BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira
Referee: F. Mendes
Coritiba
Match Timeline
Atletico-MG
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
Breno Lopes
Coritiba
🔄
34'
Bruno Melo ↔ Felipe Jonatan
Coritiba
🟨
45+2'
Sebastian Gomez
Coritiba
🔄
58'
Josue ↔ Thiago Santos
Coritiba
🔄
58'
Breno Lopes ↔ J. Lavega
Coritiba
58'
Pedro Rocha
Coritiba
🟨
65'
Lyanco
Atletico-MG
🔄
66'
Natanael ↔ Dudu
Atletico-MG
🔄
66'
Maycon ↔ M. Cisse
Atletico-MG
🔄
72'
Hulk ↔ M. Cassierra
Atletico-MG
🔄
84'
Reinier ↔ Bernard
Atletico-MG
🔄
84'
Cuello ↔ A. Preciado
Atletico-MG
🔄
86'
Pedro Rocha ↔ Renato Marques
Coritiba
🔄
86'
Vini Paulista ↔ Tiago Coser
Coritiba
🟨
88'
Thiago Santos
Coritiba
🟥
90'
Renato Marques
Coritiba
🟥
90'
Renan Lodi
Atletico-MG

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 77.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 57.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
77.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
65.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
57.8%
-
Probability Distribution
Coritiba Win 39.1%
Draw 22.4%
Atletico-MG Win 38.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Coritiba1.18
Atletico-MG1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Coritiba Coritiba
WWDLW
13 GF / 12 GA
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
WLDWL
14 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
5
BTTS Yes
4
3
Over 2.5
5
3.18
Shots on Goal
4.09

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Coritiba Coritiba 11 matches
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 11 matches
Coritiba Statistic Atletico-MG
4 Wins 4
4 Draws 2
3 Losses 5
13 Goals For 14
12 Goals Against 13
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
5 BTTS Yes 4
7 Over 1.5 6
3 Over 2.5 5
2 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 4
3.18 Shots On Goal 4.09
11 Total Shots 13.09
3.36 Corners 5.09
39.6% Ball Possession 48.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Coritiba appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Atletico-MG. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Coritiba expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atletico-MG in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico-MG having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Atletico-MG.

Coritiba Analysis

From their first 11 matches, Coritiba have collected 16 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 13:12 goal balance, points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through Breno Lopes (4 goals), J. Lavega (3 goals), Pedro Rocha (2 goals), with creative support from Josué (4 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), Breno Lopes (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with Pedro Morisco, Rodrigo Rodrigues, Keno, Wallisson unavailable.

