PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Referee: F. Verissimo
Casa Pia
Match Timeline
SC Braga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
David Sousa
Casa Pia
37'
P. Victor · Assist: D. E. Tiknaz
SC Braga
🟨
45'
Andre Geraldes
Casa Pia
🟨
45'
Pau Víctor
SC Braga
🔄
46'
C. Mendes ↔ Cassiano
Casa Pia
🟨
47'
João Moutinho
SC Braga
🔄
61'
D. Livramento ↔ K. Osundina
Casa Pia
🟨
62'
Lukáš Horníček
SC Braga
🔄
62'
P. Victor ↔ R. Zalazar
SC Braga
🔄
63'
G. Martinez ↔ L. Lelo
SC Braga
🔄
71'
L. Ofori ↔ S. Perez
Casa Pia
🔄
71'
I. Mohamed ↔ R. Brito
Casa Pia
🔄
71'
J. Moutinho ↔ F. Navarro
SC Braga

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 56.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 60.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
56.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
60.2%
-
Probability Distribution
Casa Pia Win 31.5%
Draw 11.7%
SC Braga Win 56.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Casa Pia0.93
SC Braga1.88
Recent Form (Last 5)
Casa Pia Casa Pia
WWDLW
28 GF / 52 GA
SC Braga SC Braga
WLDWL
91 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
0.97
Average Goals Scored
1.94
1.79
Average Goals Conceded
0.87
14
BTTS Yes
21
14
Over 2.5
26
2.83
Shots on Goal
4.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Casa Pia Casa Pia 29 matches
SC Braga SC Braga 47 matches
Casa Pia Statistic SC Braga
5 Wins 27
11 Draws 12
13 Losses 8
28 Goals For 91
52 Goals Against 41
0.97 Avg Goals Scored 1.94
1.79 Avg Goals Conceded 0.87
14 BTTS Yes 21
24 Over 1.5 34
14 Over 2.5 26
10 Over 3.5 16
6 Clean Sheets 22
13 Failed To Score 6
2.83 Shots On Goal 4.43
8.72 Total Shots 10.68
3.79 Corners 4.74
41.7% Ball Possession 54.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by SC Braga's more proactive style and Casa Pia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward SC Braga. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. SC Braga carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 53 points while Casa Pia sit 16 on 26, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Casa Pia expected to line up in 3-4-3 and SC Braga in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward SC Braga having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Casa Pia Analysis

Casa Pia sit 16 with 26 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 11 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 28:52 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Cassiano (5 goals), Gaizka Larrazabal (3 goals), J. Livolant (3 goals), with creative support from J. Livolant (8 assists), Gaizka Larrazabal (4 assists), A. Conte (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

