Login Register
NETHERLANDS › EERSTE DIVISIE
09.10.2026 18:00
De Vijverberg

De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw
Probability 44%
Odds 4.63
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.36
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.31
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw
44%
4.63 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.36 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.31 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.5%
1.11 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
8.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-2
-
12.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
De Graafschap Win 25.4%
Draw 44%
Jong Utrecht Win 30.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
De Graafschap2.03
Jong Utrecht2.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
De Graafschap De Graafschap
WWDLW
24 GF / 45 GA
Jong Utrecht Jong Utrecht
WLDWL
21 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
1.75
3
Average Goals Conceded
2.67
13
BTTS Yes
11
13
Over 2.5
11
4.22
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

De Graafschap De Graafschap 15 matches
Jong Utrecht Jong Utrecht 12 matches
De Graafschap Statistic Jong Utrecht
4 Wins 2
2 Draws 2
9 Losses 8
24 Goals For 21
45 Goals Against 32
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 1.75
3 Avg Goals Conceded 2.67
13 BTTS Yes 11
14 Over 1.5 11
13 Over 2.5 11
8 Over 3.5 7
1 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 1
4.22 Shots On Goal 4.33
14.67 Total Shots 14.33
4.44 Corners 4.44
53.2% Ball Possession 45.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with De Graafschap expected to line up in 4-3-2-1 and Jong Utrecht in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Jong Utrecht having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Jong Utrecht.

De Graafschap Analysis

De Graafschap approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 8 points from 9 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 11:22 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Kania (3 goals), D. Warmerdam (2 goals), Bjorn van Zijl (2 goals), with creative support from F. de Jong (3 assists), N. Martens (2 assists), T. Mero (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Jong Utrecht Analysis

Jong Utrecht sit 20 with 7 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 15:21, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through E. C. Owen (5 goals), Bjorn Menzo (2 goals), Massien Ghaddari (2 goals), with creative support from Bjorn Menzo (2 assists), D. Laaouina (2 assists), Tijn den Boggende (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, De Graafschap won 8 times, Jong Utrecht won 1 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 31:16 from De Graafschap's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (74.6%)
Predicted formations: De Graafschap 4-3-2-1 / Jong Utrecht 4-3-3
H2H summary: De Graafschap wins 8, draws 6, Jong Utrecht wins 1

Standings

Eerste Divisie: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 1 1 28:12 16 22
D W L W W
2 9 6 1 2 19:7 12 19
W L W W L
3 9 6 0 3 23:14 9 18
W L W W L
4 9 5 1 3 19:18 1 16
D W L L W
5 9 5 1 3 13:19 -6 16
L W L L D
6 9 4 3 2 9:7 2 15
L W D W D
7 9 3 5 1 19:12 7 14
D L W W W
8 9 4 2 3 15:13 2 14
D L W L W
9 9 4 2 3 19:19 0 14
D W W L L
10 9 4 1 4 22:17 5 13
W D L W W
11 9 4 0 5 20:17 3 12
L W L W L
12 9 3 3 3 14:16 -2 12
L D L W D
13 9 3 2 4 15:19 -4 11
D L W W D
14 9 2 3 4 15:16 -1 9
D L L W W
15 9 3 0 6 12:14 -2 9
W L W L L
16 9 2 2 5 13:18 -5 8
D L W L L
17 9 2 2 5 13:22 -9 8
D L L W D
18 9 2 2 5 13:24 -11 8
D W L L L
19 9 2 2 5 11:22 -11 8
D W L W L
20 9 2 1 6 15:21 -6 7
L W W D L
Promotion - Eredivisie
Promotion - Eredivisie (Promotion)