🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
Soldier Field
Referee: J. Freemon

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.5%
Odds 1.52
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.43
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.5%
1.52
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.53
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.43
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89.5%
1.80
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.25
Correct Score 2-1
-
6.75
Probability Distribution
Chicago Fire Win 62.5%
Draw 5%
Charlotte Win 32.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chicago Fire1.59
Charlotte1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire
WWDLW
39 GF / 30 GA
Charlotte Charlotte
WLDWL
34 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.77
Average Goals Scored
1.62
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
13
BTTS Yes
13
15
Over 2.5
13
5.13
Shots on Goal
4.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 22 matches
Charlotte Charlotte 21 matches
Chicago Fire Statistic Charlotte
10 Wins 10
5 Draws 4
7 Losses 7
39 Goals For 34
30 Goals Against 28
1.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.62
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
13 BTTS Yes 13
16 Over 1.5 15
15 Over 2.5 13
10 Over 3.5 8
9 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 5
5.13 Shots On Goal 4.88
14.5 Total Shots 11.24
4.38 Corners 4.47
52.7% Ball Possession 46.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Charlotte. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Chicago Fire expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Charlotte in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Charlotte having the stronger overall control.

Chicago Fire Analysis

Chicago Fire come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 26 points after 15 matches. With 8 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 29:19, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Hugo Cuypers (8 goals), Philip Zinckernagel (5 goals), Maren Haile-Selassie (3 goals), with creative support from Philip Zinckernagel (6 assists), Maren Haile-Selassie (3 assists), Jonathan Bamba (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Charlotte Analysis

