URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
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Gran Parque Central
Referee: H. Heras

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Club Nacional Win 88%
Draw 6%
Boston River Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Club Nacional1.42
Boston River1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Club Nacional Club Nacional
WWDLW
41 GF / 38 GA
Boston River Boston River
WLDWL
19 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
0.86
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
16
BTTS Yes
9
18
Over 2.5
9
3.43
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Club Nacional Club Nacional 28 matches
Boston River Boston River 22 matches
Club Nacional Statistic Boston River
13 Wins 6
4 Draws 4
11 Losses 12
41 Goals For 19
38 Goals Against 30
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 0.86
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
16 BTTS Yes 9
21 Over 1.5 14
18 Over 2.5 9
8 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 11
3.43 Shots On Goal 0
8.43 Total Shots 0
4.29 Corners 0
33.9% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Club Nacional's more proactive style and Boston River's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Boston River arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Club Nacional expected to line up in 4-1-3-2 and Boston River in 4-3-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Boston River having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Club Nacional arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 35 points compared to Boston River in 14 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Boston River.

Club Nacional Analysis

Club Nacional come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 35 points from 22 matches. Their overall return of 11 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 34:29 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Boston River Analysis

With 22 points from 22 games and a place of 14, Boston River still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 19:30, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Club Nacional won 11 times, Boston River won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 31:14 from Club Nacional's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Club Nacional 4-1-3-2 / Boston River 4-3-2-1
H2H summary: Club Nacional wins 11, draws 2, Boston River wins 2
Last matches: Club Nacional
02.08.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Progreso
2
1
W
17.07.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Wanderers
1
2
L
11.07.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Danubio
0
0
D
06.06.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Juventud
2
1
W
31.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
0
3
L
27.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
23.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Albion FC
1
0
W
20.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Universitario
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Atletico Torque
2
1
W
10.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Cerro
4
0
W
07.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Deportes Tolima
0
3
L
03.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Albion FC
2
3
L
30.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Universitario
2
4
L
25.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Danubio
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Liverpool Montevideo
3
1
W
14.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Deportes Tolima
3
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
L
08.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Central Espanol
0
1
L
28.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Atletico Torque
3
2
W
Last matches: Boston River
02.08.26
Pri
Boston River
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
18.07.26
Pri
Boston River
Penarol
0
3
L
12.07.26
Pri
Boston River
Central Espanol
0
0
D
07.06.26
Pri
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
01.06.26
Pri
Boston River
Liverpool Montevideo
0
1
L
23.05.26
Pri
Boston River
Cerro Largo
0
3
L
16.05.26
Pri
Boston River
Cerro
4
1
W
11.05.26
Pri
Boston River
Deportivo Maldonado
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Boston River
Central Espanol
2
1
W
24.04.26
Pri
Boston River
Atletico Torque
1
4
L
20.04.26
Pri
Boston River
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pri
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Boston River
Wanderers
4
1
W
30.03.26
Pri
Boston River
Juventud
2
1
W
25.03.26
Pri
Boston River
Penarol
0
2
L
22.03.26
Pri
Boston River
Progreso
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Boston River
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
10.03.26
Pri
Boston River
Liverpool Montevideo
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Boston River
Cerro
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Boston River
Albion FC
0
0
D
H2H: Club Nacional vs Boston River
08.02.26
H2H
Boston River
Club Nacional
1
2
W
23.08.25
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
