URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Gran Parque Central

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Club Nacional Win 68.7%
Draw 8.9%
Juventud Win 22.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Club Nacional1.51
Juventud1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Club Nacional Club Nacional
WWDLW
36 GF / 34 GA
Juventud Juventud
WLDWL
29 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.26
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
13
BTTS Yes
15
15
Over 2.5
13
4
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Club Nacional Club Nacional 24 matches
Juventud Juventud 23 matches
Club Nacional Statistic Juventud
11 Wins 7
3 Draws 5
10 Losses 11
36 Goals For 29
34 Goals Against 35
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
13 BTTS Yes 15
18 Over 1.5 16
15 Over 2.5 13
8 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 6
4 Shots On Goal 4.33
9.83 Total Shots 13.5
5 Corners 4.33
39.5% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Club Nacional's more proactive style and Juventud's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Juventud. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Club Nacional have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Club Nacional expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Juventud in 4-1-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Juventud having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Club Nacional Analysis

Club Nacional sit 7 with 22 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 26:21, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Gomez (11 goals), T. Veron (4 goals), Agustín Rogel (2 goals), with creative support from T. Veron (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Juventud Analysis

Juventud sit 14 with 15 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 8 defeats with a 17:22 goal balance points toward good form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on F. Mimbacas (7 goals), Alejo Cruz (3 goals), Ramiro Peralta (3 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Club Nacional won 9 times, Juventud won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:11 from Club Nacional's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.1%)
Predicted formations: Club Nacional 4-3-3 / Juventud 4-1-3-2
H2H summary: Club Nacional wins 9, draws 3, Juventud wins 3
Last matches: Club Nacional
31.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
0
3
L
27.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
23.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Albion FC
1
0
W
20.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Universitario
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Atletico Torque
2
1
W
10.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Cerro
4
0
W
07.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Deportes Tolima
0
3
L
03.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Albion FC
2
3
L
30.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Universitario
2
4
L
25.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Danubio
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Liverpool Montevideo
3
1
W
14.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Deportes Tolima
3
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
L
08.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Central Espanol
0
1
L
28.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Atletico Torque
3
2
W
24.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Cerro Largo
3
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
13.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Wanderers
2
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Juventud
1
3
L
Last matches: Juventud
31.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Wanderers
2
5
L
16.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Progreso
2
0
W
10.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Wanderers
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
20.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Penarol
2
2
D
12.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Progreso
1
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
30.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Boston River
1
2
L
25.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Cerro
0
1
L
22.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Albion FC
0
1
L
16.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Danubio
1
4
L
13.03.26
CON
Juventud
Independiente Medellin
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Club Nacional
3
1
W
06.03.26
CON
Juventud
Independiente Medellin
1
1
D
02.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Deportivo Maldonado
1
2
L
26.02.26
CON
Juventud
Club Guarani
2
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
Juventud
Central Espanol
0
1
L
19.02.26
CON
Juventud
Club Guarani
0
0
D
17.02.26
Pri
Juventud
Atletico Torque
2
2
D
H2H: Club Nacional vs Juventud
08.03.26
H2H
Juventud
Club Nacional
3
1
L
28.09.25
H2H
Juventud
Club Nacional
0
0
D
18.06.25
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
4
1
W
30.03.25
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
1
2
L
05.12.19
H2H
Juventud
Club Nacional
0
3
W
25.08.19
H2H
Juventud
Club Nacional
0
2
W
31.05.19
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
1
0
W
19.08.17
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
3
0
W
04.02.17
H2H
Juventud
Club Nacional
0
1
W
04.12.16
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
2
0
W
06.03.16
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
1
1
D
12.09.15
H2H
Juventud
Club Nacional
2
3
W
30.05.15
H2H
Juventud
Club Nacional
0
0
D
22.11.14
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
4
1
W
23.03.14
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
0
1
L
Last matches: Club Nacional
27.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
23.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Albion FC
1
0
W
20.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Universitario
0
0
D
10.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Cerro
4
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Danubio
1
2
L
14.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Deportes Tolima
3
1
W
03.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Central Espanol
0
1
L
24.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Cerro Largo
3
0
W
13.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Wanderers
2
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Penarol
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
30.11.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Penarol
1
0
W
18.10.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Miramar
3
1
W
04.10.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Cerro Largo
2
1
W
20.09.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Liverpool Montevideo
3
1
W
07.09.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Racing Montevideo
3
0
W
23.08.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Boston River
0
0
D
16.08.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Progreso
3
1
W
02.08.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Atletico Torque
5
2
W
H2H at home: Club Nacional
18.06.25
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
4
1
W
30.03.25
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
1
2
L
31.05.19
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
1
0
W
19.08.17
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
3
0
W
04.12.16
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
2
0
W
06.03.16
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
1
1
D
22.11.14
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
4
1
W
23.03.14
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
0
1
L
Last matches: Juventud
10.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
20.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Penarol
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
25.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Cerro
0
1
L
16.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Danubio
1
4
L
13.03.26
CON
Juventud
Independiente Medellin
1
2
L
02.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Deportivo Maldonado
1
2
L
26.02.26
CON
Juventud
Club Guarani
2
1
W
17.02.26
Pri
Juventud
Atletico Torque
2
2
D
13.02.26
CON
Juventud
Universidad Catolica
4
3
W
01.11.25
Pri
Juventud
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
20.10.25
Pri
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
04.10.25
Pri
Juventud
Boston River
0
0
D
21.09.25
Pri
Juventud
Penarol
0
1
L
05.09.25
Pri
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
22.08.25
Pri
Juventud
Wanderers
1
0
W
10.08.25
Pri
Juventud
Danubio
1
2
L
H2H away: Juventud
18.06.25
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
4
1
L
30.03.25
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
1
2
W
31.05.19
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
1
0
L
19.08.17
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
3
0
L
04.12.16
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
2
0
L
06.03.16
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
1
1
D
22.11.14
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
4
1
L
23.03.14
H2H
Club Nacional
Juventud
0
1
W

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D W D W
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
W W L D W
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
W W W W W
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D L D L
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
W L W L D
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W D W D L
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
W L L W L
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D W D W
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
L W D L W
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W L W L L
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L L W D D
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
L W L L D
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L W L W L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W W D D W
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
L L L W L
16 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
L L L D D