URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
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Estadio Luis Franzini
Referee: L. Gonzalez

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 70.4%
Odds 3.46
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.28
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
70.4%
3.46
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.28
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Defensor Sporting Win 24.3%
Draw 5.4%
Wanderers Win 70.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Defensor Sporting1.02
Wanderers1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting
WWDLW
19 GF / 22 GA
Wanderers Wanderers
WLDWL
29 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
0.83
Average Goals Scored
1.26
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
12
BTTS Yes
12
6
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 23 matches
Wanderers Wanderers 23 matches
Defensor Sporting Statistic Wanderers
6 Wins 10
9 Draws 5
8 Losses 8
19 Goals For 29
22 Goals Against 30
0.83 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
12 BTTS Yes 12
15 Over 1.5 17
6 Over 2.5 12
0 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 9
8 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Wanderers's more proactive style and Defensor Sporting's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Wanderers. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Wanderers look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Defensor Sporting expected to line up in 4-3-2-1 and Wanderers in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Wanderers having the stronger overall control.

Defensor Sporting Analysis

From their first 22 matches, Defensor Sporting have collected 27 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Their overall return of 6 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 19:20 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Wanderers Analysis

So far, Wanderers have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 35 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, while the 28:25 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Defensor Sporting won 4 times, Wanderers won 1 times, while 10 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:11 from Defensor Sporting's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.6%)
Predicted formations: Defensor Sporting 4-3-2-1 / Wanderers 4-3-3
H2H summary: Defensor Sporting wins 4, draws 10, Wanderers wins 1
Last matches: Defensor Sporting
03.08.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
2
1
W
25.07.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
1
2
L
13.07.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
04.07.26
Fri
Defensor Sporting
Cruzeiro
0
2
L
07.06.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
1
1
D
30.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
24.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
0
2
L
17.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
1
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
2
L
04.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
1
1
D
27.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
0
1
L
31.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Albion FC
1
1
D
26.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Danubio
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
0
0
D
26.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
Last matches: Wanderers
05.08.26
Pri
Wanderers
Penarol
1
5
L
31.07.26
Pri
Wanderers
Atletico Torque
2
0
W
17.07.26
Pri
Wanderers
Club Nacional
2
1
W
11.07.26
Pri
Wanderers
Progreso
2
0
W
05.06.26
Pri
Wanderers
Danubio
0
0
D
31.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
5
2
W
24.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Albion FC
0
0
D
08.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
1
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Penarol
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Progreso
1
2
L
12.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Boston River
1
4
L
28.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro
3
0
W
25.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Albion FC
1
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Danubio
2
1
W
13.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Club Nacional
0
2
L
06.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Central Espanol
1
0
W
H2H: Defensor Sporting vs Wanderers
07.02.26
H2H
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
06.10.25
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
2
1
W
17.06.25
H2H
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
07.04.25
H2H
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
04.11.24
H2H
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
07.07.24
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
1
1
D
28.04.24
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
2
2
D
25.08.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
3
0
W
18.06.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
2
0
W
13.02.23
H2H
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
16.01.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
2
2
D
03.09.22
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
1
0
W
26.02.22
H2H
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
1
0
L
18.01.21
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
1
1
D
16.02.20
H2H
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
Last matches: Defensor Sporting
03.08.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
2
1
W
25.07.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
1
2
L
07.06.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
1
1
D
24.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
0
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
2
L
27.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Albion FC
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
