URUGUAY SEGUNDA DIVISIóN
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.9%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.9%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 1-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cerrito Win 66.9%
Draw 8%
Fenix Win 25.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerrito1.23
Fenix1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerrito Cerrito
WWDLW
23 GF / 21 GA
Fenix Fenix
WLDWL
29 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.61
1.24
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
9
BTTS Yes
12
7
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerrito Cerrito 17 matches
Fenix Fenix 18 matches
Cerrito Statistic Fenix
7 Wins 8
7 Draws 6
3 Losses 4
23 Goals For 29
21 Goals Against 19
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.61
1.24 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
9 BTTS Yes 12
11 Over 1.5 13
7 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Fenix. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Fenix having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Cerrito Analysis

Cerrito come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 19 points from 11 matches. The record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 15:13 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Fenix Analysis

So far, Fenix have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 13 points from 10 matches. The record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 14:12 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Cerrito won 1 times, Fenix won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:19 from Cerrito's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92%)
H2H summary: Cerrito wins 1, draws 2, Fenix wins 5
Last matches: Cerrito
18.07.26
Seg
Cerrito
Rentistas
0
0
D
12.07.26
Seg
Cerrito
Miramar
1
0
W
05.07.26
Seg
Cerrito
Tacuarembo
0
0
D
28.06.26
Seg
Cerrito
Plaza Colonia
1
0
W
21.06.26
Seg
Cerrito
La Luz
0
2
L
14.06.26
Seg
Cerrito
CA River Plate
4
6
L
07.06.26
Seg
Cerrito
Atenas
2
1
W
30.05.26
Seg
Cerrito
Paysandu
1
0
W
24.05.26
Seg
Cerrito
Sportivo Huracan
2
0
W
16.05.26
Seg
Cerrito
Uruguay Montevideo
2
2
D
10.05.26
Seg
Cerrito
Oriental
2
2
D
25.04.26
Seg
Cerrito
Sportivo Huracan
1
1
D
18.04.26
Seg
Cerrito
La Luz
0
0
D
12.04.26
Seg
Cerrito
Fenix
1
4
L
06.04.26
Seg
Cerrito
Uruguay Montevideo
2
1
W
29.03.26
Seg
Cerrito
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
21.03.26
Seg
Cerrito
Atenas
3
1
W
26.10.25
Seg
Cerrito
Colón
0
1
L
19.10.25
Seg
Cerrito
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
12.10.25
Seg
Cerrito
Oriental
2
3
L
Last matches: Fenix
26.07.26
Seg
Fenix
Atenas
1
0
W
13.07.26
Seg
Fenix
Paysandu
0
1
L
05.07.26
Seg
Fenix
Sportivo Huracan
2
0
W
27.06.26
Seg
Fenix
Uruguay Montevideo
2
3
L
20.06.26
Seg
Fenix
Oriental
2
2
D
13.06.26
Seg
Fenix
Colón
1
1
D
06.06.26
Seg
Fenix
CA River Plate
3
1
W
31.05.26
Seg
Fenix
Rentistas
1
1
D
25.05.26
Seg
Fenix
Miramar
1
1
D
17.05.26
Seg
Fenix
Tacuarembo
1
2
L
09.05.26