So far, Charlotte have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 22 points from 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, while the 26:25 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Pep Biel (4 goals), Idan Toklomati (3 goals), Kerwin Calderón Vargas (2 goals), with creative support from Kerwin Calderón Vargas (4 assists), Pep Biel (3 assists), Ashley Westwood (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Chicago Fire won 3 times, Charlotte won 5 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:17 from Chicago Fire's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 4.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)
Predicted formations: Chicago Fire 4-4-2 / Charlotte 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Chicago Fire wins 3, draws 0, Charlotte wins 5
Last matches: Chicago Fire
25.07.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
New York City FC
1
3
L
22.07.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Inter Miami
2
3
L
24.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Toronto FC
2
1
W
16.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
CF Montreal
2
0
W
13.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
DC United
3
1
W
09.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
New York Red Bulls
1
3
L
03.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
2
3
L
26.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Sporting Kansas City
5
0
W
18.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
3
3
D
12.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Atlanta United FC
1
0
W
05.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Nashville SC
1
0
W
21.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
15.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
DC United
1
2
L
08.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Columbus Crew
0
0
D
28.02.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
CF Montreal
3
0
W
22.02.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Houston Dynamo
1
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Portland Timbers
3
4
L
13.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Indy Eleven
0
0
D
11.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Austin
2
2
D
08.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Los Angeles Galaxy
3
2
W
Last matches: Charlotte
25.07.26
Maj
Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
23.07.26
Maj
Charlotte
Atlanta United FC
2
2
D
23.05.26
Maj
Charlotte
New England Revolution
1
0
W
16.05.26
Maj
Charlotte
Toronto FC
3
1
W
13.05.26
Maj
Charlotte
New York City FC
0
1
L
09.05.26
Maj
Charlotte
FC Cincinnati
2
2
D
02.05.26
Maj
Charlotte
New England Revolution
0
1
L
26.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
Nashville SC
2
4
L
22.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
Orlando City SC
1
4
L
18.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
New York City FC
2
1
W
11.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
Nashville SC
1
2
L
04.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
21.03.26
Maj
Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
6
1
W
14.03.26
Maj
Charlotte
Inter Miami
0
0
D
08.03.26
Maj
Charlotte
Austin
3
1
W
01.03.26
Maj
Charlotte
Los Angeles Galaxy
0
3
L
21.02.26
Maj
Charlotte
St. Louis City
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
Charlotte
Minnesota United FC
2
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Charlotte
San Jose Earthquakes
0
1
L
31.01.26
Fri
Charlotte
Sporting Kansas City
1
0
W
H2H: Chicago Fire vs Charlotte
29.06.25
H2H
Chicago Fire
Charlotte
3
2
W
17.05.25
H2H
Charlotte
Chicago Fire
1
4
W
02.10.24
H2H
Charlotte
Chicago Fire
4
3
L
16.05.24
H2H
Chicago Fire
Charlotte
0
1
L
08.10.23
H2H
Chicago Fire
Charlotte
0
2
L
17.05.23
H2H
Charlotte
Chicago Fire
2
1
L
18.09.22
H2H
Chicago Fire
Charlotte
2
3
L
06.08.22
H2H
Charlotte
Chicago Fire
2
3
W
Last matches: Chicago Fire
24.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Toronto FC
2
1
W
09.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
New York Red Bulls
1
3
L
03.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
2
3
L
26.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Sporting Kansas City
5
0
W
12.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Atlanta United FC
1
0
W
05.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Nashville SC
1
0
W
15.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
DC United
1
2
L
28.02.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
CF Montreal
3
0
W
14.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Portland Timbers
3
4
L
H2H at home: Chicago Fire
29.06.25
H2H
Chicago Fire
Charlotte
3
2
W
16.05.24
H2H
Chicago Fire
Charlotte
0
1
L
08.10.23
H2H
Chicago Fire
Charlotte
0
2
L
18.09.22
H2H
Chicago Fire
Charlotte
2
3
L
Last matches: Charlotte
25.07.26
Maj
Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
02.05.26
Maj
Charlotte
New England Revolution
0
1
L
26.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
Nashville SC
2
4
L
22.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
Orlando City SC
1
4
L
18.04.26
Maj
Charlotte
New York City FC
2
1
W
01.03.26
Maj
Charlotte
Los Angeles Galaxy
0
3
L
21.02.26
Maj
Charlotte
St. Louis City
1
1
D
07.02.26
Fri
Charlotte
San Jose Earthquakes
0
1
L
31.01.26
Fri
Charlotte
Sporting Kansas City
1
0
W
H2H away: Charlotte
29.06.25
H2H
Chicago Fire
Charlotte
3
2
L
16.05.24
H2H
Chicago Fire
Charlotte
0
1
W
08.10.23
H2H
Chicago Fire
Charlotte
0
2
W
18.09.22
H2H
Chicago Fire
Charlotte
2
3
W
Showing odds from: Bet365
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.45
Draw 4.92
Home 1.52
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.39
Draw 2.79
Home 1.99
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.13
Over 2.5 1.43
Over 2.75 1.53
Over 3.0 1.67
Over 3.25 1.91
Over 3.5 2.13
Over 3.75 2.43
Over 4.5 3.56
Over 5.5 6.65
Under 1.5 6.21
Under 2.5 2.89
Under 2.75 2.60
Under 3.0 2.28
Under 3.25 1.96
Under 3.5 1.76
Under 3.75 1.59
Under 4.5 1.31
Under 5.5 1.12
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 4.33
Home 1.53
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.62
Home 1.95
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 2.88
Home 1.80
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.5 1.12
Over 2.5 1.44
Over 3.5 2.00
Over 4.5 3.50
Over 5.5 6.50
Over 6.5 13.00
Over 7.5 26.00
Over 8.5 51.00
Under 0.5 19.00
Under 1.5 6.00
Under 2.5 2.70
Under 3.5 1.73
Under 4.5 1.28
Under 5.5 1.11
Under 6.5 1.04
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.40
Draw 4.50
Home 1.52
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.90
Draw 2.60
Home 1.96
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 3.10
Home 1.83
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.12
Over 2.5 1.45
Over 2.75 1.55
Over 3.0 1.68
Over 3.25 1.91
Over 3.5 2.12
Over 3.75 2.45
Over 4.0 3.00
Over 4.5 3.70
Over 5.5 6.75
Over 6.5 12.00
Under 1.5 5.60
Under 2.5 2.70
Under 2.75 2.38
Under 3.0 2.10
Under 3.25 1.84
Under 3.5 1.67
Under 3.75 1.52
Under 4.0 1.36
Under 4.5 1.26
Under 5.5 1.09
Under 6.5 1.01

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 3 2 33:12 21 39
L W W W W
2 17 11 4 2 43:30 13 37
W W W W W
3 16 9 2 5 26:19 7 29
W D L W L
4 16 8 2 6 30:22 8 26
L L W W W
5 18 7 5 6 31:24 7 26
D W W L D
6 17 7 4 6 28:25 3 25
W D W W L
7 17 6 5 6 41:42 -1 23
L W W D L
8 17 6 4 7 26:37 -11 22
L L W D W
9 17 5 7 5 24:27 -3 22
W D D D L
10 17 6 2 9 28:44 -16 20
W W L D W
11 17 5 4 8 24:26 -2 19
W L W D L
12 18 3 8 7 24:32 -8 17
D L D D L
13 17 4 3 10 22:33 -11 15
L L D D L
14 17 3 4 10 22:31 -9 13
W W L D L
15 17 3 3 11 17:30 -13 12
L D L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)