BELGIUM JUPILER PRO LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Dender Football Complex
Referee: J. Boterberg
Dender
Match Timeline
Cercle Brugge
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
G. Kondo · Assist: Nazinho
Cercle Brugge
🟨
40'
Alireza Jahanbakhsh
Dender
🟨
41'
Junior Marsoni Sambu Mansoni​
Dender
45'
N. Mbamba · Assist: A. Jahanbakhsh
Dender
46'
I. Diaby
Cercle Brugge
54'
S. Ngoura · Assist: Nazinho
Cercle Brugge
🔄
60'
D. Hrncar ↔ L. De Fougerolles
Dender
🔄
60'
B. De Kerf ↔ R. Oratmangoen
Dender
61'
E. Diop · Assist: G. Kondo
Cercle Brugge
🔄
66'
G. Gallon ↔ G. Dietsch
Dender
🔄
66'
P. Gerkens ↔ H. Jurado
Cercle Brugge
🔄
66'
D. Vanzeir ↔ O. Adewumi
Cercle Brugge
🔄
66'
S. Ngoura ↔ O. Diakite
Cercle Brugge
🟨
67'
Malcolm Viltard
Dender
🔄
72'
B. Goncalves ↔ N. Moutha-Sebtaoui
Dender
🔄
72'
D. Toshevski ↔ B. Nsimba
Dender
🔄
74'
I. Diakite ↔ R. Caicedo
Cercle Brugge
🔄
80'
H. van der Bruggen ↔ N. De Wilde
Cercle Brugge
🟨
90+3'
Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui
Dender

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 82.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
82.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.4%
-
Probability Distribution
Dender Win 3.8%
Draw 14.1%
Cercle Brugge Win 82.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dender1.1
Cercle Brugge1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dender Dender
WWDLW
26 GF / 53 GA
Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge
WLDWL
44 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
0.81
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.66
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
18
BTTS Yes
20
16
Over 2.5
17
3.88
Shots on Goal
4.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dender Dender 32 matches
Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 32 matches
Dender Statistic Cercle Brugge
4 Wins 8
10 Draws 11
18 Losses 13
26 Goals For 44
53 Goals Against 49
0.81 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.66 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
18 BTTS Yes 20
22 Over 1.5 28
16 Over 2.5 17
9 Over 3.5 10
6 Clean Sheets 8
12 Failed To Score 7
3.88 Shots On Goal 4.63
10.91 Total Shots 14.31
3.66 Corners 4.97
47.5% Ball Possession 47.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Cercle Brugge. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Dender expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cercle Brugge in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cercle Brugge having the stronger overall control. Dender have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Dender Analysis

Dender approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 19 points from 30 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 10 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 24:51, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Bruny Nsimba (8 goals), Aurélien Scheidler (7 goals), R. Kvet (5 goals), with creative support from Bruny Nsimba (4 assists), M. Sambu (4 assists), F. Ferraro (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cercle Brugge Analysis

