ITALY SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Referee: M. Marchetti
Catanzaro
Match Timeline
Monza
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
31'
L. Ravanelli ↔ F. Delli Carri
Monza
🟨
45+2'
Leonardo Colombo
Monza
🔄
46'
A. Colpani ↔ Hernani
Monza
🔄
64'
D. Mota ↔ A. Petagna
Monza
🔄
73'
P. Cutrone ↔ G. Caso
Monza
🔄
73'
L. Colombo ↔ P. Obiang
Monza
🔄
76'
G. Alesi ↔ F. Di Francesco
Catanzaro
🔄
76'
S. Pontisso ↔ F. Rispoli
Catanzaro
77'
Hernani · Assist: P. Obiang
Monza
🟨
83'
Andrea Petagna
Monza
🔄
84'
M. Liberali ↔ M. D'Alessandro
Catanzaro
🔄
84'
P. Iemmello ↔ R. Oudin
Catanzaro
89'
G. Caso · Assist: A. Petagna
Monza
🟨
90+6'
Jacopo Petriccione
Catanzaro
🟨
90+4'
Marco D'Alessandro
Catanzaro
🟨
90'
Giuseppe Caso
Monza

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Catanzaro Win 55.7%
Draw 0%
Monza Win 44.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Catanzaro1.32
Monza1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Catanzaro Catanzaro
WWDLW
68 GF / 54 GA
Monza Monza
WLDWL
65 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.62
Average Goals Scored
1.59
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
26
BTTS Yes
21
23
Over 2.5
20
4.55
Shots on Goal
4.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Catanzaro Catanzaro 42 matches
Monza Monza 41 matches
Catanzaro Statistic Monza
17 Wins 23
14 Draws 11
11 Losses 7
68 Goals For 65
54 Goals Against 36
1.62 Avg Goals Scored 1.59
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
26 BTTS Yes 21
34 Over 1.5 29
23 Over 2.5 20
16 Over 3.5 9
11 Clean Sheets 16
8 Failed To Score 6
4.55 Shots On Goal 4.78
12.83 Total Shots 14.27
4.17 Corners 5.54
53.5% Ball Possession 52.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 1-1, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Monza controlled more possession in the first leg (53% against 47%). Catanzaro were also more accurate in attack, recording 3 shots on target to 2. Monza circulated the ball more often, making 359 passes to 333 and completing 300. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Monza. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Catanzaro Analysis

Catanzaro enter this tie with a season profile built on 59 points from 38 matches, placing them 5 in their league. Their record of 15 wins, 14 draws, and 9 defeats with goals at 62:51 reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on P. Iemmello (13 goals), Filippo Pittarello (12 goals), Alphadjo Cissè (6 goals), with creative support from P. Iemmello (10 assists), Filippo Pittarello (6 assists), S. Pontisso (6 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the return of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Monza Analysis

