URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
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Referee: M. De Armas

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 79.8%
Odds 1.22
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.50
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
79.8%
1.22
BTTS No
55%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
1.50
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
2.84
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25
Correct Score 1-0
-
5.50
Probability Distribution
Danubio Win 37.7%
Draw 42.1%
Cerro Win 20.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Danubio1.22
Cerro0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Danubio Danubio
WWDLW
22 GF / 30 GA
Cerro Cerro
WLDWL
14 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.64
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
12
BTTS Yes
9
10
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Danubio Danubio 22 matches
Cerro Cerro 22 matches
Danubio Statistic Cerro
4 Wins 5
10 Draws 4
8 Losses 13
22 Goals For 14
30 Goals Against 34
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.64
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
12 BTTS Yes 9
16 Over 1.5 13
10 Over 2.5 8
6 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 4
8 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Cerro. Cerro arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Danubio expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Cerro in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cerro having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Danubio Analysis

So far, Danubio have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 22 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 10 draws, and 8 losses, while the 22:30 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cerro Analysis

With 19 points from 22 games and a place of 15, Cerro still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 14:34 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Danubio won 6 times, Cerro won 1 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:8 from Danubio's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (79.8%)
Predicted formations: Danubio 4-4-2 / Cerro 4-3-3
H2H summary: Danubio wins 6, draws 8, Cerro wins 1
Last matches: Danubio
01.08.26
Pri
Danubio
Albion FC
2
2
D
24.07.26
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
11.07.26
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
05.07.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
1
1
D
05.06.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
0
0
D
30.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
1
2
L
18.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
3
L
09.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Albion FC
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
0
3
L
25.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
2
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
12.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Central Espanol
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
30.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
26.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
1
2
L
16.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
4
1
W
07.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Penarol
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
0
4
L
Last matches: Cerro
03.08.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
26.07.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
0
W
12.07.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
07.06.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
0
1
L
29.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
4
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
4
L
02.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
3
L
19.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
28.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
0
3
L
25.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
1
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
1
3
L
14.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
H2H: Danubio vs Cerro
09.02.26
H2H
Cerro
Danubio
0
1
W
14.09.25
H2H
Danubio
Cerro
5
1
W
23.03.25
H2H
Cerro
Danubio
1
1
D
14.11.24
H2H
Danubio
Cerro
0
0
D
22.06.24
H2H
Cerro
Danubio
0
0
D
11.05.24
H2H
Cerro
Danubio
2
0
L
19.10.23
H2H
Cerro
Danubio
1
1
D
12.03.23
H2H
Danubio
Cerro
1
0
W
27.01.23
H2H
Cerro
Danubio
0
0
D
27.01.23
H2H
Danubio
Cerro
0
0
D
18.11.21
H2H
Danubio
Cerro
0
0
D
05.08.21
H2H
Cerro
Danubio
1
1
D
22.02.21
H2H
Danubio
Cerro
2
1
W
30.08.20
H2H
Cerro
Danubio
1
2
W
22.09.19
H2H
Cerro
Danubio
0
1
W
Last matches: Danubio
11.07.26
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
05.07.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
1
1
D
30.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
1
2
L
09.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Albion FC
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
26.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
