ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE
--.--.---- --:--
Cardiff City Stadium
Referee: D. Rock
Cardiff
Match Timeline
Port Vale
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
62'
G. Osho ↔ W. Fish
Cardiff
🔄
62'
C. Robinson ↔ C. Willock
Cardiff
🔄
62'
A. Robertson ↔ O. Kellyman
Cardiff
🔄
72'
J. Lawrence-Gabriel ↔ O. Hernandez
Port Vale
🔄
72'
M. Sherif ↔ B. Waine
Port Vale
🔄
72'
G. Hall ↔ E. Archer
Port Vale
🔄
72'
L. Gordon ↔ J. Headley
Port Vale
79'
R. Colwill · Assist: C. Willock
Cardiff
🟨
81'
David Turnbull
Cardiff
🔄
83'
C. Scanlon ↔ J. Bagan
Cardiff
🔄
85'
R. Croasdale ↔ J. Shipley
Port Vale
🔄
90+2'
J. Colwill ↔ R. Wintle
Cardiff

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 55.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 50.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
55.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
50.4%
-
Probability Distribution
Cardiff Win 82.6%
Draw 10.1%
Port Vale Win 7.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cardiff1.62
Port Vale0.94
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cardiff Cardiff
WWDLW
80 GF / 45 GA
Port Vale Port Vale
WLDWL
42 GF / 63 GA
Key Stats
1.82
Average Goals Scored
0.88
1.02
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
23
BTTS Yes
15
23
Over 2.5
18
5.16
Shots on Goal
3.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cardiff Cardiff 44 matches
Port Vale Port Vale 48 matches
Cardiff Statistic Port Vale
25 Wins 14
10 Draws 12
9 Losses 22
80 Goals For 42
45 Goals Against 63
1.82 Avg Goals Scored 0.88
1.02 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
23 BTTS Yes 15
34 Over 1.5 24
23 Over 2.5 18
15 Over 3.5 12
16 Clean Sheets 17
7 Failed To Score 23
5.16 Shots On Goal 3.08
15.14 Total Shots 10.96
6.14 Corners 4.85
61.2% Ball Possession 44.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Cardiff's more proactive style and Port Vale's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Cardiff arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 85 points compared to Port Vale in 23 on 39, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Port Vale. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Cardiff Analysis

Placed 2 with 85 points from 43 outings, Cardiff continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 25 wins, 10 draws, and 8 losses, while the 76:42 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Y. Salech (13 goals), O. Kellyman (9 goals), C. Willock (8 goals), with creative support from Ollie Tanner (11 assists), R. Wintle (7 assists), R. Kpakio (6 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 15 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Port Vale Analysis

Port Vale approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 23 with 39 points from 42 matches. The overall return of 9 wins, 12 draws, and 21 defeats with a 30:54 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on L. Tolaj (17 goals), D. Cole (6 goals), R. Croasdale (4 goals), with creative support from R. Curtis (6 assists), L. Tolaj (4 assists), R. Paton (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 3 draws, and 12 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Cardiff won 2 times, Port Vale won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:2 from Cardiff's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (92.7%)
Predicted formations: Cardiff 4-2-3-1 / Port Vale 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cardiff wins 2, draws 1, Port Vale wins 0
Stats
Cardiff Cardiff
Port Vale Port Vale
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
2
6 Corner Kicks 6
3 Fouls 6
2 Offsides 3
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Goal 2
7 Shots off Goal 2
3 Blocked Shots 2
8 Shots insidebox 6
6 Shots outsidebox 0
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
576 Total passes 291
495 Passes accurate 204
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Cardiff
Formation
Port Vale
N. Trott
N. Trott
R. Kpakio
R. Kpakio
G. Osho
G. Osho
D. Lawlor
D. Lawlor
C. Scanlon
C. Scanlon
J. Colwill
J. Colwill
A. Robertson
A. Robertson
D. Turnbull
D. Turnbull
R. Colwill
R. Colwill
Y. Salech
Y. Salech
C. Robinson
C. Robinson
J. Gauci
J. Gauci
J. Lawrence-Gabriel
J. Lawrence-Gabriel
C. Humphreys
C. Humphreys
C. Hall
C. Hall
E. Campbell
E. Campbell
R. Walters
R. Walters
R. Croasdale
R. Croasdale
G. Hall
G. Hall
B. Garrity
B. Garrity
L. Gordon
L. Gordon
M. Sherif
M. Sherif
Cardiff 4-3-1-2
Starting XI
13
N. Trott
G
44
R. Kpakio
D
4
G. Osho
↓ 62'
D
48
D. Lawlor
D
23
C. Scanlon
↓ 83'
D
27
J. Colwill
↓ 90+2'
M
18
A. Robertson
↓ 62'
M
14
D. Turnbull
🟨 81'
M
10
R. Colwill
⚽ 79'
M
22
Y. Salech
F
47
C. Robinson
↓ 62'
F
Substitutes
2
W. Fish
↑ 62'
D
11
O. Tanner
F
3
J. Bagan
↑ 83'
D
16
C. Willock
🎯 79' ↑ 62'
M
38
P. Ng
D
6
R. Wintle
↑ 90+2'
M
8
O. Kellyman
↑ 62'
M
Port Vale 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
46
J. Gauci
G
6
J. Lawrence-Gabriel
↓ 72'
D
25
C. Humphreys
D
5
C. Hall
D
27
E. Campbell
D
12
R. Walters
M
18
R. Croasdale
↓ 85'
M
33
G. Hall
↓ 72'
M
8
B. Garrity
M
15
L. Gordon
↓ 72'
M
21
M. Sherif
↓ 72'
Substitutes
13
B. Amos
G
50
O. Hernandez
↑ 72'
F
19
B. Waine
↑ 72'
F
11
E. Archer
↑ 72'
M
35
T. Magloire
D
26
J. Shipley
↑ 85'
M
3
J. Headley
↑ 72'
D
Last matches: Cardiff
02.05.26
Lea
Cardiff
Mansfield Town
4
5
L
25.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Northampton
5
1
W
18.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Reading
3
1
W
14.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Huddersfield
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Bolton
2
0
W
06.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Peterborough
1
1
D
21.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Blackpool
0
0
D
17.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Wycombe
0
2
L
14.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Exeter City
4
0
W
10.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Barnsley
1
1
D
07.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Lincoln
0
2
L
28.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Doncaster
4
0
W
21.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Plymouth
2
5
L
17.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
AFC Wimbledon
4
1
W
14.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Luton
3
1
W
07.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Rotherham
3
0
W
31.01.26
Lea
Cardiff
Burton Albion
2
2
D
27.01.26
Lea
Cardiff
Barnsley
4
0
W
24.01.26
Lea
Cardiff
Stockport County
1
1
D
17.01.26
Lea
Cardiff
Bradford
2
1
W
Last matches: Port Vale
02.05.26
Lea
Port Vale
Lincoln
0
2
L
28.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Stockport County
2
1
W
25.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Plymouth
1
2
L
19.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Wigan
0
0
D
16.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Peterborough
3
1
W
14.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Barnsley
0
0
D
07.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Rotherham
1
0
W
04.04.26
FA
Port Vale
Chelsea
0
7
L
28.03.26
Lea
Port Vale
Wycombe
0
4
L
24.03.26
Lea
Port Vale
Doncaster
0
1
L
21.03.26
Lea
Port Vale
Bolton
1
0
W
17.03.26
Lea
Port Vale
Blackpool
2
3
L
14.03.26
Lea
Port Vale
Huddersfield
0
0
D
11.03.26
Lea
Port Vale
Bradford
0
2
L
08.03.26
FA
Port Vale
Sunderland
1
0
W
03.03.26
FA
Port Vale
Bristol City
1
0
W
28.02.26
Lea
Port Vale
Luton
1
1
D
24.02.26
Lea
Port Vale
Northampton
1
0
W
21.02.26
Lea
Port Vale
Reading
1
1
D
17.02.26
Lea
Port Vale
Stevenage
1
2
L
H2H: Cardiff vs Port Vale
22.04.26
H2H
Cardiff
Port Vale
1
0
W
07.08.25
H2H
Port Vale
Cardiff
0
0
D
26.08.14
H2H
Port Vale
Cardiff
2
3
W
Last matches: Cardiff
25.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Northampton
5
1
W
11.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Bolton
2
0
W
21.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Blackpool
0
0
D
17.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Wycombe
0
2
L
07.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Lincoln
0
2
L
17.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
AFC Wimbledon
4
1
W
14.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Luton
3
1
W
27.01.26
Lea
Cardiff
Barnsley
4
0
W
24.01.26
Lea
Cardiff
Stockport County
1
1
D
04.01.26
Lea
Cardiff
Wigan
1
0
W
29.12.25
Lea
Cardiff
Stevenage
2
1
W
26.12.25
Lea
Cardiff
Exeter City
1
0
W
13.12.25
Lea
Cardiff
Doncaster
4
3
W
06.12.25
Lea
Cardiff
Huddersfield
3
2
W
29.11.25
Lea
Cardiff
Mansfield Town
3
0
W
18.10.25
Lea
Cardiff
Reading
2
1
W
04.10.25
Lea
Cardiff
Leyton Orient
4
3
W
30.09.25
Lea
Cardiff
Burton Albion
0
1
L
20.09.25
Lea
Cardiff
Bradford
1
3
L
30.08.25
Lea
Cardiff
Plymouth
4
0
W
H2H at home: Cardiff
22.04.26
H2H
Cardiff
Port Vale
1
0
W
Last matches: Port Vale
28.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Stockport County
2
1
W
25.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Plymouth
1
2
L
16.04.26
Lea
Port Vale
Peterborough
3
1
W
04.04.26
FA
Port Vale
Chelsea
0
7
L
28.03.26
Lea
Port Vale
Wycombe
0
4
L
24.03.26
Lea
Port Vale
Doncaster
0
1
L
17.03.26
Lea
Port Vale
Blackpool
2
3
L
24.02.26
Lea
Port Vale
Northampton
1
0
W
17.02.26
Lea
Port Vale
Stevenage
1
2
L
31.01.26
Lea
Port Vale
Leyton Orient
1
0
W
17.01.26
Lea
Port Vale
Mansfield Town
0
3
L
29.12.25
Lea
Port Vale
Bradford
0
1
L
26.12.25
Lea
Port Vale
Huddersfield
0
5
L
13.12.25
Lea
Port Vale
Luton
2
2
D
29.11.25
Lea
Port Vale
Lincoln
0
1
L
08.11.25
Lea
Port Vale
Bolton
0
4
L
18.10.25
Lea
Port Vale
Wigan
0
1
L
11.10.25
Lea
Port Vale
AFC Wimbledon
1
1
D
27.09.25
Lea
Port Vale
Barnsley
2
0
W
13.09.25
Lea
Port Vale
Exeter City
2
0
W
H2H away: Port Vale
22.04.26
H2H
Cardiff
Port Vale
1
0
L

