CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio Ester Roa

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 97.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
97.2%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Concepción Win 45.9%
Draw 2.8%
U. Catolica Win 51.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Concepción1.22
U. Catolica1.82
Recent Form (Last 5)
Concepción Concepción
WWDLW
27 GF / 31 GA
U. Catolica U. Catolica
WLDWL
60 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
2.14
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
10
BTTS Yes
18
9
Over 2.5
21
3.81
Shots on Goal
4.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Concepción Concepción 23 matches
U. Catolica U. Catolica 28 matches
Concepción Statistic U. Catolica
9 Wins 17
3 Draws 4
11 Losses 7
27 Goals For 60
31 Goals Against 36
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 2.14
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
10 BTTS Yes 18
19 Over 1.5 24
9 Over 2.5 21
3 Over 3.5 11
6 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 4
3.81 Shots On Goal 4.86
12.88 Total Shots 13.23
4.5 Corners 5.09
47.1% Ball Possession 53.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by U. Catolica's more proactive style and Concepción's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. U. Catolica carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 26 points while Concepción sit 14 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward U. Catolica having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors U. Catolica.

Concepción Analysis

Concepción approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 14 points from 15 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 9 defeats with a 14:23 goal balance points toward good form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Joaquín Larrivey (4 goals), Cecilio Waterman (3 goals), Ignacio Mesías (2 goals), with creative support from Yerco Oyanedel (2 assists), Agustín Urzi (2 assists), Joaquín Larrivey (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

