BULGARIA FIRST LEAGUE
30.08.2026 18:15
Balgarska Armiya Stadium
Referee: Gero Piskov, Bulgaria
CSKA Sofia
Match Timeline
Cherno More Varna
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
Mohamed Amine Brahimi
CSKA Sofia
20'
S. Sensi
CSKA Sofia
🟨
28'
Ventsislav Kerchev
Cherno More Varna
30'
J. Zwarts
CSKA Sofia
39'
C. Sidney
Cherno More Varna
🟨
43'
Luciano Squadrone
Cherno More Varna
🟨
45+3'
David Teles
Cherno More Varna
🟨
48'
Facundo Rodríguez
CSKA Sofia
🟨
49'
Zhivko Atanasov
Cherno More Varna
🟨
52'
Fedor Lapoukhov
CSKA Sofia
🔄
62'
M. Brahimi ↔ Pastor
CSKA Sofia
🔄
62'
I. Solet ↔ J. Eto'o
CSKA Sofia
🔄
67'
G. Lazarov ↔ J. Padilla
Cherno More Varna
🔄
74'
M. Achi ↔ M. Barandas
Cherno More Varna
🔄
74'
A. Donchev ↔ Joao Bandaro
Cherno More Varna
🔄
76'
I. Pittas ↔ L. Godoy
CSKA Sofia
🟨
78'
Petko Panayotov
CSKA Sofia
86'
L. Godoy
CSKA Sofia
🔄
87'
V. Kerchev ↔ P. Andreev
Cherno More Varna
🔄
87'
D. Teles ↔ I. Bounaas
Cherno More Varna
🔄
89'
P. Panayotov ↔ B. Jordao
CSKA Sofia

CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.3%
-
BTTS Yes
71%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
CSKA Sofia Win 65.3%
Draw 4.4%
Cherno More Varna Win 30.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
CSKA Sofia1.49
Cherno More Varna1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia
WWDLW
39 GF / 28 GA
Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna
WLDWL
25 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.77
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
10
BTTS Yes
7
16
Over 2.5
8
1.9
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 22 matches
Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 18 matches
CSKA Sofia Statistic Cherno More Varna
12 Wins 8
4 Draws 4
6 Losses 6
39 Goals For 25
28 Goals Against 19
1.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
10 BTTS Yes 7
18 Over 1.5 10
16 Over 2.5 8
8 Over 3.5 5
8 Clean Sheets 7
8 Failed To Score 5
1.9 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
1.3 Corners 0
16.2% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by CSKA Sofia's more proactive style and Cherno More Varna's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. CSKA Sofia arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 13 points compared to Cherno More Varna in 9 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with CSKA Sofia expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Cherno More Varna in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cherno More Varna having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Cherno More Varna. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. CSKA Sofia come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

CSKA Sofia Analysis

CSKA Sofia approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 13 points after 5 outings. With 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats plus a goal balance of 13:3, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Cherno More Varna Analysis

With 4 points from 6 games and a place of 9, Cherno More Varna still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 7:13 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, CSKA Sofia won 5 times, Cherno More Varna won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:10 from CSKA Sofia's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: CSKA Sofia 4-3-3 / Cherno More Varna 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: CSKA Sofia wins 5, draws 6, Cherno More Varna wins 4

Standings

A PFG
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 8 1 0 21:4 17 25
D W W W W
2 9 7 2 0 16:7 9 23
W W D D W
3 8 6 2 0 21:6 15 20
W D W W W
4 9 6 1 2 17:9 8 19
W L W L W
5 9 5 1 3 14:11 3 16
L L W W W
6 9 4 1 4 13:14 -1 13
W W L L L
7 9 2 5 2 8:6 2 11
D W L D D
8 9 2 4 3 10:14 -4 10
D D D L L
9 9 2 2 5 7:17 -10 8
D W L W L
10 9 2 2 5 8:15 -7 8
L L D W W
11 9 2 0 7 4:12 -8 6
L W L L L
12 9 1 2 6 10:19 -9 5
D L L W L
13 8 0 4 4 10:16 -6 4
D L D L L
14 9 1 1 7 8:17 -9 4
L L D L W
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