07.09.2026 21:30
Estadio General Pablo Rojas
Referee: J. Benitez
Cerro Porteno
Match Timeline
Nacional Asuncion
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
59'
Orlando Gaona Lugo ↔ Josué Colmán
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
59'
Richard·Prieto ↔ Hugo Valdez
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
61'
Guillermo Benitez ↔ Blás Riveros
Cerro Porteno
🔄
61'
Pablo Gamarra ↔ Cesar Bobadilla
Cerro Porteno
🔄
76'
Iván Ramírez ↔ A. Cañete
Cerro Porteno
🔄
76'
Gustavo Velázquez ↔ Derlis Osmar Rodríguez Maciel
Cerro Porteno
🔄
79'
Fabrizio Jara ↔ Ignacio Bailone
Nacional Asuncion
87'
Pablo Vegetti
Cerro Porteno
🔄
89'
Leandro Meza ↔ Alejandro Samudio
Nacional Asuncion
🟨
89'
Gustavo Adolfo Costas Makeira
Cerro Porteno
🔄
90'
Ignacio Aliseda ↔ Gastón Giménez
Cerro Porteno

Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 46.3%
Odds 3.66
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 2.55
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
46.3%
3.66
BTTS Yes
58.8%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
2.55
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
1.16
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Cerro Porteno Win 37.5%
Draw 16.2%
Nacional Asuncion Win 46.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerro Porteno1.14
Nacional Asuncion1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno
WWDLW
48 GF / 32 GA
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion
WLDWL
45 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
1.5
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
0.9
15
BTTS Yes
18
12
Over 2.5
13
4.43
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 37 matches
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 30 matches
Cerro Porteno Statistic Nacional Asuncion
18 Wins 14
8 Draws 12
11 Losses 4
48 Goals For 45
32 Goals Against 27
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 0.9
15 BTTS Yes 18
25 Over 1.5 24
12 Over 2.5 13
5 Over 3.5 4
16 Clean Sheets 11
9 Failed To Score 4
4.43 Shots On Goal 4
12.22 Total Shots 11.63
4.43 Corners 4.5
52.6% Ball Possession 49.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Nacional Asuncion's more proactive style and Cerro Porteno's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Nacional Asuncion. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Nacional Asuncion carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 12 points while Cerro Porteno sit 9 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerro Porteno expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Nacional Asuncion in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nacional Asuncion having the stronger overall control.

Cerro Porteno Analysis

Cerro Porteno sit 9 with 7 points after 7 league matches. The record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 8:8 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Jorge Morel (2 goals), Pablo Vegetti (1 goals), Iván Ramírez (1 goals), with creative support from Cecilio Domínguez (1 assists), Cesar Bobadilla (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nacional Asuncion Analysis

Placed 3 with 12 points from 7 outings, Nacional Asuncion continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 11:5 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Hugo Adrián Benítez (3 goals), Josué Colmán (1 goals), Roque Santa Cruz (1 goals), with creative support from Orlando Gaona Lugo (3 assists), Thomas Gutiérrez (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cerro Porteno won 7 times, Nacional Asuncion won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:13 from Cerro Porteno's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.8%)
Predicted formations: Cerro Porteno 5-3-2 / Nacional Asuncion 4-4-2
H2H summary: Cerro Porteno wins 7, draws 6, Nacional Asuncion wins 2

Standings

Primera Division: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 2 2 19:12 7 23
D W W L D
2 11 7 1 3 20:9 11 22
W W W D W
3 11 6 3 2 18:6 12 21
W W L W W
4 11 6 3 2 12:11 1 21
L L W D W
5 11 5 2 4 18:10 8 17
L W L W L
6 11 4 5 2 12:9 3 17
W D W D D
7 11 4 5 2 13:12 1 17
D W W L D
8 11 5 2 4 14:10 4 17
W D W W D
9 11 4 1 6 12:20 -8 13
W L L D W
10 11 2 2 7 11:21 -10 8
L L L W L
11 11 2 1 8 13:24 -11 7
L L L L L
12 11 0 1 10 3:21 -18 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)