CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio Ester Roa

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Concepción Win 64%
Draw 4%
Coquimbo Unido Win 32.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Concepción1.16
Coquimbo Unido1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Concepción Concepción
WWDLW
33 GF / 31 GA
Coquimbo Unido Coquimbo Unido
WLDWL
43 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
1.34
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
1
10
BTTS Yes
18
10
Over 2.5
14
3.63
Shots on Goal
4.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Concepción Concepción 26 matches
Coquimbo Unido Coquimbo Unido 32 matches
Concepción Statistic Coquimbo Unido
12 Wins 14
3 Draws 10
11 Losses 8
33 Goals For 43
31 Goals Against 32
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.34
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1
10 BTTS Yes 18
21 Over 1.5 23
10 Over 2.5 14
3 Over 3.5 6
9 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 7
3.63 Shots On Goal 4.58
12.68 Total Shots 12.04
4.32 Corners 6.13
45.5% Ball Possession 49%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Coquimbo Unido's more proactive style and Concepción's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Coquimbo Unido. Concepción come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Concepción Analysis

So far, Concepción have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 23 points from 18 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, while the 20:23 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on Joaquín Larrivey (7 goals), Cecilio Waterman (3 goals), Mario Sandoval (2 goals), with creative support from Yerco Oyanedel (2 assists), Agustín Urzi (2 assists), Joaquín Larrivey (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Coquimbo Unido Analysis

So far, Coquimbo Unido have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 25 points from 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, while the 24:21 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Nicolás Johansen (5 goals), Guido Vadalá (2 goals), Pablo Rodríguez (2 goals), with creative support from Juan Cornejo (3 assists), Francisco Salinas (1 assists), Cristián Zavala (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Concepción won 1 times, Coquimbo Unido won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:6 from Concepción's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.1%)
Predicted formations: Concepción 4-2-3-1 / Coquimbo Unido 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Concepción wins 1, draws 0, Coquimbo Unido wins 3
Last matches: Concepción
16.08.26
Pri
Concepción
Cobresal
2
0
W
09.08.26
Pri
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
W
02.08.26
Pri
Concepción
U. Catolica
3
0
W
27.07.26
Pri
Concepción
O'Higgins
2
0
W
12.07.26
Cop
Concepción
D. Puerto Montt
2
0
W
06.07.26
Cop
Concepción
Deportes Temuco
2
0
W
02.07.26
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
2
1
W
29.06.26
Cop
Concepción
D. Puerto Montt
0
2
L
24.06.26
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
3
2
W
21.06.26
Cop
Concepción
Deportes Temuco
1
1
D
14.06.26
Pri
Concepción
Deportes Limache
3
2
W
30.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Universidad de Chile
1
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Huachipato
2
0
W
18.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Everton de Vina
0
2
L
24.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Palestino
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Concepción
D. La Serena
3
3
D
14.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Union La Calera
0
1
L
05.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Colo Colo
0
1
L
13.03.26
Pri
Concepción
A. Italiano
0
3
L
06.03.26
Pri
Concepción
Nublense
0
2
L
Last matches: Coquimbo Unido
12.08.26
CON
Coquimbo Unido
Platense
1
1
D
08.08.26
Pri
Coquimbo Unido
D. La Serena
1
1
D
06.08.26
Cop
Coquimbo Unido
San Marcos de Arica
1
0
W
01.08.26
Pri
Coquimbo Unido
Palestino
1
2
L
04.07.26
Cop
Coquimbo Unido
Deportes Iquique
1
1
D
01.07.26
Cop
Coquimbo Unido
Deportes Limache
1
1
D
27.06.26
Cop
Coquimbo Unido
San Marcos de Arica
1
0
W
23.06.26
Cop
Coquimbo Unido
Deportes Limache
1
1
D
20.06.26
Cop
Coquimbo Unido
Deportes Iquique
3
0
W
13.06.26
Pri
Coquimbo Unido
O'Higgins
0
0
D
31.05.26
Pri
Coquimbo Unido
Deportes Limache
3
2
W
27.05.26
CON
Coquimbo Unido
Club Nacional
0
1
L
22.05.26
Pri
Coquimbo Unido
Everton de Vina
1
1
D
19.05.26
CON
Coquimbo Unido
Deportes Tolima
3
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Coquimbo Unido
A. Italiano
3
0
W
08.05.26
CON
Coquimbo Unido
Universitario
2
1
W
03.05.26
Pri
Coquimbo Unido
Colo Colo
1
3
L
29.04.26
CON
Coquimbo Unido
Deportes Tolima
0
3
L
24.04.26
Pri
Coquimbo Unido
Union La Calera
2
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Coquimbo Unido
Nublense
1
1
D
H2H: Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido
06.06.26
H2H
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
29.03.26
H2H
Coquimbo Unido
Concepción
2
1
L
28.02.26
H2H
Coquimbo Unido
Concepción
0
1
W
14.01.26
H2H
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
Last matches: Concepción
09.08.26
Pri
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
W
02.08.26
Pri
Concepción
U. Catolica
3
0
W
27.07.26
Pri
Concepción
O'Higgins
2
0
W
12.07.26
Cop
Concepción
D. Puerto Montt
2
0
W
06.07.26
Cop
Concepción
Deportes Temuco
2
0
W
24.06.26
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
3
2
W
14.06.26
Pri
Concepción
Deportes Limache
3
2
W
24.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Huachipato
2
0
W
18.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Everton de Vina
0
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Concepción
D. La Serena
3
3
D
05.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Colo Colo
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pri
Concepción
Nublense
0
2
L
20.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Cobresal
1
1
D
14.01.26
Fri
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
02.07.25
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
1
1
D
07.06.25
Cop
Concepción
Union Espanola
1
0
W
06.04.25
Cop
Concepción
A. Italiano
0
0
D
23.03.25
Cop
Concepción
Palestino
3
2
W
26.06.24
Cop
Concepción
Linares Unido
2
3
L
27.03.22
Cop
Concepción
Fernández Vial
0
2
L
H2H at home: Concepción
06.06.26
H2H
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
14.01.26
H2H
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
Last matches: Coquimbo Unido
12.08.26
CON
Coquimbo Unido
Platense
1
1
D
01.08.26
Pri
Coquimbo Unido
Palestino
1
2
L
04.07.26
Cop
Coquimbo Unido
Deportes Iquique
1
1
D
01.07.26
Cop
Coquimbo Unido
Deportes Limache
1
1
D
27.06.26
Cop
Coquimbo Unido
San Marcos de Arica
1
0
W
31.05.26
Pri
Coquimbo Unido
Deportes Limache
3
2
W
27.05.26
CON
Coquimbo Unido
Club Nacional
0
1
L
22.05.26
Pri
Coquimbo Unido
Everton de Vina
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Coquimbo Unido
Colo Colo
1
3
L
29.04.26
CON
Coquimbo Unido
Deportes Tolima
0
3
L
24.04.26
Pri
Coquimbo Unido
Union La Calera
2
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Coquimbo Unido
Universitario
2
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
Coquimbo Unido
Huachipato
3
1
W
21.02.26
Pri
Coquimbo Unido
U. Catolica
1
3
L
14.02.26
Pri
Coquimbo Unido
D. La Serena
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pri
Coquimbo Unido
Universidad de Concepcion
0
1
L
17.01.26
Fri
Coquimbo Unido
Huachipato
0
0
D
14.01.26
Fri
Coquimbo Unido
Concepción
2
1
W
11.07.25
Cop
Coquimbo Unido
Deportes Limache
1
2
L
02.07.25
Cop
Coquimbo Unido
Union La Calera
4
1
W
H2H away: Coquimbo Unido
06.06.26
H2H
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
W
14.01.26
H2H
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
W

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 15 1 3 40:19 21 46
D W W W W
2 19 10 6 3 26:13 13 36
W W W W W
3 18 9 3 6 40:26 14 30
W L D W W
4 19 9 3 7 31:27 4 30
W L W L W
5 18 7 8 3 24:22 2 29
W D W D W
6 19 7 6 6 28:22 6 27
D W L D L
7 19 8 2 9 22:23 -1 26
W W W W W
8 17 7 4 6 24:21 3 25
D L D W D
9 18 7 3 8 35:30 5 24
L W L L L
10 19 7 3 9 24:30 -6 24
D L W L L
11 19 7 3 9 28:36 -8 24
L L L D D
12 19 5 8 6 28:31 -3 23
W D L D D
13 19 5 6 8 23:26 -3 21
D D W L D
14 18 5 4 9 13:30 -17 19
L L L L D
15 19 5 2 12 26:36 -10 17
L L W D L
16 19 3 4 12 17:37 -20 13
L L L D D