26.02.26
CON
Juventud
Club Guarani
2
1
W
17.02.26
Pri
Juventud
Atletico Torque
2
2
D
13.02.26
CON
Juventud
Universidad Catolica
4
3
W
01.11.25
Pri
Juventud
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
20.10.25
Pri
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
04.10.25
Pri
Juventud
Boston River
0
0
D
21.09.25
Pri
Juventud
Penarol
0
1
L
05.09.25
Pri
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
22.08.25
Pri
Juventud
Wanderers
1
0
W
10.08.25
Pri
Juventud
Danubio
1
2
L
H2H away: Juventud
02.03.26
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
2
1
L
28.07.18
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
0
1
W
01.10.11
H2H
Deportivo Maldonado
Juventud
1
3
W

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D D D D
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
L D W W D
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
L D W L L
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D W L W
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
L D D W L
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W W L W W
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
L D W L W
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D D D L
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
W L D W D
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W W D W D
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L D D D L
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
W D D W W
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L D D L L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W L D L L
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
W L L W L
16 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
W W L L W