VENEZUELA PRIMERA DIVISIóN
12.09.2026 21:30

Deportivo La Guaira vs UCV Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.5%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo La Guaira Win 59.5%
Draw 18.5%
UCV Win 22%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo La Guaira1.4
UCV1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira
WWDLW
47 GF / 37 GA
UCV UCV
WLDWL
49 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.34
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1.49
21
BTTS Yes
20
13
Over 2.5
20
3.17
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 35 matches
UCV UCV 35 matches
Deportivo La Guaira Statistic UCV
13 Wins 13
14 Draws 8
8 Losses 14
47 Goals For 49
37 Goals Against 52
1.34 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.49
21 BTTS Yes 20
26 Over 1.5 29
13 Over 2.5 20
7 Over 3.5 11
13 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 11
3.17 Shots On Goal 3.5
8.67 Total Shots 10.83
3.5 Corners 1.5
43% Ball Possession 38.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Deportivo La Guaira arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 43 points compared to UCV in 7 on 31, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo La Guaira expected to line up in 4-3-3 and UCV in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward UCV having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward UCV. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Deportivo La Guaira Analysis

Deportivo La Guaira come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 43 points after 21 matches. The return of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 34:15, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of - wins, - draws, and - losses supports the view of an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

UCV Analysis

UCV are currently 7 in the standings with 31 points from 21 matches. The record of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 32:30 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.5%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo La Guaira 4-3-3 / UCV 4-4-2

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 13 5 3 33:18 15 44
W W D W L
2 21 12 7 2 34:15 19 43
W D L W W
3 21 13 4 4 36:21 15 43
W W D L W
4 21 8 9 4 30:20 10 33
D D D D W
5 21 8 8 5 28:19 9 32
D D W D W
6 21 9 5 7 29:27 2 32
L D W D W
7
UCV Away
21 9 4 8 32:30 2 31
D D W L L
8 21 7 9 5 31:21 10 30
W L D D W
9 21 5 10 6 23:26 -3 25
W D D D W
10 21 6 7 8 22:29 -7 25
D L D W L
11 21 6 2 13 24:42 -18 20
L W L L L
12 21 5 3 13 23:34 -11 18
L W L D L
13 21 3 4 14 20:41 -21 13
L L L D L
14 21 2 5 14 16:38 -22 11
L L W D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga FUTVE 2