2
1
W
08.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
09.11.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
1
1
D
24.10.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
06.10.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
2
1
W
19.09.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Danubio
2
1
W
05.09.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
0
W
23.08.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Plaza Colonia
1
0
W
11.08.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
CA River Plate
1
0
W
07.12.21
Seg
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
3
0
W
04.12.21
Seg
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
0
1
L
H2H at home: Defensor Sporting
06.10.25
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
2
1
W
07.07.24
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
1
1
D
28.04.24
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
2
2
D
25.08.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
3
0
W
18.06.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
2
0
W
16.01.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
2
2
D
03.09.22
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
1
0
W
18.01.21
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
1
1
D
Last matches: Wanderers
05.08.26
Pri
Wanderers
Penarol
1
5
L
31.07.26
Pri
Wanderers
Atletico Torque
2
0
W
17.07.26
Pri
Wanderers
Club Nacional
2
1
W
31.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
5
2
W
17.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Albion FC
0
0
D
02.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
1
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Progreso
1
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Boston River
1
4
L
25.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Albion FC
1
2
L
13.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Club Nacional
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Central Espanol
1
0
W
13.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
2
1
W
19.10.25
Pri
Wanderers
Penarol
0
3
L
12.10.25
Pri
Wanderers
Atletico Torque
2
2
D
06.10.25
Pri
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
21.09.25
Pri
Wanderers
Progreso
0
2
L
14.09.25
Pri
Wanderers
Miramar
0
3
L
01.09.25
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
16.08.25
Pri
Wanderers
Liverpool Montevideo
1
2
L
03.08.25
Pri
Wanderers
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
H2H away: Wanderers
06.10.25
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
2
1
L
07.07.24
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
1
1
D
28.04.24
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
2
2
D
25.08.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
3
0
L
18.06.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
2
0
L
16.01.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
2
2
D
03.09.22
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
1
0
L
18.01.21
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
1
1
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.46
Draw 3.17
Home 2.23
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.23
Draw 2.09
Home 2.91
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.40
Over 1.75 1.51
Over 2.0 1.69
Over 2.25 2.00
Over 2.5 2.28
Over 2.75 2.69
Over 3.5 4.24
Under 1.5 2.91
Under 1.75 2.55
Under 2.0 2.18
Under 2.25 1.83
Under 2.5 1.63
Under 2.75 1.47
Under 3.5 1.22
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 3.00
Home 2.20
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 2.05
Home 3.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 2.30
Home 2.62
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.5 1.40
Over 2.5 2.25
Over 3.5 4.00
Over 4.5 10.00
Over 5.5 21.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 1.5 2.75
Under 2.5 1.62
Under 3.5 1.22
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.32
Draw 2.98
Home 2.16
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.32
Draw 1.90
Home 2.88
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.76
Draw 2.26
Home 2.52
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 0.75 1.05
Over 1.0 1.07
Over 1.25 1.23
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 1.75 1.48
Over 2.0 1.62
Over 2.25 1.92
Over 2.5 2.19
Over 2.75 2.52
Over 3.0 3.20
Over 3.25 3.52
Over 3.5 3.90
Over 3.75 4.96
Over 4.0 7.10
Over 4.25 7.50
Over 4.5 7.90
Over 5.5 21.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 7.10
Under 0.75 6.50
Under 1.0 5.90
Under 1.25 3.52
Under 1.5 2.70
Under 1.75 2.40
Under 2.0 2.06
Under 2.25 1.78
Under 2.5 1.60
Under 2.75 1.44
Under 3.0 1.26
Under 3.25 1.23
Under 3.5 1.18
Under 3.75 1.11
Under 4.0 1.04
Under 4.25 1.03
Under 4.5 1.02
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.45
Draw 3.20
Home 2.05
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.08
Home 2.70
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.35
Home 2.48
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.37
Over 2.0 1.63
Over 2.25 1.90
Over 2.5 2.16
Over 2.75 2.50
Over 3.0 3.15
Over 3.25 3.50
Over 3.5 3.80
Over 3.75 4.75
Over 4.0 6.50
Over 4.25 6.75
Over 4.5 7.00
Under 1.5 2.75
Under 2.0 2.10
Under 2.25 1.77
Under 2.5 1.58
Under 2.75 1.44
Under 3.0 1.29
Under 3.25 1.24
Under 3.5 1.21
Under 3.75 1.14
Under 4.0 1.07
Under 4.25 1.06
Under 4.5 1.06

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 13 4 5 35:19 16 43
W W D W L
2 22 12 5 5 36:22 14 41
D L D W W
3 22 11 8 3 27:17 10 41
W L D D D
4 23 10 6 7 28:26 2 36
W D L D D
5 22 10 5 7 33:27 6 35
L W W L W
6 22 11 2 9 34:29 5 35
W L D W L
7 22 10 5 7 28:25 3 35
W W W D W
8 23 9 7 7 32:25 7 34
L D L D W
9 23 8 8 7 26:23 3 32
W D W L D
10 23 8 5 10 24:25 -1 29
D L W D D
11 22 6 9 7 19:20 -1 27
W L D D D
12 23 6 6 11 26:34 -8 24
D D W L D
13 22 4 10 8 22:30 -8 22
D L D D D
14 22 6 4 12 19:30 -11 22
L L D D L
15 22 5 4 13 14:34 -20 19
L W W L L
16 23 4 4 15 18:35 -17 16
L L W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)