URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
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Parque Palermo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.8%
Odds 2.53
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 34.5%
Odds 2.58
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.8%
2.53
BTTS Yes
54.1%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
34.5%
2.58
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
2.60
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Central Espanol Win 71.8%
Draw 10.1%
Progreso Win 18.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Central Espanol1.36
Progreso0.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Central Espanol Central Espanol
WWDLW
27 GF / 26 GA
Progreso Progreso
WLDWL
18 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
0.82
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
11
BTTS Yes
10
11
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Central Espanol Central Espanol 22 matches
Progreso Progreso 22 matches
Central Espanol Statistic Progreso
9 Wins 4
6 Draws 4
7 Losses 14
27 Goals For 18
26 Goals Against 34
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
11 BTTS Yes 10
13 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 10
5 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Central Espanol's more proactive style and Progreso's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Progreso. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Progreso arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Progreso having the stronger overall control. Central Espanol arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 33 points compared to Progreso in 16 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Central Espanol Analysis

So far, Central Espanol have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 33 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, while the 27:26 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Progreso Analysis

With 16 points from 22 games and a place of 16, Progreso still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 18:34 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Central Espanol won 8 times, Progreso won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:14 from Central Espanol's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.9%)
Predicted formations: Central Espanol - / Progreso 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Central Espanol wins 8, draws 2, Progreso wins 5
Last matches: Central Espanol
02.08.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
25.07.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
12.07.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Boston River
0
0
D
06.06.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
01.06.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Penarol
1
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro
0
1
L
17.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
09.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Racing Montevideo
2
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Boston River
1
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro
3
1
W
17.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Albion FC
1
6
L
12.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Danubio
2
2
D
03.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Club Nacional
1
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Deportivo Maldonado
2
1
W
24.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
21.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
1
3
L
08.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Wanderers
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Juventud
1
0
W
Last matches: Progreso
02.08.26
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
1
2
L
18.07.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
1
0
W
11.07.26
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
0
2
L
07.06.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
1
2
L
30.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
1
W
23.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
2
1
W
12.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Penarol
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
26.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Boston River
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
0
1
L
H2H: Central Espanol vs Progreso
07.02.26
H2H
Progreso
Central Espanol
0
3
W
25.09.22
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
1
1
D
25.06.22
H2H
Progreso
Central Espanol
1
1
D
09.12.17
H2H
Progreso
Central Espanol
2
0
L
06.12.17
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
1
0
W
22.11.17
H2H
Progreso
Central Espanol
2
0
L
05.07.17
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
1
0
W
17.09.16
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
2
0
W
14.05.16
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
1
2
L
25.04.15
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
2
1
W
22.11.14
H2H
Progreso
Central Espanol
0
1
W
29.03.14
H2H
Progreso
Central Espanol
1
2
W
19.10.13
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
0
3
L
27.04.13
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
1
0
W
04.11.12
H2H
Progreso
Central Espanol
1
0
L
Last matches: Central Espanol
02.08.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
25.07.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
06.06.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
09.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Racing Montevideo
2
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro
3
1
W
12.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Danubio
2
2
D
31.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Deportivo Maldonado
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
