BRAZIL SERIE A
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 88.3%
Odds 1.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.00
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
88.3%
1.30
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.00
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74.5%
1.24
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Chapecoense-sc Win 11.7%
Draw 42.3%
Vasco DA Gama Win 46%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chapecoense-sc1.22
Vasco DA Gama1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc
WWDLW
21 GF / 42 GA
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WLDWL
23 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.15
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
13
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
11
3.3
Shots on Goal
5.3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 21 matches
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 20 matches
Chapecoense-sc Statistic Vasco DA Gama
2 Wins 5
7 Draws 6
12 Losses 9
21 Goals For 23
42 Goals Against 31
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
13 BTTS Yes 14
19 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 11
7 Over 3.5 4
1 Clean Sheets 1
8 Failed To Score 5
3.3 Shots On Goal 5.3
12.3 Total Shots 17.6
3.7 Corners 5.35
42.2% Ball Possession 54.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Vasco DA Gama. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Vasco DA Gama carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 17 with 20 points while Chapecoense-sc sit 20 on 9, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Chapecoense-sc Analysis

Chapecoense-sc sit 20 with 9 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 1 wins, 6 draws, and 11 defeats with a 17:35 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Walter Clar (3 goals), Jean Carlos (2 goals), Neto Pessoa (2 goals), with creative support from Bruno Pacheco (3 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), Walter Clar (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

