BELGIUM JUPILER PRO LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Jan Breydel Stadion
Referee: M. Allaerts
Cercle Brugge
Match Timeline
Dender
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Alireza Jahanbakhsh
Dender
29'
O. Diakite · Assist: E. Diop
Cercle Brugge
🔄
46'
H. van der Bruggen ↔ P. Gerkens
Cercle Brugge
🔄
46'
B. De Kerf ↔ L. De Fougerolles
Dender
🟨
54'
Luc Marijnissen
Dender
🔄
62'
S. Ngoura ↔ D. Vanzeir
Cercle Brugge
🔄
62'
D. Toshevski ↔ B. Nsimba
Dender
🔄
62'
D. Acquah ↔ M. Berte
Dender
69'
O. Diakite · Assist: I. Diakite
Cercle Brugge
🔄
72'
A. Jahanbakhsh ↔ N. Moutha-Sebtaoui
Dender
🔄
73'
O. Diakite ↔ O. Adewumi
Cercle Brugge
🔄
73'
I. Diaby ↔ L. Agyekum
Cercle Brugge
🔄
73'
R. Oratmangoen ↔ K. Koton
Dender
🔄
81'
I. Diakite ↔ H. Jurado
Cercle Brugge
84'
M. Viltard
Dender

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 79%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 72.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 67.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
79%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
72.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
67.8%
-
Probability Distribution
Cercle Brugge Win 47.5%
Draw 31.5%
Dender Win 21%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cercle Brugge1.56
Dender1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge
WWDLW
48 GF / 50 GA
Dender Dender
WLDWL
27 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
0.82
1.52
Average Goals Conceded
1.73
21
BTTS Yes
19
18
Over 2.5
17
4.85
Shots on Goal
3.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 33 matches
Dender Dender 33 matches
Cercle Brugge Statistic Dender
9 Wins 4
11 Draws 10
13 Losses 19
48 Goals For 27
50 Goals Against 57
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
1.52 Avg Goals Conceded 1.73
21 BTTS Yes 19
29 Over 1.5 23
18 Over 2.5 17
11 Over 3.5 10
8 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 12
4.85 Shots On Goal 3.82
14.42 Total Shots 10.82
5 Corners 3.67
47.3% Ball Possession 47.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Dender. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cercle Brugge expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Dender in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Dender having the stronger overall control. Dender arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Cercle Brugge Analysis

Cercle Brugge approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 31 points from 30 matches. Their record of 7 wins, 10 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 39:47, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through E. Diop (7 goals), S. Ngoura (7 goals), P. Gerkens (6 goals), with creative support from Gary Magnee (7 assists), Flávio Nazinho (7 assists), S. Ngoura (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Dender Analysis

