NETHERLANDS EERSTE DIVISIE
18.09.2026 18:00
De Vliert

Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.4%
-
BTTS Yes
88%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Den Bosch Win 67.4%
Draw 13.2%
Helmond Sport Win 19.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Den Bosch1.85
Helmond Sport1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Den Bosch Den Bosch
WWDLW
21 GF / 18 GA
Helmond Sport Helmond Sport
WLDWL
15 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.91
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.64
Average Goals Conceded
1.75
8
BTTS Yes
8
7
Over 2.5
6
5.83
Shots on Goal
3.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Den Bosch Den Bosch 11 matches
Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 12 matches
Den Bosch Statistic Helmond Sport
5 Wins 3
2 Draws 3
4 Losses 6
21 Goals For 15
18 Goals Against 21
1.91 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.64 Avg Goals Conceded 1.75
8 BTTS Yes 8
10 Over 1.5 11
7 Over 2.5 6
6 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 1
2 Failed To Score 3
5.83 Shots On Goal 3.67
17.33 Total Shots 10.83
8.83 Corners 4.5
50% Ball Possession 40.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Den Bosch expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and Helmond Sport in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Helmond Sport having the stronger overall control. Den Bosch have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Helmond Sport.

Den Bosch Analysis

With 4 points from 5 games and a place of 15, Den Bosch still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 10:13 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on S. Karlsson Grach (4 goals), Devon Decorte (2 goals), Kévin Monzialo (1 goals), with creative support from Kévin Monzialo (2 assists), Devon Decorte (1 assists), Sheddy Barglan (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Helmond Sport Analysis

With 5 points from 5 games and a place of 14, Helmond Sport still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats with a 9:9 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Mauro Lenaerts (3 goals), S. Dekkers (1 goals), B. Koglin (1 goals), with creative support from T. Essakkati (2 assists), S. Dekkers (1 assists), H. Ingason (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Den Bosch won 3 times, Helmond Sport won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:14 from Den Bosch's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.57 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.8%)
Predicted formations: Den Bosch 4-3-1-2 / Helmond Sport 4-4-2
H2H summary: Den Bosch wins 3, draws 5, Helmond Sport wins 6

Standings

Eerste Divisie: Period 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 6 0 0 24:9 15 18
W W W W W
2 6 4 1 1 15:4 11 13
W L W W W
3 6 4 1 1 9:9 0 13
L D W W W
4 6 4 0 2 16:10 6 12
W L W W W
5 6 4 0 2 16:14 2 12
L W L W W
6 6 3 2 1 7:5 2 11
W D D W W
7 7 3 2 2 12:12 0 11
L W D D W
8 6 2 4 0 12:8 4 10
W W D D D
9 6 3 1 2 10:8 2 10
L W W L W
10 6 3 0 3 16:10 6 9
W L W L W
11 7 3 0 4 17:15 2 9
L W W L L
12 6 2 2 2 12:10 2 8
W W L D L
13 6 2 1 3 11:14 -3 7
L L D W L
14 6 2 1 3 8:12 -4 7
W D L L L
15 7 2 1 4 12:16 -4 7
L W D W L
16 6 1 1 4 10:15 -5 4
L L L W L
17 6 1 1 4 9:18 -9 4
L L L L D
18 6 1 1 4 7:18 -11 4
W L L L L
19 7 1 1 5 8:17 -9 4
W D L L L
20 6 1 0 5 5:12 -7 3
L L W L L
Promotion - Eredivisie (Promotion)