Vasco DA Gama sit 17 with 20 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 5 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 22:30 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Thiago Mendes (3 goals), Andrés Gómez (3 goals), Puma Rodríguez (2 goals), with creative support from Puma Rodríguez (3 assists), Cuiabano (2 assists), David (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Chapecoense-sc won 2 times, Vasco DA Gama won 2 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:11 from Chapecoense-sc's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 1.91 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (88.3%)
Predicted formations: Chapecoense-sc 4-2-3-1 / Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Chapecoense-sc wins 2, draws 7, Vasco DA Gama wins 2
Last matches: Chapecoense-sc
25.07.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Santos
2
2
D
23.07.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Flamengo
0
4
L
17.07.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Bahia
0
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Chapecoense-sc
Gremio
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Palmeiras
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Remo
2
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Mirassol
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
RB Bragantino
1
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Fluminense
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Botafogo
1
4
L
12.04.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
05.04.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Vitoria
1
1
D
02.04.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Atletico-MG
0
4
L
22.03.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Internacional
0
2
L
20.03.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Corinthians
0
0
D
16.03.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Gremio
1
1
D
12.03.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Sao Paulo
0
2
L
11.02.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Coritiba
3
3
D
05.02.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
Last matches: Vasco DA Gama
25.07.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
1
D
16.07.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
0
1
L
31.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
RB Bragantino
0
3
L
16.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Internacional
1
4
L
10.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Flamengo
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Corinthians
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Remo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Botafogo
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Coritiba
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
2
1
W
19.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Fluminense
3
2
W
15.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
3
3
D
12.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
2
1
W
26.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Santos
1
2
L
12.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
0
1
L
05.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
29.01.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
2
L
H2H: Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama
29.07.26
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
0
0
D
05.02.26
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
31.07.22
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Chapecoense-sc
0
0
D
23.04.22
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
0
0
D
08.12.19
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Chapecoense-SC
1
1
D
14.09.19
H2H
Chapecoense-SC
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
W
26.08.18
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Chapecoense-sc
3
1
L
22.04.18
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
30.09.17
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
15.06.17
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
15.10.15
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
05.07.15
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
Last matches: Chapecoense-sc
23.07.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Flamengo
0
4
L
17.05.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Remo
2
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
RB Bragantino
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Botafogo
1
4
L
05.04.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Vitoria
1
1
D
02.04.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Atletico-MG
0
4
L
20.03.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Corinthians
0
0
D
16.03.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Gremio
1
1
D
11.02.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Coritiba
3
3
D
28.01.26
Ser
Chapecoense-sc
Santos
4
2
W
H2H at home: Chapecoense-sc
29.07.26
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
0
0
D
23.04.22
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
0
0
D
22.04.18
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
15.06.17
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
05.07.15
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
Last matches: Vasco DA Gama
16.07.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Internacional
1
4
L
03.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Flamengo
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Corinthians
0
1
L
11.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Remo
1
1
D
01.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Coritiba
1
1
D
15.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
3
3
D
26.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Santos
1
2
L
29.01.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
2
L
H2H away: Vasco DA Gama
29.07.26
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
0
0
D
23.04.22
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
0
0
D
14.09.19
H2H
Chapecoense-SC
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
W
22.04.18
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
15.06.17
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
L
05.07.15
H2H
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.15
Draw 3.25
Home 3.40
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 2.10
Home 4.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.50
Draw 2.38
Home 3.40
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.5 2.00
Over 3.5 3.50
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Under 0.5 9.50
Under 1.5 3.40
Under 2.5 1.80
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.43
Draw 3.17
Home 3.17
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.90
Draw 2.05
Home 3.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 2.25
Home 3.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 0.75 1.03
Over 1.0 1.09
Over 1.25 1.21
Over 1.5 1.37
Over 1.75 1.42
Over 2.0 1.58
Over 2.25 1.88
Over 2.5 2.13
Over 2.75 2.45
Over 3.0 2.95
Over 3.25 3.16
Over 3.5 3.60
Over 3.75 4.27
Over 4.0 5.70
Over 4.25 6.70
Over 4.5 6.40
Over 5.5 19.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 6.80
Under 0.75 7.55
Under 1.0 5.70
Under 1.25 3.86
Under 1.5 2.85
Under 1.75 2.65
Under 2.0 2.20
Under 2.25 1.96
Under 2.5 1.74
Under 2.75 1.58
Under 3.0 1.35
Under 3.25 1.29
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 3.75 1.17
Under 4.0 1.09
Under 4.25 1.05
Under 4.5 1.07
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.08
Draw 3.25
Home 3.60
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.70
Draw 2.15
Home 3.85
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.35
Draw 2.55
Home 3.55
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 2.0 1.45
Over 2.25 1.68
Over 2.5 1.92
Over 2.75 2.18
Over 3.0 2.65
Over 3.25 2.95
Over 3.5 3.30
Over 4.5 6.50
Over 5.5 13.00
Under 0.5 9.50
Under 1.5 3.55
Under 2.0 2.70
Under 2.25 2.15
Under 2.5 1.85
Under 2.75 1.67
Under 3.0 1.47
Under 3.25 1.38
Under 3.5 1.33
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 5.5 1.01

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 14 5 2 38:16 22 47
W L W W W
2 20 11 6 3 37:18 19 39
D D W W L
3 21 11 4 6 28:19 9 37
D W W W W
4 21 9 7 5 30:25 5 34
D D D D L
5 21 8 8 5 29:25 4 32
D D D W W
6 20 9 4 7 26:20 6 31
D D W W W
7 21 8 6 7 27:30 -3 30
W L W D W
8 20 8 5 7 34:32 2 29
W D W L D
9 21 7 8 6 22:20 2 29
D D W W W
10 20 8 4 8 25:25 0 28
W D W L W
11 21 7 6 8 25:28 -3 27
L D L L W
12 20 7 5 8 25:23 2 26
D L L D L
13 21 7 5 9 22:31 -9 26
L L D W L
14 20 6 5 9 23:27 -4 23
W D W L W
15 20 5 7 8 29:33 -4 22
D L W L L
16 21 5 7 9 23:27 -4 22
D L L L L
17 20 5 7 8 22:26 -4 22
D L L W D
18 20 5 6 9 23:31 -8 21
D L L L L
19 21 5 6 10 24:34 -10 21
L W L W L
20 20 1 7 12 19:41 -22 10
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Copa Sudamericana Group Stage
Relegation