Dender sit 16 with 19 points after 30 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 10 draws, and 17 defeats with a 24:51 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Bruny Nsimba (8 goals), Aurélien Scheidler (7 goals), R. Kvet (5 goals), with creative support from Bruny Nsimba (4 assists), M. Sambu (4 assists), F. Ferraro (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Cercle Brugge won 4 times, Dender won 0 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:2 from Cercle Brugge's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (79%)
Predicted formations: Cercle Brugge 3-5-2 / Dender 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cercle Brugge wins 4, draws 4, Dender wins 0
Stats
Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge
Dender Dender
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
5
7 Corner Kicks 6
9 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 6
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Goal 3
2 Shots off Goal 5
2 Blocked Shots 5
6 Shots insidebox 9
3 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
445 Total passes 396
358 Passes accurate 300
0.71 expected_goals 0.56
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Cercle Brugge
Formation
Dender
Warleson
Warleson
E. Kakou
E. Kakou
G. Kondo
G. Kondo
K. Valy
K. Valy
I. Diakite
🎯
I. Diakite
I. Diaby
I. Diaby
H. van der Bruggen
H. van der Bruggen
E. Diop
🎯
E. Diop
Nazinho
Nazinho
O. Diakite
⚽ 2
O. Diakite
S. Ngoura
S. Ngoura
G. Dietsch
G. Dietsch
M. Sambu
M. Sambu
L. Marijnissen
L. Marijnissen
B. De Kerf
B. De Kerf
B. Goncalves
B. Goncalves
N. Rodes
N. Rodes
M. Viltard
M. Viltard
A. Jahanbakhsh
A. Jahanbakhsh
D. Acquah
D. Acquah
R. Oratmangoen
R. Oratmangoen
D. Toshevski
D. Toshevski
Cercle Brugge 3-5-2
Starting XI
1
Warleson
G
5
E. Kakou
D
24
G. Kondo
D
12
K. Valy
D
2
I. Diakite
🎯 69' ↓ 81'
M
19
I. Diaby
↓ 73'
M
28
H. van der Bruggen
↓ 46'
M
37
E. Diop
🎯 29'
M
20
Nazinho
M
10
O. Diakite
⚽ 29' ⚽ 69' ↓ 73'
F
9
S. Ngoura
↓ 62'
F
Substitutes
21
M. Delanghe
G
18
P. Gerkens
↑ 46'
M
27
N. De Wilde
D
23
H. Jurado
↑ 81'
M
17
O. Adewumi
↑ 73'
F
75
S. Gheerardyns
D
33
R. Caicedo
D
13
D. Vanzeir
↑ 62'
F
6
L. Agyekum
↑ 73'
M
Dender 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
30
G. Dietsch
G
70
M. Sambu
D
5
L. Marijnissen
🟨 54'
D
6
B. De Kerf
↓ 46'
7
B. Goncalves
D
18
N. Rodes
M
24
M. Viltard
⚽ 84'
M
27
A. Jahanbakhsh
↓ 72' 🟨 18'
M
23
D. Acquah
↓ 62'
M
11
R. Oratmangoen
↓ 73'
M
9
D. Toshevski
↓ 62'
F
Substitutes
1
L. Fortin
G
44
L. De Fougerolles
↑ 46'
D
67
N. Moutha-Sebtaoui
↑ 72'
D
19
J. A. Kadiri
F
77
B. Nsimba
↑ 62'
F
90
M. Berte
↑ 62'
F
15
K. Koton
↑ 73'
M
46
E. Lembi
D
60
O. Balde
M
Last matches: Cercle Brugge
09.05.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
RAAL La Louvière
1
4
L
01.05.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Zulte Waregem
2
3
L
19.04.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Dender
4
1
W
11.04.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
RAAL La Louvière
3
0
W
04.04.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Zulte Waregem
2
2
D
22.03.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Anderlecht
3
2
W
15.03.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
RAAL La Louvière
1
3
L
08.03.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
St. Truiden
1
2
L
01.03.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Dender
0
0
D
20.02.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Gent
1
0
W
15.02.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Club Brugge KV
1
2
L
07.02.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Charleroi
4
3
W
31.01.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Antwerp
0
4
L
25.01.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Genk
1
1
D
17.01.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
KVC Westerlo
2
0
W
26.12.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Union St. Gilloise
1
1
D
21.12.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
OH Leuven
2
0
W