0
0
D
08.06.25
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
2
1
W
22.02.25
H2H
Boston River
Club Nacional
2
3
W
01.12.24
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
3
1
W
28.07.24
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
1
0
W
04.06.24
H2H
Boston River
Club Nacional
1
3
W
19.10.23
H2H
Boston River
Club Nacional
2
0
L
10.03.23
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
3
1
W
14.09.22
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
1
0
W
24.07.22
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
2
0
W
10.04.22
H2H
Boston River
Club Nacional
0
6
W
16.10.21
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
3
2
W
19.06.21
H2H
Boston River
Club Nacional
1
1
D
25.03.21
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
1
2
L
Last matches: Club Nacional
02.08.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Progreso
2
1
W
17.07.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Wanderers
1
2
L
06.06.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Juventud
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
23.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Albion FC
1
0
W
20.05.26
CON
Club Nacional
Universitario
0
0
D
10.05.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Cerro
4
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Danubio
1
2
L
14.04.26
CON
Club Nacional
Deportes Tolima
3
1
W
03.04.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Central Espanol
0
1
L
24.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Cerro Largo
3
0
W
13.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Wanderers
2
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Penarol
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pri
Club Nacional
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
30.11.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Penarol
1
0
W
18.10.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Miramar
3
1
W
04.10.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Cerro Largo
2
1
W
20.09.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Liverpool Montevideo
3
1
W
07.09.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Racing Montevideo
3
0
W
23.08.25
Pri
Club Nacional
Boston River
0
0
D
H2H at home: Club Nacional
23.08.25
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
0
0
D
08.06.25
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
2
1
W
01.12.24
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
3
1
W
28.07.24
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
1
0
W
10.03.23
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
3
1
W
14.09.22
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
1
0
W
24.07.22
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
2
0
W
16.10.21
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
3
2
W
25.03.21
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
1
2
L
Last matches: Boston River
02.08.26
Pri
Boston River
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
18.07.26
Pri
Boston River
Penarol
0
3
L
07.06.26
Pri
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
23.05.26
Pri
Boston River
Cerro Largo
0
3
L
11.05.26
Pri
Boston River
Deportivo Maldonado
1
2
L
24.04.26
Pri
Boston River
Atletico Torque
1
4
L
11.04.26
Pri
Boston River
Defensor Sporting
0
2
L
30.03.26
Pri
Boston River
Juventud
2
1
W
22.03.26
Pri
Boston River
Progreso
1
0
W
27.02.26
Pri
Boston River
Cerro
1
1
D
15.02.26
Pri
Boston River
Danubio
0
2
L
09.11.25
Pri
Boston River
Cerro
0
0
D
31.10.25
Pri
Boston River
Wanderers
2
2
D
27.10.25
Pri
Boston River
Miramar
4
0
W
11.10.25
Pri
Boston River
Cerro Largo
2
2
D
27.09.25
Pri
Boston River
Liverpool Montevideo
1
2
L
13.09.25
Pri
Boston River
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
23.08.25
Pri
Boston River
Club Nacional
0
0
D
08.08.25
Pri
Boston River
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
11.06.16
Seg
Boston River
Tacuarembo
0
3
L
H2H away: Boston River
23.08.25
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
0
0
D
08.06.25
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
2
1
L
01.12.24
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
3
1
L
28.07.24
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
1
0
L
10.03.23
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
3
1
L
14.09.22
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
1
0
L
24.07.22
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
2
0
L
16.10.21
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
3
2
L
25.03.21
H2H
Club Nacional
Boston River
1
2
W

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 13 4 5 35:19 16 43
W W D W L
2 22 12 5 5 36:22 14 41
D L D W W
3 22 11 8 3 27:17 10 41
W L D D D
4 23 10 6 7 28:26 2 36
W D L D D
5 22 10 5 7 33:27 6 35
L W W L W
6 22 11 2 9 34:29 5 35
W L D W L
7 22 10 5 7 28:25 3 35
W W W D W
8 23 9 7 7 32:25 7 34
L D L D W
9 23 8 8 7 26:23 3 32
W D W L D
10 23 8 5 10 24:25 -1 29
D L W D D
11 22 6 9 7 19:20 -1 27
W L D D D
12 23 6 6 11 26:34 -8 24
D D W L D
13 22 4 10 8 22:30 -8 22
D L D D D
14 22 6 4 12 19:30 -11 22
L L D D L
15 22 5 4 13 14:34 -20 19
L W W L L
16 23 4 4 15 18:35 -17 16
L L W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)