1
3
L
28.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Wanderers
0
1
L
15.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Penarol
2
1
W
18.10.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Fenix
2
1
W
06.10.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Atenas
0
1
L
13.09.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Rentistas
1
0
W
19.08.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
11.08.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Uruguay Montevideo
1
0
W
03.08.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Albion FC
1
1
D
20.07.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Rampla Juniors
4
1
W
05.07.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Artigas
0
0
D
27.06.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
H2H at home: Central Espanol
25.09.22
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
1
1
D
06.12.17
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
1
0
W
05.07.17
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
1
0
W
17.09.16
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
2
0
W
14.05.16
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
1
2
L
25.04.15
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
2
1
W
19.10.13
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
0
3
L
27.04.13
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
1
0
W
Last matches: Progreso
02.08.26
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
1
2
L
11.07.26
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
0
2
L
30.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
27.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
1
L
26.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
09.11.25
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
1
1
D
26.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
1
3
L
10.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Plaza Colonia
1
0
W
29.09.25
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
14.09.25
Pri
Progreso
CA River Plate
0
0
D
31.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Boston River
1
2
L
16.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
1
3
L
01.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Penarol
1
2
L
03.12.23
Seg
Progreso
Uruguay Montevideo
3
1
W
H2H away: Progreso
25.09.22
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
1
1
D
06.12.17
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
1
0
L
05.07.17
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
1
0
L
17.09.16
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
2
0
L
14.05.16
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
1
2
W
25.04.15
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
2
1
L
19.10.13
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
0
3
W
27.04.13
H2H
Central Espanol
Progreso
1
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.09
Draw 2.99
Home 2.53
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.93
Draw 1.98
Home 3.33
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.11
Over 1.5 1.50
Over 1.75 1.64
Over 2.0 1.90
Over 2.25 2.24
Over 2.5 2.58
Over 3.5 5.06
Under 0.5 6.68
Under 1.5 2.61
Under 1.75 2.27
Under 2.0 1.92
Under 2.25 1.65
Under 2.5 1.51
Under 3.5 1.17
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.80
Draw 3.25
Home 2.35
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 1.95
Home 3.25
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 2.20
Home 2.75
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.5 1.50
Over 2.5 2.50
Over 3.5 5.00
Over 4.5 11.00
Over 5.5 26.00
Over 6.5 51.00
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 1.5 2.50
Under 2.5 1.50
Under 3.5 1.17
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.94
Draw 2.97
Home 2.37
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.89
Draw 1.88
Home 3.16
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.46
Draw 2.17
Home 2.81
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 0.75 1.06
Over 1.0 1.08
Over 1.25 1.27
Over 1.5 1.43
Over 1.75 1.58
Over 2.0 1.78
Over 2.25 2.13
Over 2.5 2.44
Over 2.75 2.91
Over 3.0 3.90
Over 3.25 4.36
Over 3.5 4.75
Over 3.75 6.25
Over 4.0 8.10
Over 4.5 10.50
Over 5.5 29.00
Over 6.5 50.00
Under 0.5 7.10
Under 0.75 6.35
Under 1.0 5.55
Under 1.25 3.22
Under 1.5 2.46
Under 1.75 2.18
Under 2.0 1.84
Under 2.25 1.64
Under 2.5 1.49
Under 2.75 1.34
Under 3.0 1.18
Under 3.25 1.15
Under 3.5 1.12
Under 3.75 1.06
Under 4.0 1.04
Under 4.5 1.02
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 3.00
Home 2.32
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.80
Draw 2.02
Home 3.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.35
Draw 2.28
Home 2.70
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.0 1.11
Over 1.25 1.27
Over 1.5 1.42
Over 1.75 1.54
Over 2.0 1.74
Over 2.25 2.05
Over 2.5 2.33
Over 2.75 2.75
Over 3.0 3.60
Over 3.25 3.95
Over 3.5 4.30
Over 3.75 5.30
Over 4.0 7.50
Under 0.5 6.25
Under 1.0 5.20
Under 1.25 3.30
Under 1.5 2.55
Under 1.75 2.25
Under 2.0 1.93
Under 2.25 1.66
Under 2.5 1.50
Under 2.75 1.37
Under 3.0 1.23
Under 3.25 1.19
Under 3.5 1.17
Under 3.75 1.11
Under 4.0 1.05

Standings

Primera: Promedios
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 59 37 10 12 101:53 48 121
W W D W L
2 59 35 12 12 110:62 48 114
W L D W L
3 22 12 5 5 36:22 14 41
D L D W W
4 59 25 19 15 76:60 16 94
D W L D W
5 59 25 19 15 66:55 11 94
W L D D D
6 22 9 7 6 32:24 8 34
D L D W L
7 22 9 6 7 27:26 1 33
D L D D W
8 59 24 16 19 61:58 3 88
W L D D D
9 59 23 15 21 87:78 9 84
L W W L W
10 59 24 12 23 70:72 -2 84
D W L D L
11 59 20 17 22 69:69 0 77
L L D D L
12 59 20 17 22 64:65 -1 77
L W D D W
13 59 16 18 25 53:72 -19 66
W W W D W
14 59 14 23 22 63:71 -8 65
D L D D D
15 59 17 15 27 47:76 -29 65
L W W L L
16 59 14 13 32 56:94 -38 55
L W L L W
Relegation - Segunda Division