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BULGARIA › FIRST LEAGUE
11.10.2026 14:30
Ticha Stadium
Referee: Radoslav Gidzhenov
Cherno More Varna
Match Timeline
Levski Sofia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
24'
Gasper Trdin
Levski Sofia
⚽
27'
Mehdi Moubarik
Levski Sofia
🔄
38'
Mustapha Sangaré ↔ Álex Centelles
Levski Sofia
🔄
57'
Mohamed Achi Bouakline ↔ Ivan·Tasev
Cherno More Varna
🟨
60'
L. Squadrone
Cherno More Varna
🔄
60'
Wabo Oliver Kamdem ↔ Aldair
Levski Sofia
🔄
60'
Gasper Trdin ↔ Kristian Dimitrov
Levski Sofia
⚽
63'
Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno
Levski Sofia
🔄
71'
Idris·Bounaas ↔ Berk Beyhan
Cherno More Varna
🔄
71'
Vasil Panayotov ↔ Padilla Jorge
Cherno More Varna
🔄
78'
celso sidney ↔ Miguel barandas
Cherno More Varna
🔄
78'
Georgi ventsislavov ↔ Nestorly lumbu
Cherno More Varna
🟨
81'
Padilla Jorge
Cherno More Varna
🟨
84'
Ertan Tombak
Cherno More Varna
🔄
87'
Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno ↔ Juan Perea
Levski Sofia
🔄
87'
bala everton ↔ Steven Stoyanchov
Levski Sofia

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 64.3%
Odds 1.64
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 2.20
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.27
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
64.3%
1.64 ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
2.20 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.27 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.7%
1.51 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.33 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Cherno More Varna Win 31.6%
Draw 4.1%
Levski Sofia Win 64.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cherno More Varna1
Levski Sofia1.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna
WWDLW
30 GF / 31 GA
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia
WLDWL
53 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1.96
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
0.63
10
BTTS Yes
10
11
Over 2.5
15
4.9
Shots on Goal
4.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 24 matches
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 27 matches
Cherno More Varna Statistic Levski Sofia
9 Wins 17
6 Draws 7
9 Losses 3
30 Goals For 53
31 Goals Against 17
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.96
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 0.63
10 BTTS Yes 10
14 Over 1.5 18
11 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 9
8 Clean Sheets 15
7 Failed To Score 6
4.9 Shots On Goal 4.56
10.2 Total Shots 12.28
5 Corners 5.33
51.6% Ball Possession 58.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Levski Sofia's more proactive style and Cherno More Varna's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Levski Sofia carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 25 points while Cherno More Varna sit 13 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Levski Sofia look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Levski Sofia. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cherno More Varna Analysis

Cherno More Varna sit 13 with 6 points after 10 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, while the 11:20 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Levski Sofia Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 25 points from 9 games, Levski Sofia bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 8 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats plus a goal balance of 21:4, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cherno More Varna won 5 times, Levski Sofia won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:14 from Cherno More Varna's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.9%)
Predicted formations: Cherno More Varna 4-2-3-1 / Levski Sofia 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cherno More Varna wins 5, draws 4, Levski Sofia wins 6

Standings

A PFG
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 8 1 0 21:4 17 25
D W W W W
2 10 7 3 0 24:7 17 24
D W W D W
3 9 7 2 0 16:7 9 23
W W D D W
4 10 7 1 2 19:10 9 22
W W L W L
5 11 6 1 4 17:14 3 19
W W W W L
6 10 5 2 3 15:12 3 17
D L L W W
7 11 3 4 4 11:15 -4 13
W L D D D
8 11 2 5 4 9:9 0 11
L L D W L
9 11 2 3 6 9:20 -11 9
L D D W L
10 11 2 2 7 13:21 -8 8
W D L L D
11 11 2 2 7 6:14 -8 8
D D L W L
12 11 1 5 5 12:19 -7 8
D W L D L
13 11 2 2 7 10:21 -11 8
L L L L D
14 10 1 3 6 11:20 -9 6
D D L L W
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