ECUADOR LIGA PRO
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Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.7%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
77.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Cuenca Win 56.7%
Draw 15.8%
Universidad Catolica Win 27.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Cuenca1.17
Universidad Catolica1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca
WWDLW
22 GF / 21 GA
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica
WLDWL
33 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.16
Average Goals Scored
1.57
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
10
BTTS Yes
11
7
Over 2.5
10
3.94
Shots on Goal
4.1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 19 matches
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica 21 matches
Deportivo Cuenca Statistic Universidad Catolica
10 Wins 8
3 Draws 5
6 Losses 8
22 Goals For 33
21 Goals Against 25
1.16 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
10 BTTS Yes 11
12 Over 1.5 15
7 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 7
3 Failed To Score 4
3.94 Shots On Goal 4.1
12.63 Total Shots 11.9
4.19 Corners 4.25
50% Ball Possession 53.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Universidad Catolica's more proactive style and Deportivo Cuenca's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Universidad Catolica. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Universidad Catolica arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Cuenca expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Universidad Catolica in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universidad Catolica having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Deportivo Cuenca Analysis

Deportivo Cuenca approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 27 points after 17 outings. With 8 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 18:19, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Jorge Ordóñez (5 goals), Matías Klimowicz (3 goals), David González (2 goals), with creative support from David González (2 assists), Germán Rivero (2 assists), Carlos Arboleda (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Universidad Catolica Analysis

Universidad Catolica sit 6 with 26 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats with a 28:18 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on B. Palacios (4 goals), Daniel Clavijo (4 goals), E. Mejía (3 goals), with creative support from M. Díaz (5 assists), E. Mejía (2 assists), B. Palacios (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Cuenca won 3 times, Universidad Catolica won 11 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:25 from Deportivo Cuenca's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.2%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Cuenca 3-4-3 / Universidad Catolica 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Deportivo Cuenca wins 3, draws 1, Universidad Catolica wins 11
Last matches: Deportivo Cuenca
05.07.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Barcelona SC
0
2
L
31.05.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Delfin SC
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
16.05.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Libertad
1
0
W
09.05.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
02.05.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
25.04.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Mushuc Runa SC
1
4
L
22.04.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Orense SC
1
3
L
19.04.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Manta FC
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
05.04.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Emelec
2
0
W
21.03.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Macara
1
1
D
17.03.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Leones del Norte
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Aucas
1
0
W
01.03.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Barcelona SC
2
1
W
22.02.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Delfin SC
0
1
L
14.02.26
Fri
Deportivo Cuenca
Macara
2
1
W
08.02.26
Fri
Deportivo Cuenca
Guayaquil City FC
2
1
W
Last matches: Universidad Catolica
10.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Leones del Norte
0
1
L
06.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Mushuc Runa SC
2
3
L
31.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
0
1
L
23.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Orense SC
2
1
W
16.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Delfin SC
2
2
D
09.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
1
2
L
01.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
27.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Manta FC
0
1
L
24.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Macara
4
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
2
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
2
0
W
09.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Guayaquil City FC
4
1
W
22.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
17.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Leones del Norte
3
0
W
01.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
13.02.26
CON
Universidad Catolica
Juventud
3
4
L
06.02.26
CON
Universidad Catolica
Juventud
1
0
W
H2H: Deportivo Cuenca vs Universidad Catolica
17.03.26
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
L
28.09.25
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
2
1
L
01.06.25
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
3
1
W
18.08.24
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
17.03.24
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
3
3
D
07.10.23
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
2
3
L
06.05.23
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
L
07.08.22
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
0
2
W
22.03.22
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
02.10.21
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
3
2
L
18.04.21
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
0
1
L
24.10.20
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
W
03.03.20
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
24.09.19
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
2
0
L
27.04.19
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
Last matches: Deportivo Cuenca
31.05.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Delfin SC
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
02.05.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
22.04.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Orense SC
1
3
L
12.04.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
21.03.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Macara
1
1
D
14.03.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Leones del Norte
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
Deportivo Cuenca
Barcelona SC
2
1
W
08.02.26
Fri
Deportivo Cuenca
Guayaquil City FC
2
1
W
H2H at home: Deportivo Cuenca
01.06.25
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
3
1
W
18.08.24
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
07.10.23
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
2
3
L
22.03.22
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
18.04.21
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
0
1
L
03.03.20
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
27.04.19
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
Last matches: Universidad Catolica
10.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Leones del Norte
0
1
L
31.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
0
1
L
23.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Orense SC
2
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
1
2
L
27.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Manta FC
0
1
L
12.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
2
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
15.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
06.02.26
CON
Universidad Catolica
Juventud
1
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
Universidad Catolica
Sporting Cristal
1
3
L
H2H away: Universidad Catolica
01.06.25
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
3
1
L
18.08.24
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
1
2
W
07.10.23
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
2
3
W
22.03.22
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
0
2
W
18.04.21
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
0
1
W
03.03.20
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
1
2
W
27.04.19
H2H
Deportivo Cuenca
Universidad Catolica
1
2
W

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 13 1 3 36:18 18 40
W W L W W
2 17 8 5 4 20:13 7 29
W L W W L
3 17 8 5 4 20:16 4 29
W D W L W
4 17 8 3 6 19:14 5 27
L W D W W
5 17 8 3 6 18:19 -1 27
L W D W W
6 18 7 5 6 28:18 10 26
L L L W D
7 17 7 2 8 19:17 2 23
W W W L W
8 18 6 5 7 19:19 0 23
W W D L W
9 17 6 5 6 16:18 -2 23
W D L L W
10 17 6 4 7 22:24 -2 22
L L L W W
11 17 5 6 6 22:23 -1 21
W D D L L
12 17 6 5 6 14:17 -3 20
D W W D D
13 17 5 4 8 14:20 -6 19
L L D L L
14 17 4 5 8 9:16 -7 17
D L L D L
15 17 4 5 8 17:25 -8 17
L L W L D
16 17 3 3 11 7:23 -16 12
L W L D L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs