08.08.2026 14:00
Parque Palermo
Referee: J. Burgos
Central Espanol
Match Timeline
Progreso
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
J. Silva ↔ N. Acosta
Progreso
58'
I. Mendez
Central Espanol
🔄
66'
E. Alvarez ↔ G. Trasante
Progreso
🔄
66'
F. De Leon ↔ M. Saravia
Progreso
🔄
66'
H. Carroso ↔ M. Copelotti
Progreso
🟨
73'
M. Aguilera
Central Espanol
🔄
75'
M. Aguilera ↔ L. Pino
Central Espanol
🔄
75'
F. Munoz ↔ F. Sosa
Central Espanol
🟥
78'
G. Silva
Progreso
🔄
83'
R. Tarragona ↔ M. Urrutia
Central Espanol
🔄
83'
L. Fernandez ↔ F. Camarda
Central Espanol
🟨
90'
F. Camarda
Central Espanol
🔄
90+5'
J. Dellarossa ↔ S. Sequeira
Central Espanol

Central Espanol vs Progreso Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 34.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.8%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
34.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Central Espanol Win 71.8%
Draw 10.1%
Progreso Win 18.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Central Espanol1.36
Progreso0.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Central Espanol Central Espanol
WWDLW
27 GF / 26 GA
Progreso Progreso
WLDWL
18 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
0.82
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
11
BTTS Yes
10
11
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Central Espanol Central Espanol 22 matches
Progreso Progreso 22 matches
Central Espanol Statistic Progreso
9 Wins 4
6 Draws 4
7 Losses 14
27 Goals For 18
26 Goals Against 34
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
11 BTTS Yes 10
13 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 10
5 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Central Espanol's more proactive style and Progreso's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Progreso. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Progreso arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Progreso having the stronger overall control. Central Espanol arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 33 points compared to Progreso in 16 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Central Espanol Analysis

So far, Central Espanol have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 33 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, while the 27:26 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Progreso Analysis

With 16 points from 22 games and a place of 16, Progreso still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 18:34 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Central Espanol won 9 times, Progreso won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:13 from Central Espanol's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.9%)
Predicted formations: Central Espanol - / Progreso 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Central Espanol wins 9, draws 2, Progreso wins 4

Standings

Primera: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 5 5 0 0 14:4 10 15
W W W W W
2 7 4 2 1 12:4 8 14
D L W D W
3 7 4 1 2 9:9 0 13
L W W D L
4 6 4 1 1 11:4 7 12
W W W L D
5 7 3 3 1 10:6 4 12
W D D W W
6 7 3 3 1 8:5 3 12
D W L W D
7 7 3 2 2 8:5 3 11
W L W L D
8 7 3 2 2 9:9 0 11
W D D W W
9 7 2 3 2 8:10 -2 9
D D L W L
10 7 3 0 4 5:8 -3 9
W L W W L
11 7 2 2 3 9:10 -1 8
L L L D W
12 7 0 5 2 5:8 -3 5
L D L D D
13 6 1 2 3 3:7 -4 5
D D L L L
14 7 1 2 4 6:13 -7 5
L W D L D
15 7 0 4 3 2:8 -6 4
D D L L D
16 7 0 0 7 5:14 -9 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)