URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Luis Franzini

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 24.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 22.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
24.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
22.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Defensor Sporting Win 67.4%
Draw 12.9%
Boston River Win 19.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Defensor Sporting1.02
Boston River0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting
WWDLW
14 GF / 15 GA
Boston River Boston River
WLDWL
18 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
0.78
Average Goals Scored
1
0.83
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
8
BTTS Yes
8
4
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 18 matches
Boston River Boston River 18 matches
Defensor Sporting Statistic Boston River
5 Wins 6
7 Draws 2
6 Losses 10
14 Goals For 18
15 Goals Against 25
0.78 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.83 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
8 BTTS Yes 8
10 Over 1.5 12
4 Over 2.5 8
0 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 3
7 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Defensor Sporting's more proactive style and Boston River's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Boston River. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Boston River arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Defensor Sporting Analysis

So far, Defensor Sporting have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 21 points from 15 matches. The record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 13:11 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through B. Montenegro (6 goals), A. Machado (2 goals), F. Castro (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Boston River Analysis

Boston River approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 17 points from 15 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 14:20 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on F. Bonfiglio (4 goals), F. Munoa (3 goals), L. Suhr (3 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Defensor Sporting won 6 times, Boston River won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:20 from Defensor Sporting's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.1%)
Predicted formations: Defensor Sporting 4-2-3-1 / Boston River 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Defensor Sporting wins 6, draws 3, Boston River wins 6
Last matches: Defensor Sporting
30.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
24.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
0
2
L
17.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
1
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
2
L
04.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
1
1
D
27.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
0
1
L
31.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Albion FC
1
1
D
26.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Danubio
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
0
0
D
26.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
14.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
1
1
D
09.11.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
1
1
D
02.11.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
1
2
L
Last matches: Boston River
01.06.26
Pri
Boston River
Liverpool Montevideo
0
1
L
23.05.26
Pri
Boston River
Cerro Largo
0
3
L
16.05.26
Pri
Boston River
Cerro
4
1
W
11.05.26
Pri
Boston River
Deportivo Maldonado
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Boston River
Central Espanol
2
1
W
24.04.26
Pri
Boston River
Atletico Torque
1
4
L
20.04.26
Pri
Boston River
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pri
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Boston River
Wanderers
4
1
W
30.03.26
Pri
Boston River
Juventud
2
1
W
25.03.26
Pri
Boston River
Penarol
0
2
L
22.03.26
Pri
Boston River
Progreso
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Boston River
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
10.03.26
Pri
Boston River
Liverpool Montevideo
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Boston River
Cerro
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Boston River
Albion FC
0
0
D
15.02.26
Pri
Boston River
Danubio
0
2
L
08.02.26
Pri
Boston River
Club Nacional
1
2
L
09.11.25
Pri
Boston River
Cerro
0
0
D
31.10.25
Pri
Boston River
Wanderers
2
2
D
H2H: Defensor Sporting vs Boston River
11.04.26
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
0
W
02.08.25
H2H
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
4
0
L
01.02.25
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
0
W
22.11.24
H2H
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
0
1
W
12.10.24
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
1
2
L
06.04.24
H2H
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
2
2
D
20.11.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
0
W
09.07.23
H2H
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
0
1
W
16.04.23
H2H
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
1
0
L
27.01.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
4
L
21.08.22
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
0
1
L
10.07.22
H2H
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
2
3
W
21.03.22
H2H
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
12.03.21
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
1
2
L
13.09.20
H2H
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
Last matches: Defensor Sporting
24.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
0
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
2
L
27.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Albion FC
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
2
1
W
08.03.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Central Espanol
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
09.11.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
1
1
D
24.10.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
06.10.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Wanderers
2
1
W
19.09.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Danubio
2
1
W
05.09.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Juventud
1
0
W
23.08.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
Plaza Colonia
1
0
W
11.08.25
Pri
Defensor Sporting
CA River Plate
1
0
W
H2H at home: Defensor Sporting
11.04.26
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
0
W
01.02.25
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
0
W
12.10.24
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
1
2
L
20.11.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
0
W
27.01.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
4
L
21.08.22
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
0
1
L
12.03.21
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
1
2
L
Last matches: Boston River
23.05.26
Pri
Boston River
Cerro Largo
0
3
L
11.05.26
Pri
Boston River
Deportivo Maldonado
1
2
L
24.04.26
Pri
Boston River
Atletico Torque
1
4
L
11.04.26
Pri
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
0
2
L
30.03.26
Pri
Boston River
Juventud
2
1
W
22.03.26
Pri
Boston River
Progreso
1
0
W
27.02.26
Pri
Boston River
Cerro
1
1
D
15.02.26
Pri
Boston River
Danubio
0
2
L
09.11.25
Pri
Boston River
Cerro
0
0
D
31.10.25
Pri
Boston River
Wanderers
2
2
D
27.10.25
Pri
Boston River
Miramar
4
0
W
11.10.25
Pri
Boston River
Cerro Largo
2
2
D
27.09.25
Pri
Boston River
Liverpool Montevideo
1
2
L
13.09.25
Pri
Boston River
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
23.08.25
Pri
Boston River
Club Nacional
0
0
D
08.08.25
Pri
Boston River
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
H2H away: Boston River
11.04.26
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
0
L
01.02.25
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
0
L
12.10.24
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
1
2
W
20.11.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
0
L
27.01.23
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
2
4
W
21.08.22
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
0
1
W
12.03.21
H2H
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
1
2
W

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D W D W
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
W W L D W
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
W W W W W
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D L D L
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
W L W L D
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W D W D L
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
W L L W L
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D W D W
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
L W D L W
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W L W L L
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L L W D D
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
L W L L D
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L W L W L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W W D D W
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
L L L W L
16 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
L L L D D