Monza enter this tie with a season profile built on 76 points from 38 matches, placing them 3 in their league. Their record of 22 wins, 10 draws, and 6 defeats with goals at 61:32 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on A. Petagna (9 goals), P. Cutrone (6 goals), D. Mota (5 goals), with creative support from P. Azzi (6 assists), A. Izzo (4 assists), A. Petagna (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Catanzaro won 1 times, Monza won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:5 from Catanzaro's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Catanzaro 3-4-2-1 / Monza 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Catanzaro wins 1, draws 1, Monza wins 2
Stats
Catanzaro Catanzaro
Monza Monza
Shots on Goal
1
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
1
5 Corner Kicks 8
16 Fouls 16
2 Offsides 1
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Goal 5
7 Shots off Goal 3
3 Blocked Shots 1
7 Shots insidebox 2
4 Shots outsidebox 7
2 Goalkeeper Saves 1
514 Total passes 302
461 Passes accurate 247
0.84 expected_goals 0.67
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Catanzaro
Formation
Monza
M. Pigliacelli
M. Pigliacelli
T. Cassandro
T. Cassandro
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini
N. Brighenti
N. Brighenti
C. Favasuli
C. Favasuli
J. Petriccione
J. Petriccione
S. Pontisso
S. Pontisso
G. Alesi
G. Alesi
M. Liberali
M. Liberali
P. Iemmello
P. Iemmello
F. Pittarello
F. Pittarello
D. Thiam
D. Thiam
S. Birindelli
S. Birindelli
L. Ravanelli
L. Ravanelli
A. Carboni
A. Carboni
A. Bakoune
A. Bakoune
L. Colombo
L. Colombo
M. Pessina
M. Pessina
P. Azzi
P. Azzi
A. Colpani
A. Colpani
D. Mota
D. Mota
P. Cutrone
P. Cutrone
Catanzaro 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
22
M. Pigliacelli
G
84
T. Cassandro
D
4
Matias Antonini
D
23
N. Brighenti
D
27
C. Favasuli
M
10
J. Petriccione
🟨 90+6'
M
20
S. Pontisso
↓ 76'
M
30
G. Alesi
↓ 76'
M
14
M. Liberali
↓ 84'
F
9
P. Iemmello
↓ 84'
F
8
F. Pittarello
F
Substitutes
1
C. Marietta
G
77
M. D'Alessandro
↑ 84' 🟨 90+4'
F
94
F. Di Francesco
↑ 76'
F
28
R. Oudin
↑ 84'
M
21
M. Pompetti
M
62
R. Frosinini
D
5
E. Bashi
D
6
Fellipe Jack
D
39
N. Koffi
F
26
B. Verrengia
D
19
P. Nuamah
F
32
F. Rispoli
↑ 76'
M
Monza 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
20
D. Thiam
G
19
S. Birindelli
D
13
L. Ravanelli
↓ 31'
D
44
A. Carboni
D
24
A. Bakoune
M
21
L. Colombo
↓ 73' 🟨 45+2'
M
32
M. Pessina
M
7
P. Azzi
M
28
A. Colpani
↓ 46'
F
47
D. Mota
↓ 64'
F
10
P. Cutrone
↓ 73'
F
Substitutes
1
S. Pizzignacco
G
37
A. Petagna
🎯 89' ↑ 64' 🟨 83'
F
26
P. Ciurria
F
30
G. Caso
⚽ 89' ↑ 73' 🟨 90'
M
25
A. Alvarez
F
8
Hernani
⚽ 77' ↑ 46'
M
14
P. Obiang
🎯 77' ↑ 73'
M
6
V. Antov
D
2
A. Brorsson
D
15
F. Delli Carri
↑ 31'
D
3
L. Lucchesi
D
27
S. Capolupo
Last matches: Catanzaro
05.08.26
Fri
Catanzaro
Giugliano
3
0
W
29.07.26
Fri
Catanzaro
Paradiso
3
1
W
29.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Monza
2
0
W
20.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
0
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
3
0
W
12.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Avellino
3
0
W
08.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Bari
2
3
L
01.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
2
3
L
25.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Spezia
4
2
W
18.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Juve Stabia
1
1
D
14.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Modena
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Avellino
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Monza
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Cesena
1
3
L
14.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Padova
3
1
W
08.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Empoli
3
2
W
04.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Carrarese
3
3
D
01.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Frosinone
2
2
D
21.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Virtus Entella
3
1
W
14.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Mantova
2
0
W
Last matches: Monza
07.08.26
Fri
Monza
Padova
3
3
D
30.07.26
Fri
Monza
Aris Thessalonikis
1
3
L
24.07.26
Fri
Monza
Galatasaray
2
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Monza
PRO Vercelli
4
3
W
29.05.26
Ser
Monza
Catanzaro
0
2
L
19.05.26
Ser
Monza
Juve Stabia
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Monza
Juve Stabia
2
2
D
08.05.26
Ser
Monza
Empoli
2
2
D
01.05.26
Ser
Monza
Mantova
2
3
L
24.04.26
Ser
Monza
Modena
1
0
W
17.04.26
Ser
Monza
Sampdoria
3
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Monza
Bari
2
0
W
06.04.26
Ser
Monza
Catanzaro
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Monza
Venezia
1
1
D
17.03.26
Ser
Monza
Reggiana
0
0
D
14.03.26
Ser
Monza
Palermo
3
0
W
07.03.26
Ser
Monza
Spezia
2
4
L
03.03.26
Ser
Monza
Cesena
3
1
W
27.02.26
Ser
Monza
Virtus Entella
2
0
W
21.02.26
Ser
Monza
Carrarese
1
0
W
H2H: Catanzaro vs Monza
29.05.26
H2H
Monza
Catanzaro
0
2
W
24.05.26
H2H
Catanzaro
Monza
0
2
L
06.04.26
H2H
Catanzaro
Monza
1
1
D
04.10.25
H2H
Monza
Catanzaro
2
1
L
Last matches: Catanzaro
05.08.26
Fri
Catanzaro
Giugliano
3
0
W
29.07.26
Fri
Catanzaro
Paradiso
3
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
3
0
W
12.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Avellino
3
0
W
08.05.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Bari
2
3
L
25.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Spezia
4
2
W
14.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Modena
2
2
D
06.04.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Monza
1
1
D
08.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Empoli
3
2
W
01.03.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Frosinone
2
2
D
14.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Mantova
2
0
W
07.02.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Reggiana
2
0
W
25.01.26
Ser
Catanzaro
Sampdoria
0
0
D
27.12.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Cesena
2
0
W
13.12.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Avellino
1
0
W
29.11.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Virtus Entella
3
2
W
21.11.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Pescara
3
3
D
02.11.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Venezia
2
1
W
25.10.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Palermo
1
0
W
19.10.25
Ser
Catanzaro
Padova
0
1
L
H2H at home: Catanzaro
24.05.26
H2H
Catanzaro
Monza
0
2
L
06.04.26
H2H
Catanzaro
Monza
1
1
D
Last matches: Monza
24.07.26
Fri
Monza
Galatasaray
2
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Monza
Juve Stabia
2
2
D
01.05.26
Ser
Monza
Mantova
2
3
L
17.04.26
Ser
Monza
Sampdoria
3
0
W
06.04.26
Ser
Monza
Catanzaro
1
1
D
17.03.26
Ser
Monza
Reggiana
0
0
D
07.03.26
Ser
Monza
Spezia
2
4
L
03.03.26
Ser
Monza
Cesena
3
1
W
21.02.26
Ser
Monza
Carrarese
1
0
W
11.02.26
Ser
Monza
Sudtirol
0
0
D
01.02.26
Ser
Monza
Padova
2
1
W
10.01.26
Ser
Monza
Virtus Entella
0
1
L
26.12.25
Ser
Monza
Modena
2
1
W
13.12.25
Ser
Monza
Venezia
0
2
L
30.11.25
Ser
Monza
Juve Stabia
2
2
D
09.11.25
Ser
Monza
Pescara
2
0
W
28.10.25
Ser
Monza
Palermo
3
0
W
18.10.25
Ser
Monza
Frosinone
1
0
W
01.10.25
Ser
Monza
Empoli
1
1
D
12.09.25
Ser
Monza
Avellino
1
2
L
H2H away: Monza
24.05.26
H2H
Catanzaro
Monza
0
2
W
06.04.26
H2H
Catanzaro
Monza
1
1
D

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3
Monza Away
38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation