MEXICO LIGA MX
22.08.2026 03:10
Estadio La Corregidora
Referee: Y. Peinado Aguirre
Club Queretaro
Match Timeline
Toluca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Alexis Vega
Toluca
VAR
30'
Diego Barbosa
Toluca
🟥
31'
Diego Barbosa
Toluca
45+6'
Ali Ávila
Club Queretaro
VAR
45+2'
Ali Ávila
Club Queretaro
🟨
45+5'
Fernando Arce Juárez
Toluca
🔄
46'
F. Arce ↔ B. A. Garcia Caprizo
Toluca
🔄
46'
A. Vega ↔ N. Castro
Toluca
🟨
55'
Ali Ávila
Club Queretaro
🔄
58'
A. Alcala ↔ M. Coronel
Club Queretaro
🔄
58'
Paulo Victor ↔ I. Benito
Club Queretaro
65'
Helinho
Toluca
🔄
73'
B. Duarte ↔ W. Madrid
Club Queretaro
🔄
73'
Helinho ↔ Luan
Toluca
🟨
74'
Nicolás Castro
Toluca
🔄
74'
C. Garcia ↔ J. Martinez
Club Queretaro
🔄
74'
J. Angulo ↔ J. Diaz Price
Toluca
79'
S. Homenchenko · Assist: D. Parra
Club Queretaro
🟨
81'
Iker Benito
Club Queretaro
🔄
85'
Bruno Mendez ↔ V. Guzman
Toluca
🟨
89'
Santiago Homenchenko
Club Queretaro
🔄
90+3'
D. Parra ↔ E. Perez
Club Queretaro
90'
F. Vinas
Toluca

Club Queretaro vs Toluca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.5%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Club Queretaro Win 56.5%
Draw 6.2%
Toluca Win 37.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Club Queretaro1.32
Toluca1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Club Queretaro Club Queretaro
WWDLW
10 GF / 6 GA
Toluca Toluca
WLDWL
28 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
2.15
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
3
BTTS Yes
7
3
Over 2.5
9
4
Shots on Goal
6.55

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Club Queretaro Club Queretaro 7 matches
Toluca Toluca 13 matches
Club Queretaro Statistic Toluca
4 Wins 6
2 Draws 3
1 Losses 4
10 Goals For 28
6 Goals Against 15
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 2.15
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
3 BTTS Yes 7
4 Over 1.5 11
3 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 2
4 Shots On Goal 6.55
12.75 Total Shots 18
3.75 Corners 4.82
38.5% Ball Possession 60.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Club Queretaro won 4 times, Toluca won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:28 from Club Queretaro's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.8%)
Predicted formations: Club Queretaro 4-2-3-1 / Toluca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Club Queretaro wins 4, draws 4, Toluca wins 7

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 1 1 17:6 11 16
W W W D W
2 7 5 1 1 15:6 9 16
L W W W W
3 8 5 0 3 16:14 2 15
W W W L L
4 7 4 2 1 12:6 6 14
W D W W D
5 7 4 1 2 10:7 3 13
W W L D W
6 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
L W L W D
7 7 4 1 2 10:9 1 13
W L W W D
8 8 4 1 3 12:14 -2 13
L D L W W
9 8 3 2 3 13:8 5 11
W W D D L
10 7 3 2 2 11:9 2 11
W L D D W
11 7 3 1 3 13:10 3 10
D L L W W
12 7 3 1 3 9:9 0 10
L D W W W
13 8 2 2 4 9:13 -4 8
L D L D L
14 8 1 4 3 9:11 -2 7
D D D W L
15 8 1 4 3 7:12 -5 7
L D D L D
16 7 1 3 3 8:13 -5 6
L W D L D
17 7 0 1 6 4:12 -8 1
L D L L L
18 7 0 0 7 3:21 -18 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)