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12.11.2026 23:00
Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla

Cerro Largo vs Progreso Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
75.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
69.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cerro Largo Win 46.4%
Draw 29.5%
Progreso Win 24.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerro Largo1.12
Progreso1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
L W D L L
5 GF / 7 GA
Progreso Progreso
L W W D L
6 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
0.89
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
15
BTTS Yes
15
11
Over 2.5
14
1.57
Shots on Goal
2.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 35 matches
Progreso Progreso 35 matches
Cerro Largo Statistic Progreso
9 Wins 10
10 Draws 5
16 Losses 20
33 Goals For 31
41 Goals Against 49
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 0.89
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
15 BTTS Yes 15
24 Over 1.5 23
11 Over 2.5 14
5 Over 3.5 5
9 Clean Sheets 6
13 Failed To Score 14
1.57 Shots On Goal 2.57
4.71 Total Shots 5.43
2.71 Corners 2.71
38.4% Ball Possession 32.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerro Largo expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Progreso in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Progreso having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Progreso. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Cerro Largo have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Cerro Largo Analysis

Cerro Largo sit 12 with 37 points after 35 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 10 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 33:41 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Progreso Analysis

With 35 points from 35 games and a place of 15, Progreso still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 5 draws, and 20 defeats, and the 31:49 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (75.9%)
Predicted formations: Cerro Largo 4-3-3 / Progreso 4-2-3-1

Standings

Primera: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D W D W
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
W W L D W
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
W W W W W
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D L D L
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
W L W L D
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W D W D L
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
W L L W L
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D W D W
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
L W D L W
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W L W L L
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L L W D D
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
L W L L D
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L W L W L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W W D D W
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
L L L W L
16 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
L L L D D
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)