URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: H. Heras
Cerro
Match Timeline
Racing Montevideo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
N. Arena
Cerro
🔄
46'
R. Dudok ↔ Y. Oyarzo
Racing Montevideo
🔄
60'
J. Bosca ↔ J. Varela
Racing Montevideo
🔄
60'
T. Habib ↔ I. Manzur
Racing Montevideo
🔄
62'
Brazionis ↔ F. Suarez
Racing Montevideo
🔄
65'
A. Miranda ↔ P. Nongoy
Cerro
🟨
67'
D. Suarez
Cerro
🟨
67'
S. Da Silva
Racing Montevideo
🟨
69'
Y. Oyarzo
Racing Montevideo
🔄
77'
M. Ferreira ↔ R. Gadea
Racing Montevideo
🟨
78'
N. Arena
Cerro
🔄
80'
B. Aleman ↔ B. Morales
Cerro
🟨
90+3'
B. Morales
Cerro
🔄
90+4'
C. Barros ↔ E. Sosa
Cerro

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.7%
Odds 1.81
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.53
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.7%
1.81
BTTS No
55%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.53
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
1.91
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.33
Correct Score 0-1
-
5.00
Probability Distribution
Cerro Win 27.8%
Draw 16.5%
Racing Montevideo Win 55.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerro0.68
Racing Montevideo1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerro Cerro
WWDLW
12 GF / 32 GA
Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo
WLDWL
26 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
0.6
Average Goals Scored
1.3
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
0.8
8
BTTS Yes
11
7
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerro Cerro 20 matches
Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo 20 matches
Cerro Statistic Racing Montevideo
4 Wins 10
4 Draws 8
12 Losses 2
12 Goals For 26
32 Goals Against 16
0.6 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 0.8
8 BTTS Yes 11
12 Over 1.5 13
7 Over 2.5 6
4 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 8
9 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Racing Montevideo's more proactive style and Cerro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Cerro have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Racing Montevideo. Racing Montevideo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 38 points while Cerro sit 15 on 16, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerro expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Racing Montevideo in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Racing Montevideo having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cerro Analysis

Cerro sit 15 with 16 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 12:32, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Racing Montevideo Analysis

Racing Montevideo arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 38 points after 20 matches. The record of 10 wins, 8 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 26:16 goal balance, points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cerro won 5 times, Racing Montevideo won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:12 from Cerro's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.5%)
Predicted formations: Cerro 4-1-4-1 / Racing Montevideo 4-4-2
H2H summary: Cerro wins 5, draws 4, Racing Montevideo wins 6