Atletico-MG Analysis

From their first 11 matches, Atletico-MG have collected 14 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, while the 14:13 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Victor Hugo (3 goals), Cuello (2 goals), Dudu (2 goals), with creative support from Hulk (3 assists), Victor Hugo (1 assists), Cuello (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with A. Minda, Patrick Silva, Indio unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Coritiba won 4 times, Atletico-MG won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:22 from Coritiba's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.6%)
Predicted formations: Coritiba 4-2-3-1 / Atletico-MG 4-4-2
Missing players: Coritiba 4, Atletico-MG 2
H2H summary: Coritiba wins 4, draws 2, Atletico-MG wins 9
Stats
Coritiba Coritiba
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
0
Shots off Goal
9
Blocked Shots
0
Blocked Shots
7
2 Corner Kicks 8
17 Fouls 10
3 Offsides 1
23% Ball Possession 77%
2 Total Shots 23
2 Shots on Goal 7
0 Shots off Goal 9
0 Blocked Shots 7
2 Shots insidebox 11
0 Shots outsidebox 12
7 Goalkeeper Saves 0
196 Total passes 638
126 Passes accurate 574
1.04 expected_goals 1.15
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Coritiba
Formation
Atletico-MG
Pedro Rangel
Pedro Rangel
Tinga
Tinga
Maicon
Maicon
Jacy
Jacy
Bruno Melo
Bruno Melo
S. Gomez
S. Gomez
Vini Paulista
Vini Paulista
Lucas Ronier
Lucas Ronier
Josue
Josue
Breno Lopes
Breno Lopes
Pedro Rocha
Pedro Rocha
Everson
Everson
Natanael
Natanael
Ruan Tressoldi
Ruan Tressoldi
Lyanco
Lyanco
R. Lodi
R. Lodi
Victor Hugo
Victor Hugo
A. Franco
A. Franco
Maycon
Maycon
Cuello
Cuello
Hulk
Hulk
Reinier
Reinier
Coritiba 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
Pedro Rangel
G
2
Tinga
D
3
Maicon
D
55
Jacy
D
26
Bruno Melo
↓ 34'
D
19
S. Gomez
🟨 45+2'
M
36
Vini Paulista
↓ 86'
M
11
Lucas Ronier
M
10
Josue
↓ 58'
M
77
Breno Lopes
⚽ 7' ↓ 58'
M
32
Pedro Rocha
⚽ 58' ↓ 86'
F
Substitutes
13
Keiller
G
29
Willian Oliveira
M
6
Felipe Jonatan
↑ 34'
D
44
Joao Pedro Chermont
D
14
Enzo Vagner
F
21
Thiago Santos
↑ 58' 🟨 88'
M
88
Fernando Sobral
M
28
Fabinho
F
78
Renato Marques
↑ 86' 🟥 90'
F
23
Tiago Coser
↑ 86'
D
7
J. Lavega
↑ 58'
F
33
D. Alves
F
Atletico-MG 4-4-2
Starting XI
22
Everson
G
2
Natanael
↓ 66'
D
4
Ruan Tressoldi
D
13
Lyanco
🟨 65'
D
16
R. Lodi
🟥 90'
D
30
Victor Hugo
M
21
A. Franco
M
8
Maycon
↓ 66'
M
28
Cuello
↓ 84'
M
7
Hulk
↓ 72'
F
19
Reinier
↓ 84'
F
Substitutes
1
Gabriel Delfim
G
11
Bernard
↑ 84'
M
14
Vitor Hugo
D
6
J. Alonso
D
9
M. Cassierra
↑ 72'
F
23
A. Preciado
↑ 84'
D
5
Alexsander
M
92
Dudu
↑ 66'
F
10
Gustavo Scarpa
M
17
Igor Gomes
M
25
T. Perez
M
39
M. Cisse
↑ 66'
M
Last matches: Coritiba
30.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Flamengo
0
3
L
25.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Bahia
3
2
W
17.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Santos
3
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Internacional
2
2
D
02.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vitoria
1
4
L
26.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Gremio
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Botafogo
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Fluminense
1
1
D
01.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
18.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Mirassol
1
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Remo
1
0
W
12.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Corinthians
2
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
11.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Chapecoense-sc
3
3
D
06.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
28.01.26
Ser
Coritiba
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
Last matches: Atletico-MG
31.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Corinthians
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Mirassol
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
3
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Flamengo
0
4
L
11.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Santos
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
02.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Chapecoense-sc
4
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Fluminense
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Sao Paulo
1
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vitoria
0
2
L
11.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Internacional
1
0
W
26.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Gremio
1
2
L
11.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Remo
3
3
D
04.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
28.01.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Palmeiras
2
2
D
H2H: Coritiba vs Atletico-MG
19.04.26
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
08.10.23
H2H
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
1
2
W
20.05.23
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
14.08.22
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
24.04.22
H2H
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
2
2
D
26.12.20
H2H
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
2
0
L
06.09.20
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
19.11.17
H2H
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
3
0
L
30.07.17
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
0
2
L
06.11.16
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
18.07.16
H2H
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
2
1
L
03.10.15
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
0
3
L
02.07.15
H2H
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
2
0
L
30.11.14
H2H
Atletico-MG
Coritiba
1
2
W
31.08.14
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
0
0
D
Last matches: Coritiba
25.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Bahia
3
2
W
09.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Internacional
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Fluminense
1
1
D
01.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
15.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Remo
1
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
28.01.26
Ser
Coritiba
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
H2H at home: Coritiba
19.04.26
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
20.05.23
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
14.08.22
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
06.09.20
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
30.07.17
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
0
2
L
06.11.16
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
03.10.15
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
0
3
L
31.08.14
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
0
0
D
Last matches: Atletico-MG
31.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Corinthians
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
3
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Santos
0
1
L
02.04.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Chapecoense-sc
4
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Fluminense
0
1
L
14.03.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Vitoria
0
2
L
26.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
Gremio
1
2
L
04.02.26
Ser
Atletico-MG
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
H2H away: Atletico-MG
19.04.26
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
2
0
L
20.05.23
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
1
2
W
14.08.22
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
0
1
W
06.09.20
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
0
1
W
30.07.17
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
0
2
W
06.11.16
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
2
0
L
03.10.15
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
0
3
W
31.08.14
H2H
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
0
0
D

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
?
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
?
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
?
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
?
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
?
6 17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
?
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
?
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
?
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
?
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
?
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
?
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
?
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
?
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
?
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
?
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
?
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
?
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
?
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
?
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
?
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Coritiba 4 missing
-
Pedro Morisco
Missing Fixture Shoulder Injury
OUT
-
Rodrigo Rodrigues
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
Keno
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Wallisson
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
Atletico-MG 2 missing
-
A. Minda
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Patrick Silva
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT