BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Neo Quimica Arena
Referee: A. Daronco
Corinthians
Match Timeline
Sao Paulo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
17'
Raniele · Assist: R. Garro
Corinthians
41'
Luciano · Assist: D. Bobadilla
Sao Paulo
🟨
45+1'
Gabriel Paulista
Corinthians
🟨
45+1'
Matheus Bidu
Corinthians
🟨
45+1'
Sabino
Sao Paulo
🟨
45+1'
Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo
VAR
45+6'
Damián Bobadilla
Sao Paulo
52'
Matheuzinho · Assist: A. Carrillo
Corinthians
57'
Breno Bidon · Assist: R. Garro
Corinthians
🔄
69'
Ferreira ↔ Cauly
Sao Paulo
🔄
69'
Danielzinho ↔ Luan Silva
Sao Paulo
🟨
73'
Enzo Díaz
Sao Paulo
🔄
83'
A. Carrillo ↔ Dieguinho
Corinthians
🔄
83'
E. Diaz ↔ Wendell
Sao Paulo
🔄
88'
R. Garro ↔ Z. Labyad
Corinthians
🔄
88'
Yuri Alberto ↔ Pedro Raul
Corinthians
89'
Matheuzinho
Sao Paulo
🟨
90+5'
Pedro Raul
Corinthians
🟨
90+4'
Zakaria Labyad
Corinthians
🟨
90+4'
Luan Santos
Sao Paulo
🔄
90+2'
D. Bobadilla ↔ Andre Silva
Sao Paulo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 64.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 60.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
64.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
60.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Corinthians Win 52.8%
Draw 4.5%
Sao Paulo Win 42.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Corinthians0.94
Sao Paulo1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Corinthians Corinthians
WWDLW
17 GF / 14 GA
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WLDWL
19 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
1.36
0.78
Average Goals Conceded
0.93
7
BTTS Yes
7
3
Over 2.5
5
3.33
Shots on Goal
3.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Corinthians Corinthians 18 matches
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 14 matches
Corinthians Statistic Sao Paulo
6 Wins 7
7 Draws 3
5 Losses 4
17 Goals For 19
14 Goals Against 13
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
0.78 Avg Goals Conceded 0.93
7 BTTS Yes 7
12 Over 1.5 10
3 Over 2.5 5
1 Over 3.5 2
9 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 3
3.33 Shots On Goal 3.93
10.61 Total Shots 12.07
4.72 Corners 6.79
55.1% Ball Possession 53%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Sao Paulo's more proactive style and Corinthians's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Sao Paulo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 24 points while Corinthians sit 17 on 15, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sao Paulo. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Corinthians Analysis

Corinthians sit 17 with 15 points after 14 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 10:13, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Matheus Bidu (2 goals), Andre (1 goals), Breno Bidon (1 goals), with creative support from R. Garro (4 assists), Matheus Bidu (1 assists), Kaio César (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sao Paulo Analysis

Sao Paulo come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 24 points from 14 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, while the 19:13 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Jonathan Calleri (6 goals), Ferreira (4 goals), Luciano (4 goals), with creative support from Wendell (3 assists), Marcos Antonio (2 assists), Jonathan Calleri (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Corinthians won 4 times, Sao Paulo won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:25 from Corinthians's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 13 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Corinthians 4-2-3-1 / Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Corinthians 7, Sao Paulo 6
H2H summary: Corinthians wins 4, draws 5, Sao Paulo wins 6
Stats
Corinthians Corinthians
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
0
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
3
7 Corner Kicks 7
12 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 3
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Goal 4
5 Shots off Goal 0
4 Blocked Shots 3
11 Shots insidebox 2
4 Shots outsidebox 5
3 Goalkeeper Saves 3
379 Total passes 401
309 Passes accurate 325
1.37 expected_goals 1.05
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Corinthians
Formation
Sao Paulo
Hugo Souza
Hugo Souza
Matheuzinho
⚽ 2
Matheuzinho
Gabriel Paulista
Gabriel Paulista
Gustavo Henrique
Gustavo Henrique
Matheus Bidu
Matheus Bidu
A. Carrillo
🎯
A. Carrillo
Raniele
Raniele
Breno Bidon
Breno Bidon
R. Garro
🎯
R. Garro
J. Lingard
J. Lingard
Yuri Alberto
Yuri Alberto
Rafael
Rafael
C. Soares
C. Soares
Matheus Doria
Matheus Doria
Sabino
Sabino
E. Diaz
E. Diaz
D. Bobadilla
🎯
D. Bobadilla
Danielzinho
Danielzinho
Artur
Artur
Luciano
Luciano
Ferreira
Ferreira
Jonathan Calleri
Jonathan Calleri
Corinthians 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Hugo Souza
G
2
Matheuzinho
⚽ 52' ⚽ 89'
D
3
Gabriel Paulista
🟨 45+1'
D
13
Gustavo Henrique
D
21
Matheus Bidu
🟨 45+1'
D
19
A. Carrillo
🎯 52' ↓ 83'
M
14
Raniele
⚽ 17'
M
7
Breno Bidon
⚽ 57'
M
8
R. Garro
🎯 17' 🎯 57' ↓ 88'
M
77
J. Lingard
M
9
Yuri Alberto
↓ 88'
F
Substitutes
51
Kaue
G
52
Z. Labyad
↑ 88' 🟨 90+4'
F
5
Andre Ramalho
D
26
F. Angileri
D
23
M. Pereira
M
20
P. Milans
D
37
Kaio Cesar
F
56
Gui Negao
F
80
Alex Santana
M
18
Pedro Raul
↑ 88' 🟨 90+5'
F
61
Dieguinho
↑ 83'
M
55
I. Machado
D
Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
23
Rafael
G
21
C. Soares
D
4
Matheus Doria
D
35
Sabino
🟨 45+1'
D
13
E. Diaz
↓ 83' 🟨 73'
D
16
D. Bobadilla
🎯 41' ↓ 90+2'
M
94
Danielzinho
↓ 69'
M
37
Artur
M
10
Luciano
⚽ 41'
M
11
Ferreira
↓ 69'
M
9
Jonathan Calleri
🟨 45+1'
F
Substitutes
31
Carlos Coronel
G
80
Cauly
↑ 69'
M
17
Andre Silva
↑ 90+2'
F
33
Luan Silva
↑ 69' 🟨 90+4'
M
30
Felipe Negrucci
M
40
Igor Felisberto
54
Luis Osorio
D
46
Pedro Ferreira
M
45
Lucca Marques
F
18
Wendell
↑ 83'
D
14
G. Tapia
F
48
Djhordney
M
Last matches: Corinthians
23.07.26
Ser
Corinthians
Remo
3
0
W
12.07.26
Fri
Corinthians
Cascavel
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Gremio
3
1
W
28.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Platense
0
2
L
24.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
22.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Penarol
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Botafogo
1
3
L
07.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Santa Fe
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Mirassol
1
2
L
01.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Penarol
2
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Vitoria
0
0
D
16.04.26
CON
Corinthians
Santa Fe
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Palmeiras
0
0
D
10.04.26
CON
Corinthians
Platense
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Internacional
0
1
L
02.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Fluminense
1
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Corinthians
Flamengo
1
1
D
20.03.26
Ser
Corinthians
Chapecoense-sc
0
0
D
15.03.26
Ser
Corinthians
Santos
1
1
D
Last matches: Sao Paulo
23.07.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
31.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Remo
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Botafogo
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Bahia
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Mirassol
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
0
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
4
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Internacional
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
12.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
0
W
12.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Gremio
2
0
W
04.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Santos
1
1
D
29.01.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
2
1
W
H2H: Corinthians vs Sao Paulo
10.05.26
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
3
2
W
18.01.26
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
20.11.25
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
3
1
W
20.07.25
H2H
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
2
0
L
26.01.25
H2H
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
3
1
L
29.09.24
H2H
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
3
1
L
16.06.24
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
2
2
D
30.01.24
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
1
2
L
30.09.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
2
1
L
16.08.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
2
0
L
26.07.23
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
14.05.23
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
29.01.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
1
2
W
11.09.22
H2H
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
1
1
D
22.05.22
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
Last matches: Corinthians
23.07.26
Ser
Corinthians
Remo
3
0
W
28.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Platense
0
2
L
24.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
01.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Penarol
2
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
16.04.26
CON
Corinthians
Santa Fe
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Palmeiras
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Internacional
0
1
L
22.03.26
Ser
Corinthians
Flamengo
1
1
D
12.03.26
Ser
Corinthians
Coritiba
0
2
L
12.02.26
Ser
Corinthians
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
28.01.26
Ser
Corinthians
Bahia
1
2
L
H2H at home: Corinthians
10.05.26
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
3
2
W
18.01.26
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
20.11.25
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
3
1
W
16.06.24
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
2
2
D
30.01.24
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
1
2
L
26.07.23
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
14.05.23
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
22.05.22
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
Last matches: Sao Paulo
31.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Remo
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
0
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Internacional
1
1
D
18.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
25.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
0
W
04.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Santos
1
1
D
H2H away: Sao Paulo
10.05.26
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
3
2
L
18.01.26
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
20.11.25
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
3
1
L
16.06.24
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
2
2
D
30.01.24
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
1
2
W
26.07.23
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
2
1
L
14.05.23
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
22.05.22
H2H
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
1
1
D

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 5 1 33:14 19 44
W W W D D
2 18 11 4 3 35:16 19 37
W W L D W
3 19 10 3 6 26:19 7 33
W W W D L
4 19 9 5 5 29:24 5 32
D D L W D
5 19 9 3 7 26:20 6 30
D W W W L
6 19 8 6 5 28:24 4 30
D W W L D
7 19 7 6 6 21:19 2 27
W W W L W
8 19 7 6 6 26:29 -3 27
W D W D W
9 19 7 5 7 33:32 1 26
D W L D W
10 19 7 5 7 25:27 -2 26
L L W W D
11 19 7 5 7 22:25 -3 26
D W L W L
12 19 7 4 8 24:22 2 25
L L D L L
13 19 7 4 8 23:24 -1 25
D W L W D
14 19 5 6 8 22:24 -2 21
L L L W D
15 19 5 6 8 27:31 -4 21
L W L L W
16 19 5 6 8 21:25 -4 21
L L W D L
17 19 5 5 9 22:30 -8 20
L L L L W
18 18 5 4 9 20:25 -5 19
W L W L D
19 19 4 6 9 21:32 -11 18
L W L W D
20 19 1 6 12 17:39 -22 9
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Corinthians 7 missing
-
M. Depay
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
Allan
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Joao Pedro
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Charles Rigon
Missing Fixture Heel Injury
OUT
-
Kayke
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Vitinho
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Alex Santana
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
Sao Paulo 6 missing
-
Lucas Moura
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
-
Ryan Francisco
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Pablo Maia
Missing Fixture Broken nose
OUT
-
Lucas Ramon
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
R. Toloi
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
Marcos Antonio
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT