PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Referee: Micke Palomino, Peru
Deportivo Garcilaso
Match Timeline
UTC Cajamarca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Manuel Ganoza
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
40'
David Camacho
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
55'
K. Sandoval ↔ F. Arancibia
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
57'
M. Lliuya ↔ M. Rasmussen
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
58'
X. Moreno ↔ H. Benincasa
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
58'
M. de Jesus ↔ A. Arroyo
UTC Cajamarca
60'
C. Olivares · Assist: F. Arancibia
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
70'
D. Camacho ↔ J. Nunez
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
71'
D. Dioses ↔ P. Serra
UTC Cajamarca
73'
F. Arancibia · Assist: C. Olivares
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
76'
Erick Canales
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
78'
Arquímedes Figuera
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
79'
Aldair Salazar
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
81'
A. Ascues ↔ J. Sinisterra
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
81'
A. Salazar ↔ J. Portales
Deportivo Garcilaso
VAR
90+1'
Abdiel Arroyo
UTC Cajamarca

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Garcilaso Win 82.7%
Draw 0%
UTC Cajamarca Win 17.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Garcilaso1.22
UTC Cajamarca1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso
WWDLW
15 GF / 17 GA
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca
WLDWL
21 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.31
1.21
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
8
BTTS Yes
10
5
Over 2.5
8
4.14
Shots on Goal
4.64

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 14 matches
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 16 matches
Deportivo Garcilaso Statistic UTC Cajamarca
5 Wins 5
4 Draws 5
5 Losses 6
15 Goals For 21
17 Goals Against 23
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
1.21 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
8 BTTS Yes 10
8 Over 1.5 13
5 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 3
4.14 Shots On Goal 4.64
12.21 Total Shots 12.21
3.86 Corners 4.29
47.8% Ball Possession 50%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring UTC Cajamarca. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Garcilaso expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and UTC Cajamarca in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward UTC Cajamarca having the stronger overall control. UTC Cajamarca arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Deportivo Garcilaso Analysis

Deportivo Garcilaso sit 8 with 19 points after 14 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, while the 15:17 goal ratio supports the view of good form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on B. Da Silva (5 goals), C. Olivares (3 goals), A. Ascues (2 goals), with creative support from B. Da Silva (3 assists), Kevin Sandoval (2 assists), Agustín González (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

