22.04.2026 18:00
Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra
Referee: D. Ureta
Comerciantes Unidos
Match Timeline
Alianza Atletico
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
C. A. Correa Flores ↔ M. Sen
Comerciantes Unidos
🟥
51'
José Villegas
Alianza Atletico
VAR
51'
José Villegas
Alianza Atletico
⚽
54'
J. Rodriguez · Assist: F. Rojas
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
66'
R. Vilca ↔ A. Arias
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
71'
E. M. Perez Azambuya ↔ W. Ayovi
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
71'
T. Salinas ↔ J. Herrera
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
74'
A. Gordillo ↔ E. Perleche
Alianza Atletico
🔄
79'
F. Flores ↔ J. Perez
Alianza Atletico
🔄
79'
C. Penilla ↔ J. del Castillo
Alianza Atletico
🟨
81'
Juan Rodríguez
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
86'
G. A. Larios Saavedra ↔ V. Robaldo
Alianza Atletico
🔄
86'
S. Fernandez ↔ H. Lupu
Alianza Atletico
🔄
87'
D. Lino ↔ A. Cossio
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
90+12'
Matías Córdova
Comerciantes Unidos
VAR
90+11'
Josuee Herrera
Comerciantes Unidos
VAR
90+1'
Jimmy Pérez
Alianza Atletico

Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 59.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
59.2%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Comerciantes Unidos Win 71%
Draw 0%
Alianza Atletico Win 29%
Expected Goals (xG)
Comerciantes Unidos1.23
Alianza Atletico1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos
WWDLW
16 GF / 17 GA
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico
WLDWL
9 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
0.82
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
9
BTTS Yes
4
6
Over 2.5
4
3.9
Shots on Goal
4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 12 matches
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 11 matches
Comerciantes Unidos Statistic Alianza Atletico
3 Wins 2
5 Draws 5
4 Losses 4
16 Goals For 9
17 Goals Against 12
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
9 BTTS Yes 4
9 Over 1.5 6
6 Over 2.5 4
4 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 5
3.9 Shots On Goal 4.5
11.3 Total Shots 12.2
3.8 Corners 3.4
42.3% Ball Possession 46.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Alianza Atletico's more proactive style and Comerciantes Unidos's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Comerciantes Unidos expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Alianza Atletico in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alianza Atletico having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Alianza Atletico.

Comerciantes Unidos Analysis

Comerciantes Unidos sit 9 with 13 points after 10 league matches. The record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 13:13 goal balance, points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through Matias Sen (4 goals), Maximiliano Perez (2 goals), R. Vilca (2 goals), with creative support from R. Vilca (3 assists), A. Cossio (2 assists), Matias Sen (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Alianza Atletico Analysis

Alianza Atletico are currently 13 in the standings with 11 points from 10 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, while the 9:8 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Franco Coronel (3 goals), F. Flores (1 goals), Hernan Lupú (1 goals), with creative support from Franco Coronel (1 assists), F. Flores (1 assists), Ariel Muñoz (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Comerciantes Unidos won 6 times, Alianza Atletico won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:21 from Comerciantes Unidos's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Comerciantes Unidos 4-2-3-1 / Alianza Atletico 4-3-3
H2H summary: Comerciantes Unidos wins 6, draws 1, Alianza Atletico wins 7

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 44:18 26 56
W L D L D
2 27 14 7 6 43:31 12 49
L W D W W
3 27 14 6 7 39:24 15 48
W L W W W
4 27 13 7 7 45:29 16 46
D W W L D
5 27 14 3 10 40:38 2 45
W L W W L
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 26 12 4 10 45:39 6 40
L W L L D
8 27 11 7 9 40:35 5 40
W L W W W
9 27 11 5 11 48:40 8 38
W W W L L
10 27 10 8 9 29:26 3 38
D W L W W
11 27 10 5 12 37:44 -7 35
W W W W L
12 27 9 7 11 42:52 -10 34
W W D W W
13 27 9 5 13 26:31 -5 32
L W L W W
14 27 7 9 11 35:38 -3 30
L L D L W
15 27 7 6 14 41:52 -11 27
L W L W L
16 27 6 7 14 29:42 -13 25
W L L L L
17 27 6 7 14 24:41 -17 25
L L L L W
18 27 4 8 15 32:50 -18 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2