ECUADOR LIGA PRO
28.07.2026 00:00
Alejandro Serrano Aguilar
Referee: Robert Cabrera, Ecuador
Deportivo Cuenca
Match Timeline
Emelec
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
32'
Víctor Griffith
Emelec
35'
M. Diaz · Assist: L. Mancinelli
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
45+1'
Orlando Herrera
Emelec
🔄
46'
L. Klimowicz ↔ J. Ayovi
Emelec
🔄
46'
G. Napoli ↔ L. Fragozo
Emelec
🔄
46'
F. Pizzini ↔ J. Cevallos
Emelec
46'
I. Guerrico
Emelec
62'
M. Diaz · Assist: J. Ordonez
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
66'
Mateo Piedra
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
70'
Jaime Ayoví
Emelec
🔄
74'
P. Ortiz ↔ M. Valero
Emelec
🔄
83'
J. Ruiz ↔ A. Viteri
Emelec
🔄
85'
J. Ordonez ↔ G. Rivero
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
85'
L. Mancinelli ↔ B. Garcia
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
90+1'
Facundo Ferrero
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
90+5'
Mario Valero
Emelec
🟨
90'
Luis Fernando León
Emelec
🔄
90+6'
M. Maccari ↔ J. Chacon
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
90+2'
M. Diaz ↔ A. Lopez
Deportivo Cuenca

Deportivo Cuenca vs Emelec Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 72.6%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
72.6%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.4%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
82.2%
-
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
-
Correct Score 1-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Cuenca Win 48.8%
Draw 23.8%
Emelec Win 27.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Cuenca1.06
Emelec1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca
WWDLW
23 GF / 28 GA
Emelec Emelec
WLDWL
18 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.86
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
11
BTTS Yes
8
8
Over 2.5
3
3.81
Shots on Goal
2.95

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 23 matches
Emelec Emelec 21 matches
Deportivo Cuenca Statistic Emelec
10 Wins 7
4 Draws 7
9 Losses 7
23 Goals For 18
28 Goals Against 24
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.86
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
11 BTTS Yes 8
15 Over 1.5 15
8 Over 2.5 3
3 Over 3.5 2
6 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 7
3.81 Shots On Goal 2.95
12.43 Total Shots 10
4.19 Corners 4.48
50.6% Ball Possession 43.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Cuenca expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Emelec in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Emelec having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Emelec. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Deportivo Cuenca have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Deportivo Cuenca Analysis

Deportivo Cuenca approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 7 with 28 points from 20 matches. The overall return of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats with a 19:23 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Jorge Ordóñez (5 goals), Matías Klimowicz (3 goals), David González (2 goals), with creative support from David González (2 assists), Germán Rivero (2 assists), Carlos Arboleda (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Emelec Analysis

So far, Emelec have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 24 points from 20 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 17:23 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Luca Klimowicz (4 goals), Romario Caicedo (2 goals), Ignacio Guerrico (1 goals), with creative support from Angelo Mina (2 assists), Francisco Pizzini (2 assists), Luca Klimowicz (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Cuenca won 5 times, Emelec won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:25 from Deportivo Cuenca's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.2%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Cuenca 4-2-3-1 / Emelec 4-4-2
H2H summary: Deportivo Cuenca wins 5, draws 2, Emelec wins 8

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 23 2 4 70:31 39 71
W L D W W
2 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
3 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
4 29 13 9 7 49:26 23 48
W D D W D
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 29 11 10 8 31:24 7 43
D W L W D
7 29 11 8 10 31:31 0 41
W D L W D
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L W D W L
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 29 9 6 14 35:45 -10 33
W L L L W
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 29 7 6 16 18:30 -12 27
L W L L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs