BRAZIL SERIE B
14.06.2026 20:00
Arena Pantanal
Referee: D. Serafim
Cuiaba
Match Timeline
Vila Nova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
Rodrigo Rodrigues ↔ Kauan Cristtyan
Cuiaba
🔄
46'
Tiago Pagnussat ↔ Caio Marcelo
Vila Nova
🔄
58'
Luiz Otavio ↔ Luisão
Cuiaba
🔄
58'
Vinicius Peixoto ↔ Mateus Criciuma
Cuiaba
🔄
66'
Dodô ↔ Hayner
Vila Nova
🔄
66'
André Luís ↔ Dellatorre
Vila Nova
🔄
66'
Janderson ↔ Emerson Urso
Vila Nova
🔄
68'
Pepê ↔ Victor Hugo
Cuiaba
🟨
84'
João Vieira
Vila Nova
🔄
84'
Railan ↔ Marcos Júnior
Cuiaba
🔄
84'
Ryan Lima ↔ Bruno Xavier
Vila Nova
90+2'
Calebe Costa
Cuiaba
🟨
90+8'
Marcos Júnior
Cuiaba

Cuiaba vs Vila Nova Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 66.2%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
66.2%
-
BTTS No
60.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cuiaba Win 29.3%
Draw 4.6%
Vila Nova Win 66.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cuiaba0.77
Vila Nova1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cuiaba Cuiaba
WWDLW
8 GF / 6 GA
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WLDWL
18 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
0.67
Average Goals Scored
1.5
0.5
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
3
BTTS Yes
7
1
Over 2.5
5
4.17
Shots on Goal
3.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cuiaba Cuiaba 12 matches
Vila Nova Vila Nova 12 matches
Cuiaba Statistic Vila Nova
3 Wins 7
7 Draws 4
2 Losses 1
8 Goals For 18
6 Goals Against 11
0.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
0.5 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
3 BTTS Yes 7
6 Over 1.5 8
1 Over 2.5 5
0 Over 3.5 2
7 Clean Sheets 4
7 Failed To Score 1
4.17 Shots On Goal 3.75
11.58 Total Shots 13.5
3.33 Corners 5.08
46.5% Ball Possession 54.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Vila Nova carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 22 points while Cuiaba sit 15 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Vila Nova. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cuiaba expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Vila Nova in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vila Nova having the stronger overall control.

Cuiaba Analysis

Cuiaba approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 13 points from 11 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, together with goals at 6:5, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Hernandes (2 goals), Eric (1 goals), Joao Basso (1 goals), with creative support from Hernandes (1 assists), Joao Basso (1 assists), Pepê (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Vila Nova Analysis

Vila Nova come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 22 points after 11 matches. The return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 17:11, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Rafael Silva (3 goals), Ryan (3 goals), Dellatorre (2 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos Gabriel (4 assists), Janderson (3 assists), Ryan (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Cuiaba won 5 times, Vila Nova won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:14 from Cuiaba's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.15 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Cuiaba 3-4-2-1 / Vila Nova 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cuiaba wins 5, draws 4, Vila Nova wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 13 7 5 26:13 13 46
D W W D W
2 25 13 5 7 37:25 12 44
W D W W L
3 25 12 8 5 26:19 7 44
L L D W L
4 25 12 7 6 41:22 19 43
W W W D L
5 25 11 8 6 28:22 6 41
D W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 37:35 2 39
W L W D W
7 25 10 9 6 28:23 5 39
W W D L D
8 25 9 11 5 33:24 9 38
L W L W W
9 25 10 7 8 31:32 -1 37
D D L L L
10 25 10 6 9 25:30 -5 36
W D L L W
11 25 8 12 5 23:19 4 36
W D W W D
12 25 9 7 9 30:28 2 34
W D W D D
13 25 8 10 7 26:27 -1 34
L L L W W
14 25 8 8 9 34:29 5 32
L D D L W
15 25 8 7 10 29:28 1 31
L L D W W
16 25 8 5 12 27:31 -4 29
L W W W L
17 25 7 7 11 25:32 -7 28
L W L L W
18 25 5 7 13 29:36 -7 22
D L D L L
19 25 3 5 17 18:42 -24 14
W L L L L
20 25 2 4 19 16:52 -36 10
L L L D L
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