11.05.2026 18:00
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Referee: Julio Cesar Quiroz, Peru
Deportivo Garcilaso
Match Timeline
Alianza Atletico
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Agustín González
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
24'
A. Gordillo ↔ E. Perleche
Alianza Atletico
🟨
33'
Erick Canales
Deportivo Garcilaso
38'
C. Olivares
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
47'
S. Fernandez ↔ G. Diaz
Alianza Atletico
🔄
47'
F. Flores ↔ A. Munoz
Alianza Atletico
🔄
62'
E. Canales ↔ S. Villacorta
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
62'
A. Gonzalez ↔ A. Ascues
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
62'
C. Penilla ↔ J. del Castillo
Alianza Atletico
66'
A. Munoz · Assist: H. Lupu
Alianza Atletico
🟨
80'
José Villegas
Alianza Atletico
82'
A. Ascues
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
83'
K. Sandoval ↔ F. Arancibia
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
84'
H. Lupu ↔ V. Robaldo
Alianza Atletico
🟨
85'
Beto Da Silva
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
90+2'
C. Olivares ↔ A. Graneros
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
90+1'
B. Da Silva ↔ J. Sinisterra
Deportivo Garcilaso

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
67.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Garcilaso Win 60.8%
Draw 0%
Alianza Atletico Win 39.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Garcilaso1.03
Alianza Atletico1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso
WWDLW
13 GF / 16 GA
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico
WLDWL
15 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.07
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
7
BTTS Yes
6
4
Over 2.5
6
3.92
Shots on Goal
4.54

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 13 matches
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 14 matches
Deportivo Garcilaso Statistic Alianza Atletico
4 Wins 4
4 Draws 5
5 Losses 5
13 Goals For 15
16 Goals Against 15
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.07
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
7 BTTS Yes 6
7 Over 1.5 8
4 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 6
3.92 Shots On Goal 4.54
12.08 Total Shots 12.38
3.62 Corners 3.15
47.2% Ball Possession 46.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Alianza Atletico's more proactive style and Deportivo Garcilaso's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Alianza Atletico. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Garcilaso expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Alianza Atletico in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alianza Atletico having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Deportivo Garcilaso Analysis

So far, Deportivo Garcilaso have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 16 points from 13 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, while the 13:16 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on B. Da Silva (5 goals), A. Salazar (2 goals), C. Olivares (2 goals), with creative support from B. Da Silva (3 assists), Kevin Sandoval (2 assists), Agustín González (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Alianza Atletico Analysis

Alianza Atletico are currently 8 in the standings with 17 points from 13 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, while the 15:12 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Franco Coronel (3 goals), V. Robaldo (3 goals), C. Penilla (2 goals), with creative support from Franco Coronel (2 assists), C. Penilla (2 assists), F. Flores (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Garcilaso won 2 times, Alianza Atletico won 6 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:16 from Deportivo Garcilaso's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.88 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Garcilaso 4-1-4-1 / Alianza Atletico 4-3-3
H2H summary: Deportivo Garcilaso wins 2, draws 0, Alianza Atletico wins 6

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2