UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Calvary
Match Timeline
NEC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
L. Olaboro
Calvary
90'
S. Sukuru
Calvary

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 88.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 97.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65%
-
BTTS BTTS No
88.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
97.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Calvary Win 32.2%
Draw 2.8%
NEC Win 65%
Expected Goals (xG)
Calvary0.54
NEC1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Calvary Calvary
WWDLW
12 GF / 36 GA
NEC NEC
WLDWL
28 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
0.43
Average Goals Scored
1
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
0.71
6
BTTS Yes
11
5
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Calvary Calvary 28 matches
NEC NEC 28 matches
Calvary Statistic NEC
3 Wins 12
9 Draws 12
16 Losses 4
12 Goals For 28
36 Goals Against 20
0.43 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 0.71
6 BTTS Yes 11
11 Over 1.5 12
5 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 4
10 Clean Sheets 16
19 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by NEC's more proactive style and Calvary's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors NEC. NEC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 48 points while Calvary sit 15 on 18, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward NEC having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Calvary Analysis

With 18 points from 29 games and a place of 15, Calvary still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 3 wins, 9 draws, and 17 defeats with a 12:39 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on L. Olaboro (7 goals), S. Oriokot (2 goals), E. Ojok (1 goals), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

NEC Analysis

NEC sit 6 with 48 points after 27 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 12 draws, and 3 losses, while the 27:16 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Dhata (3 goals), H. Sebwalunyo (2 goals), J. Seremba (2 goals), with creative support from H. Sebwalunyo (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Calvary won 1 times, NEC won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Calvary's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (97.2%)
H2H summary: Calvary wins 1, draws 0, NEC wins 1
Last matches: Calvary
19.05.26
Pre
Calvary
UPDF
0
0
D
12.05.26
Pre
Calvary
URA
1
1
D
06.05.26
Pre
Calvary
Police
1
0
W
29.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
25.04.26
Pre
Calvary
KCCA
1
0
W
22.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Kitara
0
0
D
15.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Lugazi
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Calvary
Vipers
0
1
L
10.03.26
Pre
Calvary
Maroons
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pre
Calvary
BUL
1
5
L
18.02.26
Pre
Calvary
Express
0
0
D
12.02.26
Pre
Calvary
Mbarara City
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Calvary
Kitara
0
1
L
27.01.26
Pre
Calvary
URA
0
0
D
21.01.26
Pre
Calvary
Police
0
2
L
07.01.26
Pre
Calvary
BUL
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
Calvary
SC Villa
0
1
L
13.12.25
Pre
Calvary
Mbarara City
1
1
D
09.12.25
Pre
Calvary
Vipers
0
0
D
Last matches: NEC
20.05.26
Pre
NEC
SC Villa
1
4
L
09.05.26
Pre
NEC
Kitara
1
0
W
28.04.26
Pre
NEC
BUL
1
0
W
24.04.26
Pre
NEC
Mbarara City
0
0
D
21.04.26
Pre
NEC
Express
0
0
D
18.04.26
Pre
NEC
Maroons
1
0
W
09.04.26
Pre
NEC
URA
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
NEC
Police
1
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
NEC
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
06.03.26
Pre
NEC
Lugazi
2
0
W
03.03.26
Pre
NEC
UPDF
1
0
W
17.02.26
Pre
NEC
Vipers
1
1
D
13.02.26
Pre
NEC
KCCA
3
1
W
31.01.26
Pre
NEC
Express
0
0
D
27.01.26
Pre
NEC
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
NEC
Kitara
3
3
D
07.01.26
Pre
NEC
Lugazi
1
0
W
16.12.25
Pre
NEC
UPDF
0
0
D
12.12.25
Pre
NEC
KCCA
1
2
L
05.12.25
Pre
NEC
Vipers
1
1
D
H2H: Calvary vs NEC
23.05.26
H2H
Calvary
NEC
2
0
W
25.11.25
H2H
NEC
Calvary
1
0
L
Last matches: Calvary
06.05.26
Pre
Calvary
Police
1
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Calvary
KCCA
1
0
W
15.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Lugazi
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
Calvary
Maroons
0
1
L
18.02.26
Pre
Calvary
Express
0
0
D
31.01.26
Pre
Calvary
Kitara
0
1
L
27.01.26
Pre
Calvary
URA
0
0
D
07.01.26
Pre
Calvary
BUL
0
1
L
13.12.25
Pre
Calvary
Mbarara City
1
1
D
09.12.25
Pre
Calvary
Vipers
0
0
D
19.11.25
Pre
Calvary
UPDF
0
1
L
07.11.25
Pre
Calvary
Entebbe UPPC
2
4
L
H2H at home: Calvary
23.05.26
H2H
Calvary
NEC
2
0
W
Last matches: NEC
09.05.26
Pre
NEC
Kitara
1
0
W
28.04.26
Pre
NEC
BUL
1
0
W
21.04.26
Pre
NEC
Express
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
NEC
Police
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
NEC
Lugazi
2
0
W
17.02.26
Pre
NEC
Vipers
1
1
D
27.01.26
Pre
NEC
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
16.12.25
Pre
NEC
UPDF
0
0
D
12.12.25
Pre
NEC
KCCA
1
2
L
29.11.25
Pre
NEC
Maroons
1
1
D
20.11.25
Pre
NEC
SC Villa
1
2
L
01.11.25
Pre
NEC
Mbarara City
1
0
W
25.10.25
Pre
NEC
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
02.10.25
Pre
NEC
URA
1
1
D
H2H away: NEC
23.05.26
H2H
Calvary
NEC
2
0
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6
NEC Away
30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League