16.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
4
1
W
28.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
15.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Boston River
2
0
W
08.11.25
Pri
Danubio
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
26.10.25
Pri
Danubio
CA River Plate
0
1
L
12.10.25
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
0
0
D
28.09.25
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
2
0
W
14.09.25
Pri
Danubio
Cerro
5
1
W
31.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Miramar
2
3
L
10.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
2
1
W
18.11.21
Seg
Danubio
Cerro
0
0
D
27.10.21
Seg
Danubio
Rampla Juniors
2
0
W
13.10.21
Seg
Danubio
Juventud
0
1
L
H2H at home: Danubio
14.09.25
H2H
Danubio
Cerro
5
1
W
14.11.24
H2H
Danubio
Cerro
0
0
D
12.03.23
H2H
Danubio
Cerro
1
0
W
27.01.23
H2H
Danubio
Cerro
0
0
D
18.11.21
H2H
Danubio
Cerro
0
0
D
22.02.21
H2H
Danubio
Cerro
2
1
W
Last matches: Cerro
03.08.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
12.07.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
29.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
4
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
4
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
3
L
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
28.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
1
3
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
16.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Albion FC
0
3
L
18.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
2
1
W
05.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
2
L
26.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
1
0
W
14.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
1
5
L
31.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
0
1
L
17.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
02.08.25
Pri
Cerro
CA River Plate
0
0
D
16.10.22
Seg
Cerro
Rampla Juniors
1
0
W
01.10.22
Seg
Cerro
Miramar
2
0
W
H2H away: Cerro
14.09.25
H2H
Danubio
Cerro
5
1
L
14.11.24
H2H
Danubio
Cerro
0
0
D
12.03.23
H2H
Danubio
Cerro
1
0
L
27.01.23
H2H
Danubio
Cerro
0
0
D
18.11.21
H2H
Danubio
Cerro
0
0
D
22.02.21
H2H
Danubio
Cerro
2
1
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.08
Draw 3.14
Home 2.03
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.00
Home 2.79
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.11
Over 1.5 1.51
Over 1.75 1.66
Over 2.0 1.93
Over 2.25 2.26
Over 2.5 2.60
Over 3.5 5.14
Under 0.5 6.70
Under 1.5 2.56
Under 1.75 2.23
Under 2.0 1.89
Under 2.25 1.64
Under 2.5 1.50
Under 3.5 1.16
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.80
Draw 2.90
Home 1.91
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 1.95
Home 2.75
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.20
Home 2.40
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.10
Over 1.5 1.50
Over 2.5 2.50
Over 3.5 5.00
Over 4.5 11.00
Over 5.5 26.00
Over 6.5 51.00
Under 0.5 7.00
Under 1.5 2.50
Under 2.5 1.50
Under 3.5 1.17
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.90
Draw 2.98
Home 1.97
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.02
Draw 1.86
Home 2.72
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.46
Draw 2.18
Home 2.37
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 0.75 1.08
Over 1.0 1.10
Over 1.25 1.29
Over 1.5 1.48
Over 1.75 1.61
Over 2.0 1.82
Over 2.25 2.16
Over 2.5 2.43
Over 2.75 2.95
Over 3.0 3.94
Over 3.25 4.36
Over 3.5 4.75
Over 3.75 6.10
Over 4.0 9.00
Over 4.5 10.50
Over 5.5 29.00
Over 6.5 50.00
Under 0.5 6.35
Under 0.75 5.70
Under 1.0 5.00
Under 1.25 3.10
Under 1.5 2.46
Under 1.75 2.12
Under 2.0 1.80
Under 2.25 1.61
Under 2.5 1.44
Under 2.75 1.32
Under 3.0 1.17
Under 3.25 1.15
Under 3.5 1.12
Under 3.75 1.06
Under 4.0 1.00
Under 4.5 1.02
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 3.15
Home 1.94
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.60
Draw 2.00
Home 2.65
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.10
Draw 2.28
Home 2.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.0 1.12
Over 1.25 1.29
Over 1.5 1.45
Over 1.75 1.58
Over 2.0 1.79
Over 2.25 2.10
Over 2.5 2.38
Over 2.75 2.85
Over 3.0 3.80
Over 3.25 4.10
Over 3.5 4.50
Over 3.75 5.60
Over 4.0 8.50
Under 0.5 6.10
Under 1.0 5.00
Under 1.25 3.20
Under 1.5 2.50
Under 1.75 2.18
Under 2.0 1.88
Under 2.25 1.63
Under 2.5 1.49
Under 2.75 1.35
Under 3.0 1.21
Under 3.25 1.18
Under 3.5 1.15
Under 3.75 1.10
Under 4.0 1.05

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 13 4 5 35:19 16 43
W W D W L
2 22 12 5 5 36:22 14 41
D L D W W
3 22 11 8 3 27:17 10 41
W L D D D
4 23 10 6 7 28:26 2 36
W D L D D
5 22 10 5 7 33:27 6 35
L W W L W
6 22 11 2 9 34:29 5 35
W L D W L
7 22 10 5 7 28:25 3 35
W W W D W
8 23 9 7 7 32:25 7 34
L D L D W
9 23 8 8 7 26:23 3 32
W D W L D
10 23 8 5 10 24:25 -1 29
D L W D D
11 22 6 9 7 19:20 -1 27
W L D D D
12 23 6 6 11 26:34 -8 24
D D W L D
13 22 4 10 8 22:30 -8 22
D L D D D
14 22 6 4 12 19:30 -11 22
L L D D L
15
Cerro Away
22 5 4 13 14:34 -20 19
L W W L L
16 23 4 4 15 18:35 -17 16
L L W L L
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