ENGLAND NATIONAL LEAGUE
12.09.2026 16:30
Brunton Park

Carlisle vs Southend Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 63.9%
Odds 1.57
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.63
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
63.9%
1.57
BTTS Yes
88%
1.53
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.63
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.12
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Carlisle Win 36.1%
Draw 19.6%
Southend Win 44.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Carlisle1.88
Southend1.72
Recent Form (Last 5)
Carlisle Carlisle
WWDLW
20 GF / 14 GA
Southend Southend
WLDWL
20 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
2.22
Average Goals Scored
1.82
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
7
BTTS Yes
9
6
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Carlisle Carlisle 9 matches
Southend Southend 11 matches
Carlisle Statistic Southend
4 Wins 5
2 Draws 3
3 Losses 3
20 Goals For 20
14 Goals Against 15
2.22 Avg Goals Scored 1.82
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
7 BTTS Yes 9
9 Over 1.5 10
6 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 6
1 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Southend. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Southend having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Carlisle Analysis

Carlisle sit 10 with 8 points after 5 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, while the 12:8 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Southend Analysis

From their first 5 matches, Southend have collected 10 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Their overall return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 9:6 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Carlisle won 3 times, Southend won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:6 from Carlisle's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.5%)
H2H summary: Carlisle wins 3, draws 2, Southend wins 1

Standings

Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 16:8 8 16
W W W W W
2 7 4 2 1 12:7 5 14
W W D W D
3 6 4 1 1 15:9 6 13
W W L D W
4 6 4 1 1 12:8 4 13
W D L W W
5 6 4 0 2 10:8 2 12
L W W L W
6 6 4 0 2 7:6 1 12
L L W W W
7 6 3 2 1 13:9 4 11
D W W L W
8 6 3 2 1 12:8 4 11
L W W W D
9 6 3 2 1 7:4 3 11
W D W D L
10 6 3 1 2 8:7 1 10
L D W W L
11 6 3 0 3 7:8 -1 9
W W W L L
12 7 3 0 4 5:6 -1 9
L W L L L
13 6 3 0 3 7:10 -3 9
W L L L W
14 6 2 2 2 13:10 3 8
L W D W D
15 6 2 1 3 8:8 0 7
D L L W W
16 6 2 1 3 11:12 -1 7
D L L W L
17 6 2 0 4 9:10 -1 6
L W L W L
18 6 1 2 3 8:9 -1 5
W D L D L
19 6 1 2 3 12:16 -4 5
D L W L L
20 6 1 2 3 7:11 -4 5
L W D L L
21 6 1 1 4 8:12 -4 4
L L W L L
22 6 1 1 4 5:9 -4 4
D L L L W
23 6 1 1 4 4:10 -6 4
L D L W L
24 6 0 1 5 6:17 -11 1
D L L L L
Promotion - League Two
Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation