BULGARIA FIRST LEAGUE
12.09.2026 18:15
National Stadium Vasil Levski

CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 67.9%
Odds 1.18
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.09
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
67.9%
1.18
BTTS Yes
62.8%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.09
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
1.73
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.73
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
CSKA Sofia Win 48.4%
Draw 19.5%
Arda Kardzhali Win 32.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
CSKA Sofia1.43
Arda Kardzhali1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia
WWDLW
43 GF / 30 GA
Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali
WLDWL
25 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.79
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
0.89
12
BTTS Yes
8
17
Over 2.5
7
1.58
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 24 matches
Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 18 matches
CSKA Sofia Statistic Arda Kardzhali
13 Wins 9
5 Draws 4
6 Losses 5
43 Goals For 25
30 Goals Against 16
1.79 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 0.89
12 BTTS Yes 8
20 Over 1.5 13
17 Over 2.5 7
9 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 3
1.58 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
1.08 Corners 0
13.5% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. CSKA Sofia arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 16 points compared to Arda Kardzhali in 5 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with CSKA Sofia expected to line up in 4-1-3-2 and Arda Kardzhali in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Arda Kardzhali having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Arda Kardzhali.

CSKA Sofia Analysis

CSKA Sofia approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 16 points after 6 outings. They have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, with a 16:4 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Arda Kardzhali Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 16 points from 8 games, Arda Kardzhali bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, with a 13:7 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, CSKA Sofia won 10 times, Arda Kardzhali won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:12 from CSKA Sofia's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.5%)
Predicted formations: CSKA Sofia 4-1-3-2 / Arda Kardzhali 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: CSKA Sofia wins 10, draws 3, Arda Kardzhali wins 2

Standings

A PFG
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 8 0 0 21:4 17 24
W W W W W
2 8 6 2 0 14:6 8 20
W D D W W
3 7 5 2 0 17:5 12 17
D W W W W
4 8 5 1 2 15:8 7 16
L W L W W
5 8 5 1 2 13:7 6 16
L W W W W
6 8 2 4 2 8:6 2 10
W L D D W
7 8 3 1 4 11:14 -3 10
W L L L W
8 8 2 3 3 10:14 -4 9
D D L L L
9 8 2 2 4 7:13 -6 8
L D W W L
10 8 2 1 5 7:17 -10 7
W L W L L
11 8 2 0 6 4:10 -6 6
W L L L L
12 8 1 1 6 8:17 -9 4
L L W L L
13 8 1 1 6 7:15 -8 4
L D L W L
14 7 0 3 4 8:14 -6 3
L D L L D
Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)
Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)
efbet League (Relegation Group)