UTC Cajamarca Analysis

With 16 points from 14 games and a place of 13, UTC Cajamarca still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats with a 19:22 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Marlon de Jesús (4 goals), D. Camacho (3 goals), A. Arroyo (2 goals), with creative support from M. Rasmussen (3 assists), A. Munoz (2 assists), M. Lliuya (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Garcilaso won 2 times, UTC Cajamarca won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:5 from Deportivo Garcilaso's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.57 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Garcilaso 4-1-4-1 / UTC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Deportivo Garcilaso wins 2, draws 3, UTC Cajamarca wins 2
Stats
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
3
1 Corner Kicks 6
11 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 2
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Goal 3
5 Shots off Goal 4
2 Blocked Shots 3
5 Shots insidebox 3
7 Shots outsidebox 7
3 Goalkeeper Saves 3
273 Total passes 332
214 Passes accurate 267
1.29 expected_goals 0.38
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Deportivo Garcilaso
Formation
UTC Cajamarca
P. Zubczuk
P. Zubczuk
E. Canales
E. Canales
A. Salazar
A. Salazar
A. Gomez
A. Gomez
X. Moreno
X. Moreno
C. Torrejon
C. Torrejon
K. Sandoval
K. Sandoval
A. Ascues
A. Ascues
C. I. Ramos Rodriguez
C. I. Ramos Rodriguez
A. Gonzalez
A. Gonzalez
C. Olivares
🎯
C. Olivares
I. Barrios
I. Barrios
L. Garro
L. Garro
M. Ganoza
M. Ganoza
B. Duarte
B. Duarte
D. Caro
D. Caro
D. Dioses
D. Dioses
A. Figuera
A. Figuera
D. Camacho
D. Camacho
M. Lliuya
M. Lliuya
A. Munoz
A. Munoz
M. de Jesus
M. de Jesus
Deportivo Garcilaso 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
1
P. Zubczuk
G
55
E. Canales
🟨 76'
D
2
A. Salazar
↓ 81' 🟨 79'
D
19
A. Gomez
D
23
X. Moreno
↓ 58'
D
14
C. Torrejon
M
10
K. Sandoval
↓ 55'
M
27
A. Ascues
↓ 81'
M
18
C. I. Ramos Rodriguez
M
8
A. Gonzalez
M
24
C. Olivares
⚽ 60' 🎯 73'
F
Substitutes
31
J. Barbieri
G
11
F. Arancibia
⚽ 73' 🎯 60' ↑ 55'
F
6
I. A. Garrafa Tapia
M
7
J. Sinisterra
↑ 81'
F
22
J. Portales
↑ 81'
D
33
S. Villacorta
D
35
J. Mendoza
M
13
H. Benincasa
↑ 58'
D
17
S. Ramirez
F
UTC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
29
I. Barrios
G
17
L. Garro
D
3
M. Ganoza
🟨 20'
D
2
B. Duarte
D
13
D. Caro
D
8
D. Dioses
↓ 71'
M
16
A. Figuera
🟨 78'
M
22
D. Camacho
↓ 70' 🟨 40'
M
10
M. Lliuya
↓ 57'
M
19
A. Munoz
M
9
M. de Jesus
↓ 58'
F
Substitutes
21
R. Bettocchi
27
P. Serra
↑ 71'
M
35
G. Paredes
D
7
J. Nunez
↑ 70'
15
J. Cantt
M
14
M. Rasmussen
↑ 57'
F
11
A. Arroyo
↑ 58'
F
6
F. Cavagna
D
18
S. Galvez
F
Last matches: Deportivo Garcilaso
30.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Juan Pablo II College
4
1
W
25.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Comerciantes Unidos
0
0
D
11.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Alianza Atletico
2
1
W
04.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
0
W
28.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
FBC Melgar
1
0
W
23.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Universitario
1
4
L
18.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sport Huancayo
1
2
L
04.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sport Boys
3
2
W
22.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Atletico Grau
0
0
D
14.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Alianza Lima
1
1
D
08.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cienciano
2
3
L
23.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
UCV Moquegua
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
1
0
W
09.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
FC Cajamarca
1
1
D
01.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sporting Cristal
1
1
D
Last matches: UTC Cajamarca
31.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2
2
D
23.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Sport Boys
0
0
D
08.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
FC Cajamarca
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
0
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Cienciano
2
2
D
19.04.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Sporting Cristal
2
3
L
15.04.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Sport Huancayo
2
2
D
05.04.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Juan Pablo II College
1
2
L
22.03.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Alianza Atletico
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Universitario
0
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
2
1
W
28.02.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
ADT
2
2
D
13.02.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Cusco
1
0
W
06.02.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
UCV Moquegua
3
2
W
30.01.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Atletico Grau
2
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
UTC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
1
1
D
21.01.26
Fri
UTC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
1
0
W
H2H: Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca
17.05.26
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
26.09.25
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
0
0
D
03.05.25
H2H
UTC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
2
1
L
13.07.24
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
1
0
W
26.01.24
H2H
UTC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
L
03.09.23
H2H
UTC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
0
D
16.04.23
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
2
2
D
Last matches: Deportivo Garcilaso
30.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Juan Pablo II College
4
1
W
11.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Alianza Atletico
2
1
W
28.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
FBC Melgar
1
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sport Boys
3
2
W
14.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Alianza Lima
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cienciano
2
3
L
14.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
1
0
W
01.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sporting Cristal
1
1
D
H2H at home: Deportivo Garcilaso
17.05.26
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
26.09.25
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
0
0
D
13.07.24
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
1
0
W
16.04.23
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
2
2
D
Last matches: UTC Cajamarca
31.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2
2
D
03.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
0
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Sporting Cristal
2
3
L
05.04.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Juan Pablo II College
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Universitario
0
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
2
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
ADT
2
2
D
06.02.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
UCV Moquegua
3
2
W
21.01.26
Fri
UTC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
1
0
W
H2H away: UTC Cajamarca
17.05.26
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
L
26.09.25
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
0
0
D
13.07.24
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
1
0
L
16.04.23
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
2
2
D

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
D W W D W
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
D L W D L
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
W D L W W
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
W D L D W
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
W D W D W
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
W W L D D
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
W D W W W
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
L D W L W
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
L D L D L
10 17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
L L W D W
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
W D W D L
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
L W L D D
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
D D L L L
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
L D L D L
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
D D W W W
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
W L W L L
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
L D L W L
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
L D L L L