Seg
Fenix
Plaza Colonia
1
0
W
02.05.26
Seg
Fenix
Oriental
1
0
W
27.04.26
Seg
Fenix
Atenas
4
1
W
19.04.26
Seg
Fenix
Sportivo Huracan
1
2
L
12.04.26
Seg
Fenix
Cerrito
4
1
W
05.04.26
Seg
Fenix
Tacuarembo
3
2
W
22.03.26
Seg
Fenix
La Luz
0
0
D
15.03.26
Seg
Fenix
Uruguay Montevideo
1
1
D
26.10.25
Seg
Fenix
Atenas
1
2
L
18.10.25
Seg
Fenix
Central Espanol
1
2
L
H2H: Cerrito vs Fenix
12.04.26
H2H
Fenix
Cerrito
4
1
L
22.09.25
H2H
Cerrito
Fenix
2
2
D
29.06.25
H2H
Fenix
Cerrito
3
2
L
15.09.22
H2H
Cerrito
Fenix
0
2
L
10.04.22
H2H
Fenix
Cerrito
2
0
L
17.10.21
H2H
Cerrito
Fenix
2
4
L
18.06.21
H2H
Fenix
Cerrito
1
3
W
12.05.12
H2H
Cerrito
Fenix
1
1
D
Last matches: Cerrito
12.07.26
Seg
Cerrito
Miramar
1
0
W
28.06.26
Seg
Cerrito
Plaza Colonia
1
0
W
07.06.26
Seg
Cerrito
Atenas
2
1
W
24.05.26
Seg
Cerrito
Sportivo Huracan
2
0
W
18.04.26
Seg
Cerrito
La Luz
0
0
D
06.04.26
Seg
Cerrito
Uruguay Montevideo
2
1
W
21.03.26
Seg
Cerrito
Atenas
3
1
W
19.10.25
Seg
Cerrito
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
12.10.25
Seg
Cerrito
Oriental
2
3
L
05.10.25
Seg
Cerrito
Uruguay Montevideo
2
1
W
22.09.25
Seg
Cerrito
Fenix
2
2
D
06.09.25
Seg
Cerrito
Atenas
0
3
L
31.08.25
Seg
Cerrito
Central Espanol
0
1
L
24.08.25
Seg
Cerrito
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
16.08.25
Seg
Cerrito
La Luz
1
0
W
02.08.25
Seg
Cerrito
Colón
1
2
L
05.07.25
Seg
Cerrito
Albion FC
1
0
W
21.06.25
Seg
Cerrito
Rampla Juniors
1
0
W
31.05.25
Seg
Cerrito
Rentistas
1
2
L
17.05.25
Seg
Cerrito
Artigas
0
2
L
H2H at home: Cerrito
22.09.25
H2H
Cerrito
Fenix
2
2
D
15.09.22
H2H
Cerrito
Fenix
0
2
L
17.10.21
H2H
Cerrito
Fenix
2
4
L
12.05.12
H2H
Cerrito
Fenix
1
1
D
Last matches: Fenix
13.07.26
Seg
Fenix
Paysandu
0
1
L
27.06.26
Seg
Fenix
Uruguay Montevideo
2
3
L
13.06.26
Seg
Fenix
Colón
1
1
D
25.05.26
Seg
Fenix
Miramar
1
1
D
09.05.26
Seg
Fenix
Plaza Colonia
1
0
W
27.04.26
Seg
Fenix
Atenas
4
1
W
19.04.26
Seg
Fenix
Sportivo Huracan
1
2
L
15.03.26
Seg
Fenix
Uruguay Montevideo
1
1
D
18.10.25
Seg
Fenix
Central Espanol
1
2
L
03.10.25
Seg
Fenix
Rentistas
0
0
D
22.09.25
Seg
Fenix
Cerrito
2
2
D
07.09.25
Seg
Fenix
Deportivo Maldonado
2
0
W
24.08.25
Seg
Fenix
Uruguay Montevideo
1
0
W
10.08.25
Seg
Fenix
Rampla Juniors
1
0
W
03.08.25
Seg
Fenix
Atenas
0
1
L
20.07.25
Seg
Fenix
Tacuarembo
0
0
D
06.07.25
Seg
Fenix
La Luz
2
2
D
22.06.25
Seg
Fenix
Colón
3
1
W
07.06.25
Seg
Fenix
Oriental
0
2
L
31.05.25
Seg
Fenix
Albion FC
0
2
L
H2H away: Fenix
22.09.25
H2H
Cerrito
Fenix
2
2
D
15.09.22
H2H
Cerrito
Fenix
0
2
W
17.10.21
H2H
Cerrito
Fenix
2
4
W
12.05.12
H2H
Cerrito
Fenix
1
1
D

Standings

1st Phase
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 1 1 8:5 3 13
L W W W D
2 6 3 3 0 9:2 7 12
W D D W W
3
Fenix Away
6 3 2 1 13:7 6 11
W L W W D
4 6 2 4 0 9:6 3 10
D W W D D
5 6 2 3 1 8:5 3 9
D W D L D
6 6 2 3 1 7:5 2 9
D W L W D
7 6 2 3 1 6:5 1 9
D L W W D
8 6 2 3 1 8:8 0 9
D D L W D
9 6 1 4 1 5:6 -1 7
D L W D D
10 6 1 2 3 3:7 -4 5
D D L W L
11 6 1 1 4 4:7 -3 4
L D L L W
12 6 1 1 4 5:11 -6 4
L W L L L
13 6 1 1 4 6:13 -7 4
W L L L D
14 6 0 3 3 5:9 -4 3
D L L L D