Standings

League One: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 31 10 5 89:41 48 103
W W W D W
2 46 27 10 9 90:50 40 91
L W W W D
3 46 22 11 13 71:58 13 77
W L W L D
4 46 22 11 13 58:51 7 77
W D D D L
5 46 19 18 9 70:52 18 75
L D D W L
6 46 21 12 13 49:46 3 75
W D W D L
7 46 21 11 14 68:56 12 74
W W W D W
8 46 22 7 17 75:63 12 73
W W D W D
9 46 18 13 15 74:64 10 67
W L D D D
10 46 16 17 13 62:50 12 65
W D W W D
11 46 17 12 17 69:58 11 63
W L L D L
12 46 16 15 15 64:60 4 63
L D L L L
13 46 17 9 20 54:65 -11 60
W W W W L
14 46 17 9 20 50:69 -19 60
W D L W W
15 46 15 14 17 68:73 -5 59
L W L L D
16 46 14 14 18 49:58 -9 56
L L D W W
17 46 13 15 18 50:60 -10 54
D D D W D
18 46 15 8 23 64:68 -4 53
L D L D L
19 46 15 8 23 51:72 -21 53
L W L L L
20 46 14 10 22 59:71 -12 52
D L L D L
21 46 12 13 21 52:61 -9 49
L D D D W
22 46 10 12 24 36:61 -25 42
L W L L D
23 46 10 11 25 41:71 -30 41
L D L W L
24 46 9 8 29 39:74 -35 35
L L L L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two