Lineups

Cerro
Formation
Racing Montevideo
Yonatan Irrazábal
Yonatan Irrazábal
Damián Suárez
Damián Suárez
Juan Cruz Guasone
Juan Cruz Guasone
Nahuel Arena
Nahuel Arena
Francisco Bregante
Francisco Bregante
Jairo Amaro
Jairo Amaro
Alejo Macelli
Alejo Macelli
Agustín Miranda
Agustín Miranda
Brahian Alemán
Brahian Alemán
Alejandro Severo
Alejandro Severo
Cristian Barros
Cristian Barros
Federico Varese
Federico Varese
Guillermo Cotugno
Guillermo Cotugno
Ramiro Brazionis
Ramiro Brazionis
Felipe Alvarez
Felipe Alvarez
Martín Ferreira
Martín Ferreira
Esteban Da Silva
Esteban Da Silva
Juan Bosca Fraquelli
Juan Bosca Fraquelli
Álex Vázquez
Álex Vázquez
Rodrigo Dudok
Rodrigo Dudok
Tomas Habib
Tomas Habib
Sebastián da Silva
Sebastián da Silva
Cerro 4-3-1-2
Starting XI
12
Yonatan Irrazábal
G
22
Damián Suárez
🟨 67'
D
16
Juan Cruz Guasone
D
21
Nahuel Arena
⚽ 4' 🟨 78'
D
6
Francisco Bregante
D
31
Jairo Amaro
M
5
Alejo Macelli
M
8
Agustín Miranda
↓ 65'
M
10
Brahian Alemán
↓ 80'
M
7
Alejandro Severo
F
27
Cristian Barros
↓ 90+4'
M
Substitutes
35
Pablo Nongoy
↑ 65'
M
40
Diego Capdevila
G
4
Mateo Argüello
D
3
Ariel Lima
D
21
Axel Mendez
M
13
Brian Quinteros
M
19
Emiliano Sosa
↑ 90+4'
M
9
Bruno Morales
↑ 80' 🟨 90+3'
F
33
Tiago Rijo
F
14
Nahuel Soria
F
Racing Montevideo 4-4-2
Starting XI
12
Federico Varese
G
4
Guillermo Cotugno
D
3
Ramiro Brazionis
↓ 62'
D
13
Felipe Alvarez
D
17
Martín Ferreira
↓ 77'
D
10
Esteban Da Silva
M
5
Juan Bosca Fraquelli
↓ 60'
M
39
Álex Vázquez
M
19
Rodrigo Dudok
↓ 46'
F
18
Tomas Habib
↓ 60'
F
9
Sebastián da Silva
🟨 67'
F
Substitutes
37
Yury Oyarzo
↑ 46' 🟨 69'
M
7
Jose Varela
↑ 60'
M
81
Ivan Manzur
↑ 60'
F
11
Franco Suárez
↑ 62'
F
30
Rodrigo Gadea
↑ 77'
F
1
Facundo Machado
G
20
Elias Bentancor
D
41
Christian Oliva
M
23
Nicolás Sosa
F
8
Lucca Loprete Araújo
Last matches: Cerro
12.07.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
07.06.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
0
1
L
29.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
4
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
4
L
02.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
3
L
19.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
28.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
0
3
L
25.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
1
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
1
3
L
14.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
16.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Albion FC
0
3
L
09.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
0
1
L
Last matches: Racing Montevideo
12.07.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
1
1
D
06.06.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Central Espanol
1
1
D
30.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Central Espanol
0
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
26.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
12.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Wanderers
2
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Juventud
2
1
W
29.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
2
1
W
26.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Albion FC
3
1
W
21.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Danubio
4
0
W
14.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
1
D
08.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
L
H2H: Cerro vs Racing Montevideo
08.03.26
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
1
0
L
15.01.26
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
2
1
L
10.08.25
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
08.02.25
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
0
1
W
20.10.24
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
19.04.24
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
1
1
D
07.12.23
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
0
1
W
25.06.23
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
15.05.23
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
0
W
28.08.22
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
05.06.22
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
1
0
L
14.10.21
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
0
W
30.06.21
H2H
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
0
0
D
14.09.19
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
0
W
28.07.19
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
Last matches: Cerro
07.06.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
0
1
L
24.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
25.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
09.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
0
1
L
09.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
0
0
D
01.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
0
D
25.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
2
0
W
11.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
21.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Miramar
1
0
W
07.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
24.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
10.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
22.10.22
Seg
Cerro
Rampla Juniors
0
0
D
08.10.22
Seg
Cerro
Miramar
1
3
L
H2H at home: Cerro
10.08.25
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
20.10.24
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
25.06.23
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
15.05.23
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
0
W
28.08.22
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
14.10.21
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
0
W
14.09.19
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
0
W
28.07.19
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
Last matches: Racing Montevideo
06.06.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Central Espanol
1
1
D
22.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
09.05.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Central Espanol
0
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Wanderers
2
1
W
29.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
2
1
W
14.03.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Albion FC
3
1
W
14.02.26
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
1
D
07.11.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Miramar
2
0
W
25.10.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro Largo
2
2
D
11.10.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo
2
2
D
21.09.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
CA River Plate
3
2
W
07.09.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Club Nacional
0
3
L
24.08.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Atletico Torque
0
4
L
10.08.25
Pri
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
2
1
W
25.09.22
Seg
Racing Montevideo
Villa Espanola
2
1
W
10.09.22
Seg
Racing Montevideo
Central Espanol
2
1
W
28.08.22
Seg
Racing Montevideo
Cerro
0
0
D
20.08.22
Seg
Racing Montevideo
La Luz
0
0
D
H2H away: Racing Montevideo
10.08.25
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
2
W
20.10.24
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
25.06.23
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
2
W
15.05.23
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
0
L
28.08.22
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
14.10.21
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
0
L
14.09.19
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
0
L
28.07.19
H2H
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
1
2
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.81
Draw 3.39
Home 4.96
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.50
Draw 2.05
Home 5.89
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.10
Over 1.5 1.50
Over 1.75 1.63
Over 2.0 1.88
Over 2.25 2.21
Over 2.5 2.54
Over 3.5 4.96
Under 0.5 7.21
Under 1.5 2.64
Under 1.75 2.30
Under 2.0 1.96
Under 2.25 1.68
Under 2.5 1.53
Under 3.5 1.18
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.75
Draw 3.50
Home 4.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.50
Draw 2.00
Home 6.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.20
Draw 2.25
Home 4.75
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.5 1.50
Over 2.5 2.40
Over 3.5 5.00
Over 4.5 11.00
Over 5.5 26.00
Over 6.5 51.00
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 1.5 2.50
Under 2.5 1.53
Under 3.5 1.17
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.77
Draw 3.10
Home 4.74
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.43
Draw 1.93
Home 5.72
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.19
Draw 2.24
Home 4.94
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 0.75 1.08
Over 1.0 1.10
Over 1.25 1.29
Over 1.5 1.44
Over 1.75 1.60
Over 2.0 1.79
Over 2.25 2.11
Over 2.5 2.44
Over 2.75 2.85
Over 3.0 3.78
Over 3.25 4.16
Over 3.5 4.55
Over 3.75 5.75
Over 4.0 8.30
Over 4.5 8.90
Over 5.5 20.00
Over 6.5 50.00
Under 0.5 6.40
Under 0.75 5.80
Under 1.0 5.15
Under 1.25 3.18
Under 1.5 2.43
Under 1.75 2.19
Under 2.0 1.83
Under 2.25 1.62
Under 2.5 1.49
Under 2.75 1.34
Under 3.0 1.19
Under 3.25 1.16
Under 3.5 1.13
Under 3.75 1.07
Under 4.0 1.02
Under 4.5 1.01
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.75
Draw 3.20
Home 4.90
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.48
Draw 2.00
Home 5.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.20
Draw 2.25
Home 4.90
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.09
Over 1.0 1.14
Over 1.5 1.52
Over 2.0 1.96
Over 2.5 2.60
Over 3.0 4.30
Over 3.25 4.70
Over 3.5 5.00
Under 0.5 5.80
Under 1.0 4.70
Under 1.5 2.32
Under 2.0 1.74
Under 2.5 1.42
Under 3.0 1.17
Under 3.25 1.15
Under 3.5 1.13

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D D D D
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
L D W W D
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
L D W L L
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D W L W
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
L D D W L
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W W L W W
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
L D W L W
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D D D L
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
W L D W D
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W W D W D
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L D D D L
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
W D D W W
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L D D L L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W L D L L
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
W L L W L
16
Cerro Home
15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
W W L L W