13.12.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
KV Mechelen
2
3
L
06.12.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Standard Liege
1
2
L
29.11.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Zulte Waregem
1
1
D
Last matches: Dender
23.05.26
Jup
Dender
Lommel United
0
0
D
17.05.26
Jup
Dender
Lommel United
2
3
L
09.05.26
Jup
Dender
Zulte Waregem
1
2
L
03.05.26
Jup
Dender
RAAL La Louvière
2
1
W
19.04.26
Jup
Dender
Cercle Brugge
1
4
L
12.04.26
Jup
Dender
Zulte Waregem
1
2
L
06.04.26
Jup
Dender
RAAL La Louvière
1
0
W
22.03.26
Jup
Dender
Gent
1
3
L
14.03.26
Jup
Dender
Union St. Gilloise
0
2
L
07.03.26
Jup
Dender
Charleroi
2
2
D
01.03.26
Jup
Dender
Cercle Brugge
0
0
D
21.02.26
Jup
Dender
St. Truiden
1
4
L
14.02.26
Jup
Dender
OH Leuven
2
3
L
07.02.26
Jup
Dender
Zulte Waregem
0
1
L
01.02.26
Jup
Dender
Genk
1
2
L
25.01.26
Jup
Dender
Anderlecht
0
0
D
18.01.26
Jup
Dender
Antwerp
1
0
W
27.12.25
Jup
Dender
KV Mechelen
1
1
D
20.12.25
Jup
Dender
Standard Liege
0
1
L
14.12.25
Jup
Dender
Club Brugge KV
1
5
L
H2H: Cercle Brugge vs Dender
24.04.26
H2H
Cercle Brugge
Dender
2
1
W
19.04.26
H2H
Dender
Cercle Brugge
1
4
W
01.03.26
H2H
Cercle Brugge
Dender
0
0
D
26.07.25
H2H
Dender
Cercle Brugge
0
0
D
18.01.25
H2H
Dender
Cercle Brugge
0
1
W
19.10.24
H2H
Cercle Brugge
Dender
0
0
D
14.07.23
H2H
Cercle Brugge
Dender
0
0
D
16.07.22
H2H
Dender
Cercle Brugge
0
5
W
Last matches: Cercle Brugge
01.05.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Zulte Waregem
2
3
L
11.04.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
RAAL La Louvière
3
0
W
15.03.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
RAAL La Louvière
1
3
L
01.03.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Dender
0
0
D
15.02.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Club Brugge KV
1
2
L
31.01.26
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Antwerp
0
4
L
26.12.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Union St. Gilloise
1
1
D
13.12.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
KV Mechelen
2
3
L
06.12.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Standard Liege
1
2
L
08.11.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
OH Leuven
1
2
L
26.10.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Zulte Waregem
1
1
D
19.10.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Genk
2
2
D
28.09.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Gent
2
4
L
14.09.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Charleroi
2
3
L
29.08.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
St. Truiden
1
1
D
17.08.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
KVC Westerlo
4
1
W
03.08.25
Jup
Cercle Brugge
Anderlecht
0
2
L
H2H at home: Cercle Brugge
24.04.26
H2H
Cercle Brugge
Dender
2
1
W
01.03.26
H2H
Cercle Brugge
Dender
0
0
D
19.10.24
H2H
Cercle Brugge
Dender
0
0
D
14.07.23
H2H
Cercle Brugge
Dender
0
0
D
Last matches: Dender
17.05.26
Jup
Dender
Lommel United
2
3
L
09.05.26
Jup
Dender
Zulte Waregem
1
2
L
06.04.26
Jup
Dender
RAAL La Louvière
1
0
W
14.03.26
Jup
Dender
Union St. Gilloise
0
2
L
01.03.26
Jup
Dender
Cercle Brugge
0
0
D
14.02.26
Jup
Dender
OH Leuven
2
3
L
07.02.26
Jup
Dender
Zulte Waregem
0
1
L
25.01.26
Jup
Dender
Anderlecht
0
0
D
27.12.25
Jup
Dender
KV Mechelen
1
1
D
05.12.25
Jup
Dender
RAAL La Louvière
2
1
W
23.11.25
Jup
Dender
Antwerp
2
1
W
01.11.25
Jup
Dender
Club Brugge KV
1
2
L
25.10.25
Jup
Dender
KVC Westerlo
1
1
D
05.10.25
Jup
Dender
Genk
1
2
L
19.09.25
Jup
Dender
Gent
0
3
L
30.08.25
Jup
Dender
Charleroi
1
3
L
08.08.25
Jup
Dender
St. Truiden
0
2
L
02.08.25
Jup
Dender
Standard Liege
1
1
D
H2H away: Dender
24.04.26
H2H
Cercle Brugge
Dender
2
1
L
01.03.26
H2H
Cercle Brugge
Dender
0
0
D
19.10.24
H2H
Cercle Brugge
Dender
0
0
D
14.07.23
H2H
Cercle Brugge
Dender
0
0
D

Standings

Pro League , Relegation Round
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 36 13 9 14 53:53 0 48
W W W W W
2 36 10 11 15 53:58 -5 41
L L W W W
3 36 7 13 16 35:50 -15 34
W L L L L
4 36 5 10 21 31:62 -31 25
D L L W L
Relegation Playoffs