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28.09.2026 20:00
Estadio Gunther Vogel
Referee: A. Colman
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Match Timeline
Deportivo Recoleta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
25'
Alex Junior Álvarez Rojas
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
46'
A. Silva ↔ W. Baez
Deportivo Recoleta
🔄
46'
P. Charpentier ↔ R. Martino
Deportivo Recoleta
🔄
64'
H. Gonzalez ↔ A. Benitez
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
64'
F. Aragon ↔ J. Salcedo
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
64'
A. Alvarez ↔ K. Ferreira Gonzalez
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
68'
A. Franco ↔ C. Garay
Deportivo Recoleta
🔄
68'
A. Gonzalez ↔ T. Vidal
Deportivo Recoleta
🔄
73'
G. Gerzel ↔ J. Duarte
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
82'
M. Ferreira ↔ J. Barrios
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
82'
B. Ferreira ↔ M. Schupp
Deportivo Recoleta
🟨
83'
J Duarte
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
VAR
90+5'
Luis Cáceres
Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Recoleta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 68.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
68.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Win 15.9%
Draw 15.9%
Deportivo Recoleta Win 68.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Club Sp. San Lorenzo0.99
Deportivo Recoleta1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Club Sp. San Lorenzo
WWDLW
17 GF / 62 GA
Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta
WLDWL
48 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
0.52
Average Goals Scored
1.45
1.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.7
12
BTTS Yes
24
13
Over 2.5
22
1.64
Shots on Goal
3.61

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Club Sp. San Lorenzo Club Sp. San Lorenzo 33 matches
Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 33 matches
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Statistic Deportivo Recoleta
3 Wins 10
7 Draws 5
23 Losses 18
17 Goals For 48
62 Goals Against 56
0.52 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
1.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.7
12 BTTS Yes 24
21 Over 1.5 28
13 Over 2.5 22
6 Over 3.5 13
5 Clean Sheets 4
18 Failed To Score 5
1.64 Shots On Goal 3.61
6.7 Total Shots 10.39
2.73 Corners 3.76
25.3% Ball Possession 48.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Deportivo Recoleta. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo Analysis

With 1 points from 11 games and a place of 12, Club Sp. San Lorenzo still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 10 defeats with a 3:21 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on F. Aragón (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportivo Recoleta Analysis

Deportivo Recoleta approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 7 points from 11 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 8 defeats with a 13:24 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on P. Charpentier (2 goals), H. López (2 goals), W. Báez (1 goals), with creative support from W. Báez (2 assists), P. Charpentier (1 assists), A. González (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Club Sp. San Lorenzo won 1 times, Deportivo Recoleta won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:15 from Club Sp. San Lorenzo's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.43 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (84.1%)
Predicted formations: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 4-4-2 / Deportivo Recoleta 4-4-2
H2H summary: Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins 1, draws 2, Deportivo Recoleta wins 4

Standings

Primera Division: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 8 3 3 22:10 12 27
D D W W W
2 13 8 2 3 21:14 7 26
W L D W W
3 13 7 4 2 16:13 3 25
W D L L W
4 14 7 3 4 24:14 10 24
D W W L W
5 13 6 5 2 20:8 12 23
D D W W L
6 13 5 6 2 14:10 4 21
D W W D W
7 14 6 2 6 18:14 4 20
W L L W D
8 13 4 6 3 15:15 0 18
L D D W W
9 14 4 1 9 14:27 -13 13
L L L W L
10 14 3 4 7 15:24 -9 13
D W D L L
11 13 2 2 9 14:26 -12 8
L D L L L
12 14 0 4 10 5:23 -18 4
D D D L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)