U. Catolica Analysis

U. Catolica approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 26 points after 15 outings. They have recorded 8 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with a 35:20 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Fernando Zampedri (6 goals), Justo Giani (5 goals), Clemente Montes (3 goals), with creative support from Clemente Montes (3 assists), Matías Palavecino (3 assists), Cristián Cuevas (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Concepción won 0 times, U. Catolica won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:2 from Concepción's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (97.2%)
Predicted formations: Concepción 4-2-3-1 / U. Catolica 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Concepción wins 0, draws 0, U. Catolica wins 1
Last matches: Concepción
27.07.26
Pri
Concepción
O'Higgins
2
0
W
12.07.26
Cop
Concepción
D. Puerto Montt
2
0
W
06.07.26
Cop
Concepción
Deportes Temuco
2
0
W
02.07.26
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
2
1
W
29.06.26
Cop
Concepción
D. Puerto Montt
0
2
L
24.06.26
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
3
2
W
21.06.26
Cop
Concepción
Deportes Temuco
1
1
D
14.06.26
Pri
Concepción
Deportes Limache
3
2
W
30.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Universidad de Chile
1
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Huachipato
2
0
W
18.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Everton de Vina
0
2
L
24.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Palestino
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Concepción
D. La Serena
3
3
D
14.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Union La Calera
0
1
L
05.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Colo Colo
0
1
L
13.03.26
Pri
Concepción
A. Italiano
0
3
L
06.03.26
Pri
Concepción
Nublense
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
20.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Cobresal
1
1
D
15.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
2
L
Last matches: U. Catolica
26.07.26
Pri
U. Catolica
D. La Serena
3
3
D
11.07.26
Cop
U. Catolica
San Luis
0
4
L
05.07.26
Cop
U. Catolica
Deportes Copiapo
2
1
W
01.07.26
Cop
U. Catolica
Everton de Vina
2
1
W
28.06.26
Cop
U. Catolica
San Luis
4
2
W
24.06.26
Cop
U. Catolica
Everton de Vina
3
1
W
20.06.26
Cop
U. Catolica
Deportes Copiapo
3
0
W
14.06.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Universidad de Concepcion
5
1
W
31.05.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Huachipato
3
0
W
29.05.26
CON
U. Catolica
Boca Juniors
1
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Colo Colo
1
2
L
22.05.26
CON
U. Catolica
Barcelona SC
2
0
W
17.05.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Deportes Limache
2
0
W
07.05.26
CON
U. Catolica
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
30.04.26
CON
U. Catolica
Barcelona SC
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Universidad de Chile
0
1
L
21.04.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Union La Calera
1
2
L
15.04.26
CON
U. Catolica
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
U. Catolica
A. Italiano
4
3
W
08.04.26
CON
U. Catolica
Boca Juniors
1
2
L
H2H: Concepción vs U. Catolica
08.02.26
H2H
U. Catolica
Concepción
2
0
L
Last matches: Concepción
27.07.26
Pri
Concepción
O'Higgins
2
0
W
12.07.26
Cop
Concepción
D. Puerto Montt
2
0
W
06.07.26
Cop
Concepción
Deportes Temuco
2
0
W
24.06.26
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
3
2
W
14.06.26
Pri
Concepción
Deportes Limache
3
2
W
24.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Huachipato
2
0
W
18.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Everton de Vina
0
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Concepción
D. La Serena
3
3
D
05.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Colo Colo
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pri
Concepción
Nublense
0
2
L
20.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Cobresal
1
1
D
14.01.26
Fri
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
02.07.25
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
1
1
D
07.06.25
Cop
Concepción
Union Espanola
1
0
W
06.04.25
Cop
Concepción
A. Italiano
0
0
D
23.03.25
Cop
Concepción
Palestino
3
2
W
26.06.24
Cop
Concepción
Linares Unido
2
3
L
27.03.22
Cop
Concepción
Fernández Vial
0
2
L
03.07.21
Cop
Concepción
Palestino
0
4
L
27.06.21
Cop
Concepción
Santiago Wanderers
1
1
D
Last matches: U. Catolica
11.07.26
Cop
U. Catolica
San Luis
0
4
L
24.06.26
Cop
U. Catolica
Everton de Vina
3
1
W
20.06.26
Cop
U. Catolica
Deportes Copiapo
3
0
W
31.05.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Huachipato
3
0
W
29.05.26
CON
U. Catolica
Boca Juniors
1
0
W
17.05.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Deportes Limache
2
0
W
30.04.26
CON
U. Catolica
Barcelona SC
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Universidad de Chile
0
1
L
15.04.26
CON
U. Catolica
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
U. Catolica
A. Italiano
4
3
W
07.03.26
Pri
U. Catolica
O'Higgins
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Nublense
2
1
W
14.02.26
Pri
U. Catolica
Cobresal
2
3
L
01.02.26
Pri
U. Catolica
D. La Serena
2
2
D
11.05.25
Cop
U. Catolica
Everton de Vina
1
2
L
10.02.25
Cop
U. Catolica
Union La Calera
2
2
D
01.02.25
Cop
U. Catolica
San Luis
1
2
L
23.06.24
Cop
U. Catolica
Santiago Wanderers
0
1
L
20.06.24
Cop
U. Catolica
Glorias Navales
2
0
W
20.08.23
Cop
U. Catolica
Colo Colo
0
1
L

Standings

Regular Season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 13 0 3 32:13 19 39
W W W W W
2 16 8 3 5 38:23 15 27
D W W L W
3 16 7 6 3 19:11 8 27
W W D W L
4 16 6 7 3 20:19 1 25
W D W D L
5 15 7 3 5 22:18 4 24
D W D W L
6 16 7 3 6 26:25 1 24
D D L L W
7 16 7 3 6 23:23 0 24
L W D W W
8 16 6 3 7 31:26 5 21
L L L L L
9 16 5 5 6 17:17 0 20
D L W D W
10 16 6 2 8 19:24 -5 20
L L D L L
11 16 4 7 5 24:28 -4 19
D D L W L
12 16 5 4 7 19:24 -5 19
D D D L L
13 15 5 4 6 13:26 -13 19
L D D W L
14 16 5 2 9 16:23 -7 17
W W L W L
15 16 4 4 8 19:23 -4 16
L D D W L
16 16 3 2 11 20:35 -15 11
D L L L W