Cercle Brugge sit 14 with 31 points after 30 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 10 draws, and 13 defeats with a 39:47 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on E. Diop (6 goals), P. Gerkens (6 goals), S. Ngoura (6 goals), with creative support from Gary Magnee (7 assists), Flávio Nazinho (5 assists), S. Ngoura (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Dender won 0 times, Cercle Brugge won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:12 from Dender's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.75 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (96.2%)
Predicted formations: Dender 4-2-3-1 / Cercle Brugge 3-5-2
H2H summary: Dender wins 0, draws 4, Cercle Brugge wins 4
Stats
Dender Dender
Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
12
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
2
4 Corner Kicks 6
12 Fouls 10
3 Offsides 4
59% Ball Possession 41%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Goal 12
4 Shots off Goal 4
2 Blocked Shots 2
8 Shots insidebox 13
0 Shots outsidebox 5
8 Goalkeeper Saves 1
464 Total passes 327
350 Passes accurate 241
0.84 expected_goals 3.04
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Dender
Formation
Cercle Brugge
G. Gallon
G. Gallon
M. Sambu
M. Sambu
B. De Kerf
B. De Kerf
L. Marijnissen
L. Marijnissen
B. Goncalves
B. Goncalves
N. Rodes
N. Rodes
M. Viltard
M. Viltard
A. Jahanbakhsh
🎯
A. Jahanbakhsh
N. Mbamba
N. Mbamba
D. Hrncar
D. Hrncar
D. Toshevski
D. Toshevski
Warleson
Warleson
I. Diaby
I. Diaby
G. Kondo
🎯
G. Kondo
K. Valy
K. Valy
I. Diakite
I. Diakite
P. Gerkens
P. Gerkens
H. van der Bruggen
H. van der Bruggen
E. Diop
E. Diop
Nazinho
🎯
Nazinho
D. Vanzeir
D. Vanzeir
S. Ngoura
S. Ngoura
Dender 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
93
G. Gallon
↓ 66'
G
70
M. Sambu
🟨 41'
D
6
B. De Kerf
↓ 60'
5
L. Marijnissen
D
7
B. Goncalves
↓ 72'
D
18
N. Rodes
M
24
M. Viltard
🟨 67'
M
27
A. Jahanbakhsh
🎯 45' 🟨 40'
M
17
N. Mbamba
⚽ 45'
M
20
D. Hrncar
↓ 60'
M
9
D. Toshevski
↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
30
G. Dietsch
↑ 66'
G
44
L. De Fougerolles
↑ 60'
D
67
N. Moutha-Sebtaoui
↑ 72' 🟨 90+3'
D
11
R. Oratmangoen
↑ 60'
F
77
B. Nsimba
↑ 72'
F
90
M. Berte
F
15
K. Koton
M
23
D. Acquah
M
60
O. Balde
Cercle Brugge 3-5-2
Starting XI
1
Warleson
G
19
I. Diaby
⚽ 46'
D
24
G. Kondo
⚽ 2' 🎯 61'
D
12
K. Valy
D
2
I. Diakite
↓ 74'
M
18
P. Gerkens
↓ 66'
M
28
H. van der Bruggen
↓ 80'
M
37
E. Diop
⚽ 61'
M
20
Nazinho
🎯 2' 🎯 54'
M
13
D. Vanzeir
↓ 66'
F
9
S. Ngoura
⚽ 54' ↓ 66'
F
Substitutes
21
M. Delanghe
G
27
N. De Wilde
↑ 80'
D
23
H. Jurado
↑ 66'
M
17
O. Adewumi
↑ 66'
F
75
S. Gheerardyns
D
41
K. Kouassi
F
33
R. Caicedo
↑ 74'
D
6
L. Agyekum
M
10
O. Diakite
↑ 66'
F
Last matches: Dender
23.05.26
Jup
Dender
Lommel United
0
0
D
17.05.26
Jup
Dender
Lommel United
2
3
L
09.05.26
Jup
Dender
Zulte Waregem
1
2
L
03.05.26
Jup
Dender
RAAL La Louvière
2
1
W
24.04.26
Jup
Dender
Cercle Brugge
1
2
L
12.04.26
Jup
Dender
Zulte Waregem
1
2
L
06.04.26
Jup
Dender
RAAL La Louvière
1
0
W
22.03.26
Jup
Dender
Gent
1
3
L
14.03.26
Jup
Dender
Union St. Gilloise
0
2
L
07.03.26
Jup
Dender
Charleroi
2
2
D
01.03.26
Jup
Dender
Cercle Brugge
0
0
D
21.02.26
Jup
Dender
St. Truiden
1
4
L
14.02.26
Jup
Dender
OH Leuven
2
3
L
07.02.26
Jup
Dender
Zulte Waregem
0
1
L
01.02.26
Jup
Dender
Genk
1
2
L
25.01.26
Jup
Dender
Anderlecht
0
0
D
18.01.26
Jup
Dender
Antwerp
1
0
W
27.12.25
Jup
Dender
KV Mechelen
1
1
D
20.12.25
Jup
Dender
Standard Liege
0
1
L
14.12.25
Jup
Dender
Club Brugge KV
1
5
L
Last matches: Cercle Brugge
09.05.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
RAAL La Louvière
1
4
L
01.05.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Zulte Waregem
2
3
L
24.04.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Dender
2
1
W
11.04.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
RAAL La Louvière
3
0
W
04.04.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Zulte Waregem
2
2
D
22.03.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Anderlecht
3
2
W
15.03.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
RAAL La Louvière
1
3
L
08.03.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
St. Truiden
1
2
L
01.03.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Dender
0
0
D
20.02.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Gent
1
0
W
15.02.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Club Brugge KV
1
2
L
07.02.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Charleroi
4
3
W
31.01.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Antwerp
0
4
L
25.01.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Genk
1
1
D
17.01.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
KVC Westerlo
2
0
W
26.12.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Union St. Gilloise
1
1
D
21.12.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
OH Leuven
2
0
W
13.12.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
KV Mechelen
2
3
L
06.12.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Standard Liege
1
2
L
29.11.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Zulte Waregem
1
1
D
H2H: Dender vs Cercle Brugge
24.04.26
H2H
Cercle Brugge
Dender
2
1
L
19.04.26
H2H
Dender
Cercle Brugge
1
4
L
01.03.26
H2H
Cercle Brugge
Dender
0
0
D
26.07.25
H2H
Dender
Cercle Brugge
0
0
D
18.01.25
H2H
Dender
Cercle Brugge
0
1
L
19.10.24
H2H
Cercle Brugge
Dender
0
0
D
14.07.23
H2H
Cercle Brugge
Dender
0
0
D
16.07.22
H2H
Dender
Cercle Brugge
0
5
L
Last matches: Dender
23.05.26
Jup
Dender
Lommel United
0
0
D
03.05.26
Jup
Dender
RAAL La Louvière
2
1
W
12.04.26
Jup
Dender
Zulte Waregem
1
2
L
22.03.26
Jup
Dender
Gent
1
3
L
07.03.26
Jup
Dender
Charleroi
2
2
D
21.02.26
Jup
Dender
St. Truiden
1
4
L
01.02.26
Jup
Dender
Genk
1
2
L
18.01.26
Jup
Dender
Antwerp
1
0
W
20.12.25
Jup
Dender
Standard Liege
0
1
L
14.12.25
Jup
Dender
Club Brugge KV
1
5
L
29.11.25
Jup
Dender
KVC Westerlo
2
2
D
07.11.25
Jup
Dender
Zulte Waregem
2
2
D
19.10.25
Jup
Dender
KV Mechelen
1
3
L
28.09.25
Jup
Dender
RAAL La Louvière
0
0
D
13.09.25
Jup
Dender
Union St. Gilloise
0
1
L
24.08.25
Jup
Dender
OH Leuven
0
1
L
17.08.25
Jup
Dender
Anderlecht
0
2
L
26.07.25
Jup
Dender
Cercle Brugge
0
0
D
H2H at home: Dender
19.04.26
H2H
Dender
Cercle Brugge
1
4
L
26.07.25
H2H
Dender
Cercle Brugge
0
0
D
18.01.25
H2H
Dender
Cercle Brugge
0
1
L
16.07.22
H2H
Dender
Cercle Brugge
0
5
L
Last matches: Cercle Brugge
09.05.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
RAAL La Louvière
1
4
L
04.04.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Zulte Waregem
2
2
D
22.03.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Anderlecht
3
2
W
08.03.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
St. Truiden
1
2
L
20.02.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Gent
1
0
W
07.02.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Charleroi
4
3
W
25.01.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Genk
1
1
D
17.01.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
KVC Westerlo
2
0
W
21.12.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
OH Leuven
2
0
W
29.11.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Zulte Waregem
1
1
D
22.11.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Union St. Gilloise
0
2
L
02.11.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
RAAL La Louvière
1
2
L
04.10.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Antwerp
1
1
D
21.09.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
KV Mechelen
0
0
D
23.08.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Standard Liege
3
0
W
09.08.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Club Brugge KV
0
2
L
26.07.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Dender
0
0
D
H2H away: Cercle Brugge
19.04.26
H2H
Dender
Cercle Brugge
1
4
W
26.07.25
H2H
Dender
Cercle Brugge
0
0
D
18.01.25
H2H
Dender
Cercle Brugge
0
1
W
16.07.22
H2H
Dender
Cercle Brugge
0
5
W

Standings

Pro League , Relegation Round
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 36 13 9 14 53:53 0 48
W W W W W
2 36 10 11 15 53:58 -5 41
L L W W W
3 36 7 13 16 35:50 -15 34
W L L L L
4 36 5 10 21 31:62 -31 25
D L L W L
Relegation Playoffs