SC Braga Analysis

Placed 4 with 53 points from 29 outings, SC Braga continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 15 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 55:27 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by R. Zalazar (15 goals), R. Horta (14 goals), P. Victor (7 goals), with creative support from R. Zalazar (4 assists), R. Horta (4 assists), P. Victor (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Casa Pia won 3 times, SC Braga won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:17 from Casa Pia's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.7 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.3%)
Predicted formations: Casa Pia 3-4-3 / SC Braga 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Casa Pia wins 3, draws 1, SC Braga wins 6
Stats
Casa Pia Casa Pia
SC Braga SC Braga
Shots on Goal
1
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
2
4 Corner Kicks 5
9 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 2
31% Ball Possession 69%
7 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Goal 2
4 Shots off Goal 4
2 Blocked Shots 2
2 Shots insidebox 2
5 Shots outsidebox 6
1 Goalkeeper Saves 1
312 Total passes 730
221 Passes accurate 639
0.48 expected_goals 0.47
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Casa Pia
Formation
SC Braga
P. Sequeira
P. Sequeira
J. Goulart
J. Goulart
A. Geraldes
A. Geraldes
D. Sousa
D. Sousa
G. Larrazabal
G. Larrazabal
I. Mohamed
I. Mohamed
L. Ofori
L. Ofori
P. Rosas
P. Rosas
J. Livolant
J. Livolant
D. Livramento
D. Livramento
C. Mendes
C. Mendes
L. Hornicek
L. Hornicek
G. Lagerbielke
G. Lagerbielke
P. Oliveira
P. Oliveira
Gabriel Moscardo
Gabriel Moscardo
V. Gomez
V. Gomez
Gorby
Gorby
J. Moutinho
J. Moutinho
G. Martinez
G. Martinez
D. E. Tiknaz
🎯
D. E. Tiknaz
P. Victor
P. Victor
R. Horta
R. Horta
Casa Pia 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
P. Sequeira
G
4
J. Goulart
D
18
A. Geraldes
🟨 45'
D
43
D. Sousa
🟨 18'
D
72
G. Larrazabal
M
24
I. Mohamed
↓ 71'
M
80
L. Ofori
↓ 71'
M
75
P. Rosas
M
29
J. Livolant
F
10
D. Livramento
↓ 61'
F
99
C. Mendes
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
95
I. Mandic
G
42
S. Perez
↑ 71'
M
32
Kiki
F
21
T. Morais
F
13
K. Osundina
↑ 61'
F
90
Cassiano
↑ 46'
F
8
R. Brito
↑ 71'
M
19
K. Prieto
F
3
Kaly
D
SC Braga 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
1
L. Hornicek
🟨 62'
G
14
G. Lagerbielke
D
15
P. Oliveira
D
17
Gabriel Moscardo
D
2
V. Gomez
M
29
Gorby
M
8
J. Moutinho
↓ 71' 🟨 47'
M
77
G. Martinez
↓ 63'
M
34
D. E. Tiknaz
🎯 37'
F
18
P. Victor
⚽ 37' ↓ 62' 🟨 45'
F
21
R. Horta
F
Substitutes
12
T. Sa
G
6
Vitor Carvalho
M
5
L. Lelo
↑ 63'
D
41
Y. da Rocha
M
20
M. Dorgeles
M
39
F. Navarro
↑ 71'
F
10
R. Zalazar
↑ 62'
M
9
A. El Ouazzani
F
90
Luisinho
M
Last matches: Casa Pia
28.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Torreense
2
0
W
20.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Torreense
0
0
D
16.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
1
D
11.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Guimaraes
1
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Tondela
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
GIL Vicente
1
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
0
0
D
12.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Alverca
1
3
L
06.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Benfica
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Estrela
0
4
L
07.03.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Estoril
0
0
D
01.03.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Moreirense
1
1
D
23.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Famalicao
0
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Arouca
3
2
W
08.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Nacional
0
0
D
02.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
FC Porto
2
1
W
23.01.26
Pri
Casa Pia
AVS
3
3
D
