Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
60.5%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
9.5%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
39.8%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
74.1%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-0 |
-
|
- |
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Defensor Sporting
16 matches
Penarol
21 matches
| Defensor Sporting | Statistic | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Wins | 9 |
| 6 | Draws | 6 |
| 5 | Losses | 6 |
| 14 | Goals For | 29 |
| 13 | Goals Against | 24 |
| 0.88 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.38 |
| 0.81 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.14 |
| 8 | BTTS Yes | 14 |
| 9 | Over 1.5 | 18 |
| 4 | Over 2.5 | 9 |
| 0 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 5 | Clean Sheets | 4 |
| 5 | Failed To Score | 3 |
| 0 | Shots On Goal | 4 |
| 0 | Total Shots | 11.6 |
| 0 | Corners | 3 |
| 0% | Ball Possession | 39% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Defensor Sporting expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Penarol in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Penarol having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Penarol. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.
From their first 15 matches, Defensor Sporting have collected 21 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, while the 13:11 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on B. Montenegro (6 goals), A. Machado (2 goals), F. Castro (2 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.
Placed 4 with 27 points from 15 outings, Penarol continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 23:16 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Arezo (6 goals), L. Angulo (4 goals), Leandro Umpierrez (3 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Defensor Sporting won 2 times, Penarol won 11 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:26 from Defensor Sporting's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.
Lineups
Defensor Sporting
Cruzeiro
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
Albion FC
Defensor Sporting
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
Defensor Sporting
Deportivo Maldonado
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
Atletico Torque
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
Penarol
Cerro
Penarol
Central Espanol
Penarol
Santa Fe
Penarol
Corinthians
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Cerro Largo
Penarol
Platense
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Corinthians
Penarol
Wanderers
Penarol
Juventud
Penarol
Platense
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Santa Fe
Penarol
Progreso
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
Boston River
Penarol
Cerro
Penarol
Albion FC
Penarol
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
Albion FC
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
Defensor Sporting
Atletico Torque
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
Plaza Colonia
Defensor Sporting
CA River Plate
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
Uruguay Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Villa Teresa
Penarol
Cerro
Penarol
Cerro Largo
Penarol
Platense
Penarol
Corinthians
Penarol
Wanderers
Penarol
Santa Fe
Penarol
Progreso
Penarol
Boston River
Penarol
Albion FC
Penarol
Club Nacional
Penarol
Central Espanol
Penarol
Club Nacional
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Atletico Torque
Penarol
Cerro
Penarol
Miramar
Penarol
Cerro Largo
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
Boston River
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | 9 | 31 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | 8 | 29 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | 10 | 28 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 4 |
Penarol
Away
|
15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | 7 | 27 |
W
D
L
D
L
|
| 5 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | 1 | 24 |
W
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 6 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | 6 | 23 |
W
D
W
D
L
|
|
| 7 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | 5 | 22 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 8 |
Defensor Sporting
Home
|
15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | 2 | 21 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
| 9 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | 2 | 20 |
L
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 10 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | -5 | 20 |
W
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 18 |
L
L
W
D
D
|
|
| 12 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | -3 | 17 |
L
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | -6 | 17 |
L
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 14 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 |
W
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 15 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | -11 | 10 |
L
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 16 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | -16 | 10 |
L
L
L
D
D
|