18.04.2026 16:30
Estadio Municipal de Castalia
Referee: M. Perez
Castellón
Match Timeline
Burgos
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
9'
O. Camara · Assist: L. Alcazar
Castellón
⚽
21'
Curro
Burgos
🟨
24'
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Castellón
🟨
35'
Fabrizio Brignani
Castellón
🟨
40'
Alberto Jimenez
Castellón
🔄
46'
A. Lizancos ↔ A. Bunuel
Burgos
🟨
48'
Sergio González
Burgos
🔄
56'
Ronaldo ↔ B. Cipenga
Castellón
🔄
56'
F. Brignani ↔ A. Sienra
Castellón
🟨
62'
Ousmane Camara
Castellón
🟨
62'
Curro Sánchez
Burgos
🔄
64'
V. Mollejo ↔ I. Cordoba
Burgos
🔄
64'
K. Appin ↔ D. Gonzalez Ballesteros
Burgos
🔄
71'
P. Santiago ↔ A. Mabil
Castellón
🔄
76'
Curro ↔ O. Luengo
Burgos
⚽
79'
A. Calatrava · Assist: A. Mabil
Castellón
🔄
80'
S. Gonzalez ↔ M. Gonzalez
Burgos
⚽
81'
A. Mabil · Assist: A. Jakobsen
Castellón
🔄
83'
A. Jakobsen ↔ I. Suero
Castellón
🔄
83'
A. Calatrava ↔ M. Doue
Castellón
🟨
90+7'
Marc-Olivier Doué
Castellón
🔄
90'
O. Camara ↔ A. Garcia
Castellón
🔄
90+1'
F. Nino ↔ M. Mejia
Burgos

Castellón vs Burgos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 82.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
82.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.6%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Castellón Win 47.4%
Draw 17.2%
Burgos Win 35.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Castellón1.31
Burgos1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Castellón Castellón
WWDLW
58 GF / 44 GA
Burgos Burgos
WLDWL
48 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.61
Average Goals Scored
1.23
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
0.85
20
BTTS Yes
16
17
Over 2.5
14
4.78
Shots on Goal
2.95

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Castellón Castellón 36 matches
Burgos Burgos 39 matches
Castellón Statistic Burgos
16 Wins 20
10 Draws 9
10 Losses 10
58 Goals For 48
44 Goals Against 33
1.61 Avg Goals Scored 1.23
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 0.85
20 BTTS Yes 16
26 Over 1.5 23
17 Over 2.5 14
15 Over 3.5 6
11 Clean Sheets 15
9 Failed To Score 13
4.78 Shots On Goal 2.95
14.28 Total Shots 9.36
5.89 Corners 3.59
53.3% Ball Possession 44.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Burgos look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Burgos. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Castellón Analysis

So far, Castellón have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 58 points from 35 matches. The record of 16 wins, 10 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 58:43 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through O. Camara (10 goals), Álex Calatrava (9 goals), Fabrizio Brignani (6 goals), with creative support from Álex Calatrava (7 assists), B. Cipenga (7 assists), I. Suero (6 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Burgos Analysis

Burgos come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 60 points after 35 matches. The return of 17 wins, 9 draws, and 9 defeats, together with goals at 42:29, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through D. Gonzalez Ballesteros (9 goals), F. Nino (7 goals), Curro (4 goals), with creative support from D. Gonzalez Ballesteros (5 assists), Curro (4 assists), Iván Morante (4 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, their record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Castellón won 3 times, Burgos won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:2 from Castellón's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.8%)
Predicted formations: Castellón 4-4-2 / Burgos 4-4-2
H2H summary: Castellón wins 3, draws 1, Burgos wins 0

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
L D W D W
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
W D D W W
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8 42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
Promotion
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