16.01.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Sporting CP
0
3
L
04.01.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
3
L
28.12.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Guimaraes
0
0
D
Last matches: SC Braga
16.05.26
Pri
SC Braga
Estrela
2
2
D
11.05.26
Pri
SC Braga
Benfica
2
2
D
07.05.26
UEF
SC Braga
SC Freiburg
1
3
L
03.05.26
Pri
SC Braga
Estoril
1
1
D
30.04.26
UEF
SC Braga
SC Freiburg
2
1
W
26.04.26
Pri
SC Braga
Santa Clara
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
SC Braga
Famalicao
2
2
D
16.04.26
UEF
SC Braga
Real Betis
4
2
W
12.04.26
Pri
SC Braga
Arouca
1
0
W
08.04.26
UEF
SC Braga
Real Betis
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
SC Braga
Moreirense
1
0
W
22.03.26
Pri
SC Braga
FC Porto
1
2
L
18.03.26
UEF
SC Braga
Ferencvarosi TC
4
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
SC Braga
Ferencvarosi TC
0
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
SC Braga
Sporting CP
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pri
SC Braga
Nacional
2
1
W
21.02.26
Pri
SC Braga
Guimaraes
3
2
W
14.02.26
Pri
SC Braga
GIL Vicente
1
2
L
08.02.26
Pri
SC Braga
Rio Ave
3
0
W
02.02.26
Pri
SC Braga
AVS
4
0
W
H2H: Casa Pia vs SC Braga
23.04.26
H2H
Casa Pia
SC Braga
0
1
L
26.10.25
H2H
SC Braga
Casa Pia
4
0
L
10.05.25
H2H
Casa Pia
SC Braga
2
1
W
29.12.24
H2H
SC Braga
Casa Pia
1
2
W
05.05.24
H2H
SC Braga
Casa Pia
4
3
L
30.12.23
H2H
Casa Pia
SC Braga
1
3
L
01.11.23
H2H
SC Braga
Casa Pia
1
1
D
21.04.23
H2H
Casa Pia
SC Braga
0
1
L
03.12.22
H2H
Casa Pia
SC Braga
0
1
L
06.11.22
H2H
SC Braga
Casa Pia
0
1
W
Last matches: Casa Pia
28.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Torreense
2
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Rio Ave
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Tondela
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
0
0
D
06.04.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Benfica
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Moreirense
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
Arouca
3
2
W
02.02.26
Pri
Casa Pia
FC Porto
2
1
W
23.01.26
Pri
Casa Pia
AVS
3
3
D
28.12.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Guimaraes
0
0
D
13.12.25
Pri
Casa Pia
GIL Vicente
1
1
D
29.11.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Alverca
0
2
L
01.11.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Estrela
3
5
L
03.10.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Estoril
2
2
D
21.09.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Famalicao
1
1
D
30.08.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Nacional
0
2
L
08.08.25
Pri
Casa Pia
Sporting CP
0
2
L
H2H at home: Casa Pia
23.04.26
H2H
Casa Pia
SC Braga
0
1
L
10.05.25
H2H
Casa Pia
SC Braga
2
1
W
30.12.23
H2H
Casa Pia
SC Braga
1
3
L
21.04.23
H2H
Casa Pia
SC Braga
0
1
L
03.12.22
H2H
Casa Pia
SC Braga
0
1
L
Last matches: SC Braga
11.05.26
Pri
SC Braga
Benfica
2
2
D
07.05.26
UEF
SC Braga
SC Freiburg
1
3
L
26.04.26
Pri
SC Braga
Santa Clara
1
2
L
16.04.26
UEF
SC Braga
Real Betis
4
2
W
04.04.26
Pri
SC Braga
Moreirense
1
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
SC Braga
Ferencvarosi TC
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
SC Braga
Nacional
2
1
W
14.02.26
Pri
SC Braga
GIL Vicente
1
2
L
02.02.26
Pri
SC Braga
AVS
4
0
W
29.01.26
UEF
SC Braga
GO Ahead Eagles
0
0
D
18.01.26
Pri
SC Braga
Tondela
1
0
W
03.01.26
Pri
SC Braga
Estrela
3
3
D
19.12.25
Pri
SC Braga
Estoril
0
1
L
11.12.25
UEF
SC Braga
Nice
1
0
W
06.12.25
Pri
SC Braga
Famalicao
2
1
W
01.12.25
Pri
SC Braga
Arouca
4
0
W
27.11.25
UEF
SC Braga
Rangers
1
1
D
02.11.25
Pri
SC Braga
FC Porto
1
2
L
05.10.25
Pri
SC Braga
Sporting CP
1
1
D
02.10.25
UEF
SC Braga
Celtic
2
0
W
H2H away: SC Braga
23.04.26
H2H
Casa Pia
SC Braga
0
1
W
10.05.25
H2H
Casa Pia
SC Braga
2
1
L
30.12.23
H2H
Casa Pia
SC Braga
1
3
W
21.04.23
H2H
Casa Pia
SC Braga
0
1
W
03.12.22
H2H
Casa Pia
SC Braga
0
1
W

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2