FRANCE LIGUE 3
19.09.2026 12:45
Stade Guy Piriou

Concarneau vs Caen Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 48.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 66.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
48.2%
-
BTTS Yes
66.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Concarneau Win 34.9%
Draw 16.9%
Caen Win 48.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Concarneau1.49
Caen1.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
Concarneau Concarneau
WWDLW
18 GF / 12 GA
Caen Caen
WLDWL
26 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.64
Average Goals Scored
2.36
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
7
BTTS Yes
6
6
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Concarneau Concarneau 11 matches
Caen Caen 11 matches
Concarneau Statistic Caen
5 Wins 7
4 Draws 1
2 Losses 3
18 Goals For 26
12 Goals Against 14
1.64 Avg Goals Scored 2.36
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
7 BTTS Yes 6
9 Over 1.5 9
6 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Caen's more proactive style and Concarneau's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Caen having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Caen. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Caen carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 9 points while Concarneau sit 10 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Concarneau Analysis

Concarneau sit 10 with 6 points after 5 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, while the 5:5 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Caen Analysis

Caen approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 9 points after 5 outings. They have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a 10:5 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Concarneau won 1 times, Caen won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:6 from Concarneau's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.1%)
H2H summary: Concarneau wins 1, draws 2, Caen wins 2

Standings

National
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 2 0 12:2 10 14
W D W W W
2
Caen Away
6 4 0 2 12:5 7 12
W W L W L
3 6 3 3 0 7:4 3 12
D D W D W
4 6 3 2 1 12:10 2 11
L D D W W
5 6 2 4 0 7:2 5 10
D W W D D
6 6 2 3 1 7:6 1 9
W D D W D
7 6 3 0 3 10:11 -1 9
W L L W W
8 6 3 0 3 5:8 -3 9
W L W L W
9 6 2 2 2 4:6 -2 8
L D D W L
10 6 2 2 2 6:8 -2 8
W D W L D
11 6 2 2 2 6:2 4 8
D W W L L
12 6 2 2 2 10:7 3 8
W W L L D
13 6 2 1 3 5:6 -1 7
L D L W L
14 6 2 1 3 6:8 -2 7
L D L W L
15 6 1 2 3 5:9 -4 5
L D D L W
16 6 1 1 4 3:7 -4 4
L D W L L
17 6 1 1 4 5:13 -8 4
D L L L W
18 6 1 0 5 3:11 -8 3
L L L L L
Promotion - Ligue 2
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion)
Relegation